Welcome to the Bungle Bob's Backstop for July 18, 2005

Welcome to the Bungle...I mean, Jungle.

Or do I?

If there's one thing that this past weekend's games made clear, it's that there is nothing clear about the AL East, save one thing:

None of the teams look good enough to win it.

That's not much of a shock to Orioles fans, who for the most part understood going into 2005 that this was a team poised on the cusp of competitiveness, but one that would have to have some unexpected boosts from, say, a rejuvenated Sammy Sosa, or a suddenly reliable Bruce Chen, in order to be a surprise contender. They got one, but not the other, and although they broke out on top with the sudden emergence of Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard as star-caliber players (one looking as if he's there to stay, the other returning tonight after a long absence that made for some press rumblings and uneasy fans), no one seemed to be totally surprised (though disappointed, of course) by their June fall from grace.

The Orioles have talent, and an appealing mix of veterans and youth. What they don't have is an outstanding defensive team, a representative offensive outfield, a stopper in the rotation, and a middle relief squad. They are also burdened with poor performance on the part of several players on whom they count for at least average performance, namely Sosa, Ponson, and Bigbie. These three, along with Steve Kline, the departed Steve Reed, and Jorge Julio, have been pebbles in the hiking boots of the O's as they make their way along the long trail to respectability.

The O's hope for a shot in the arm from Javy Lopez and Erik Bedard. The interesting thing is that Sal Fasano has been putting up numbers the last three weeks that aren't likely to be surpassed by Lopez' return. Of course, he's unlikely to maintain that pace, certainly, but the fact is that for the past few weeks, Fasano has been a large plus offensively, so I'm not sure that Javy can have a huge impact on the team offensively in terms of a tangible improvement in their current status...just in the status of what the team can expect from this point forward. I'm not sure how much of an overall difference it will make...it will enable the team to probably keep the status quo, but that's probably not good enough, considering the overall pitching.

Bedard? No one knows what a pitcher will do coming off of an injury, especially such a long break. His minor-league performances were certainly encouraging, but we'll have to hold our collective breath and see.

Now as for the other two contenders...

Both teams made strong cases for finishing at the top of the heap this weekend...and they both made cases for winning 85 games and finishing a handful of games back.

The Red Sox are a dynamic offensive club, as are the Yankees with the reemergence of Jason Giambi (who somehow is acquiring an undeserved mantle of character all of a sudden. Amazing what a little production will do for the old reputation).

But the Sox' pitching is in disarray. Arroyo is providing serviceable though increasingly shaky innings, and Wakefield is pretty much his typical self. But it's Matt Clement who saved this team in the first half with his terrific pitching, and he was destroyed by the Yankees , and has had a miserable July. Wade Miller has not been the godsend that the Red Sox had hoped for. The bullpen looks like the Orioles', except the Orioles have a closer and no setup man, and the Sox have a setup man and no closer. (The Yankees have both, but only until Tom Gordon's arm falls off sometime in August.) They tried their own version of Aura and Mystique by trotting Curt Schilling out there to save Game One, but instead set the tone for the overall weekend by watching him serve up a couple of meatballs that the Yankees greedily devoured for a late victory.

As for the Yankees, who knows what to make of this team? Their fans are screaming "bad luck", and certainly that's a factor. Teams often make their own bad luck, however, such as the Orioles having no offensive outfielders ready in the minors to step up and take the place of a faltering Bigbie or Sosa. Likewise, the Yankees went into the season without the surplus of pitching in the minors that they would probably need, heading into the season with sure-fire injuries in Brown and Wright, and likely ones in Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina.

Most everyone in the game was caught up in the Carl Pavano facade, just like they are currently embroiled in the A.J. Burnett/Jason Schmidt dramas. He wasn't as suspect as Wright or Eric Milton, to be sure, but there were plenty of warning signs out there that the polish on his star might not hold up under the scrutiny of the season. (I fully expect to hear the "he can't pitch in NY" whispers in the off-season, as was said about Irabu, Weaver, Contreras, Garland, et al. This seems to be the lasting legacy of Ed Whitson on this franchise, the one guy who actually didn't seem to have the nerve to pitch in the Apple, though it's quite possible he was most guilty of developing an allergy to Billy Martin. Every time a pitcher has an off year, or doesn't meet unreasonable expectations based on his past game - rather than reflecting on what his true ability might be - this potential character flaw crops up as an explanation, and deals are made.) So the Yankees were the unlucky winners in the sweepstakes, leaving the Orioles' fans, among others, disappointed, while the Belfryites remained concerned over the pitching of the O's while recognizing that Pavano wasn't likely to be the answer. (Neither is Barnett likely to be, either, as much as we hope, if the team makes the deal, that he is.)

So the Yankees made a lot of their own luck. No one held a gun to their heads and forced them to sign Tony Womack. No one made them ignore their defensive problem in center field. No one forced them to spend mega-bucks on players to the point that even their own bloat had to come to a halt eventually, leaving them filling slots with journeymen like Buddy Groom, Tim Redding, Bubba Crosby, Tony Womack, Jason Anderson, Wayne Franklin, Darrell May and Scott Proctor, or untested kids not ready for prime time. (If I were a Yankee fan, I'd shudder to think where the team would be if Cano hadn't been lightning in a bottle, because he's played above expectations so far.)

Now they have lost the other pleasant surprise of their season, starter Chien-Ming Wang. Kevin Brown comes back from the DL again tonight, and they have to cross their fingers and hope he can get the job done, because they are already forced to depend on Aaron Small to come up as anything but on Wednesday, and for Al Leiter to continue channeling his best days with the Mets.

The Yankees can hit. They are truly dangerous with Giambi's "return" to his previous level of play. But they have huge leaks in the pitching dam, and there will be questions as to just how many fingers they will able to use to plug all the holes (Randy Johnson still looks primed for at least one more injury-related bad stretch to me, and Mussina's been more erratic than one might hope for...the other three slots are even larger questions). They are probably the worst defensive team among any of the playoff contenders in either league, and they have gaping holes in middle relief and a setup guy who is prime for a huge falloff or injury.

Still, might they be the favorite? Possibly. The Sox have all sorts of pitching problems of their own, and they just lost 3 of 4 to the Yankees on their home court. The internal squabbling might turn external at some point if the Yankees could manage to get out to a lead, especially with the Pinstripers' own pitching woes. They just finished losing 3 of 4 to both the O's and the Yankees.

That leaves the Orioles. Ponson, the middle relief, the absence of a veteran stopper, the erratic offense helmed by the worst-hitting outfield in the majors, the questions concerning the management team...

Not exactly a pretty picture, is it?

Fans of all three clubs are likely to be frustrated, ecstatic, sorrowful, excited, disappointed and crazed before it's all over...and that's just watching any given series!

Do you deal? Not deal? React? Overreact?

Welcome...to the Bungle. Welcome to the 2005 AL East.