Gary Matthews

We've been right more often than wrong over the years writing these yearbooks. We spend a pretty good amount of time looking over numbers and performances before making assessments (even when those assessments get a bit of short shrift when we tire of pointing out the same issues with a player again and again, like this year), which, admittedly, are only opinion, though our track record has been pretty good. When the general fan base was going nuts over Jerry Hairston, we pointed our concerns that led us to believe he was more likely to be a marginal/oridinary ML player. When Ryan Kohlmeier was the Bullpen Flavor of the Month, we predicted in the season-after Yearbook that he'd lose his job and be out of the majors by mid-season.

The four most intriguing players on this Orioles team were Geronimo Gil, Jay Gibbons, John Stephens, and Gary Matthews.

Matthews has been around; a six foot three tools guy with a ML pedigree who has gotten trials with the Padres, Cubs, Pirates and Mets, he's shown a bit of speed, good defense, and a reasonably capable bat with the Orioles. Have the O's found a bona-fide ML outfielder?

Probably not. As much as we'd all like to think so, Gary has a lot of indicators going against him. He's already 28, and although there are outfielders who don't break in until then that have solid careers, there aren't many. When they do break in that late, it's often for only one to three seasons (think: Chris Singleton, who hit .300 at age 28 two years ago). Second, there's the question of Sample Size. This trial is only 330 AB old, too early to make a real assessment. It's a real shame he got hurt; he had shown a decline in BA over the two months prior to his season ended (from a .292 in June to .266 in July to .260 in August); it would have been important to know how he would have fared into September. Third, he only had two months of any real power, and that was doubles power, back in May and June. After that, he reverted to his more typical singles-hitting CF. Unfortunately, with the O's, he was most often in right field.

Matthews is most likely a decent fourth or fifth outfielder, who probably shouldn't play against lefthanders. That's a nice role, especially since he has some speed and plays center reasonably well. But it's nothing to build around when a team needs solid offense.

TO CONTRIBUTE EFFECTIVELY IN 2003, HE SHOULD:

(1) Find a way to get some power out of that 6 foot three 210 pound frame.

(2) Draw some more walks.

(3) Maintain a BA in the high .280's.

(4) possibly be platooned or be a reserve outfielder rather than a starter.

Notes: only hit .228 in day games...once Gary was at 0-2, he was dead. He hit .083 with a 0-2 count, and .127 in all at-bats that began 0-2...he hit .312 in 77 AB in the #2 slot.

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