Welcome to oblivion.  That's where the Orioles reside, as a franchise, in the macrobaseball world of MLB.  The Orioles are one of those franchises that have fallen into the position where the baseball world simply takes for granted their noncompetitive status...like the Royals and the Pirates and the Devil Rays, to name a few.  Like the Tigers, until this season.  This is what happens when you post a losing record for eight straight seasons and find yourself more than halfway into a likely ninth.

With Detroit a virtual lock to break a 12-season losing streak this year, the Orioles find themselves in select company.  The Milwaukee Brewers haven't had a winning season since 1992--13 straight seasons--but they were .500 on the dot in 2005 and have a legitimate chance to finish with a winning season in 2006.  The Pittsburgh Pirates are well on their way to a MLB-worst 14th straight losing season this year.  The Tampa Bay Devil Rays appear more or less as likely as the Orioles to post a losing record for their ninth straight year.  That's it.  Only one team--the Pirates--is likely to end 2006 with a longer intact streak of losing seasons than the Orioles.  And when you lose this repeatedly, you're relegated to baseball oblivion until and unless you conclusively demonstrate that you no longer belong there--like the 2006 Tigers.

Unfortunately for Baltimore fans, the 2006 Orioles have conclusively demonstrated nothing of the sort.

The Orioles enter the All-Star break eight games under .500.  It was nice to see the club hit the break having won a couple of games in a row and having taken a rare road series.  

But there's no avoiding the franchise's shortcomings as the season hits the symbolic, if not mathematical, halfway point:

• The pitching staff has the second worst ERA in the American League.

• The defense is well below average (ranking 20th in MLB in Defensive Efficiency).

• The offense is impatient, is suffering a serious recent power shortage and is on a long, slow slide below the AL median.

• The baserunning and defensive fundamentals have been dreadful all season long.

• A minor league system nearly void of position players performing like prospects deserving of promotion to the next level.

And yet, there are some bright signs--Erik Bedard's sustained turnaround (a return to the halcyon days of April and May, 2005); Nick Markakis' slow, steady improvement at the plate; strong bullpen performances by rookies Chris Britton and Kurt Birkins; Chris Ray's demonstration that confidence in him has been well-placed; Brandon Fahey performing like someone deserving of a slot on a big league roster; a minor league system with what appears to be the locus of a critical mass of impressive arms.

So, is the glass 65% empty or 35% full?  That's a matter of interpretation, but there's plenty of work to be done, regardless.  Let's see how the roster should--or at least could--be reshaped over the next few weeks and months to allow the franchise to take the first steps forward necessary to reach a degree of competitiveness.

The Rotation

The Birds end the first half with a rotation of Bedard, Rodrigo Lopez, Daniel Cabrera, Kris Benson and Russ Ortiz.

Ortiz should be dropped from the roster--simply designated for assignment.  He appears completely done as a major league pitcher and, frankly, given their options, the Orioles don't need him anyway.

Lopez should be traded, to the extent that he'll bring anything of value in return or, failing that, moved the bullpen.  Lopez doesn't want to pitch out of the pen--he's been very clear about that (I've always assumed that this is because he and his agent have concluded that his potential free agent value will sink if he's pitching out of the pen), but, basically, tough.  Lopez has demonstrated repeatedly over his big league career that he's a far more effective pitcher in relief than he is as a starter...not surprising, given that he really has only two pitches.  It's time--past time, really--to acknowledge the Peter Principle and send Rodrigo to the bullpen if he's to remain on this roster.

Cabrera stays, despite his erratic performance.

Benson stays, despite a pair of miserable outings heading into the break--he's pitched effectively throughout the first half and has generally performed at or slightly above expectations.  He's not a front of the rotation starter--he doesn't strike out nearly enough batters--but he's shown he can be effective at the back end.

Bedard, the clear bright spot, obviously stays.

As soon as it's humanly possible, Adam Loewen should be recalled to take Ortiz's spot.  Loewen had a solid, if unspectacular (three runs in 7.1 IP, but only one walk) outing for AAA Ottawa on Sunday.  In three starts since being farmed out Loewen, whose central problem was control, has walked three batters in 21.1 innings at Ottawa.

As soon as he gets his durability back, Hayden Penn, who made an abbreviated start for Bowie, should be recalled to take Lopez's spot.  Penn was to be recalled when Bruce Chen was booted out of the rotation six-odd weeks ago, but was sidelined because of a burst appendix.  He had pitched very well in five starts for Ottawa before being placed on the disabled list.

If all of these moves are made, the rotation would be Bedard, Cabrera, Benson, Loewen and Penn.  This very well could be next year's starting rotation, so why not take a flier and make it the rotation for the rest of this year?  At the very least, wouldn't it be enticing to see a young, homegrown pitcher with plus stuff--one with a real shot to be a part of a promising Orioles future--take the hill four days out of every five?

The Bullpen

At present, the bullpen consists of closer Chris Ray, long man Bruce Chen, lefty specialist Kurt Birkins, and right-handers Chris Britton, Sendy Rleal, Todd Williams and Latroy Hawkins.  

Ray stays put, of course.  So do Britton and Birkins who have, on balance, been superb  Rleal has been a lot spottier, but he's still young and inexperienced and shown enough at the minor league level to earn a shot to show that he can grow into a consistent bullpen contributor.  Chen's basically a waste of roster space; I see him as the clear odd-man out when Loewen and Penn move into the rotation and Lopez (for instance) takes over his role in the pen; he can be designated for assignment.  Williams and Hawkins are basically doing nothing more than taking up space too and should be shopped, in the event that someone wants either of them (based, hopefully, on a chimera of past success).  Hawkins was a strikeout pitcher once upon a time, but those days are gone--he's fanning fewer than four men per nine innings (3.41 to be exact) and opponents are hitting .308 against him.  If he can't be moved, the team can hold on to him until the off-season, swapping his role as setup man with Britton.  Williams has always been a marginal pitcher; I've always maintained that pitchers who can't strike out at least close to the ML average are going to have trouble being consistently effective.  Williams is fanning 4.15 batters per nine innings this year (3.73 in 2004; 4.48 in 2005).  It's all simply catching up with him; opponents are hitting .340 off him this year, with five home runs in 34.2 innings.  If he can't be moved, I'd simply release him and recall Eddy Rodriguez, who despite a less than brilliant earlier stint with the big club has been absolutely lights out with Ottawa all year (32 baserunners in 36.2 IP, no home runs while fanning 40).

The pen might look something like Ray, Britton, Birkins, Rleal, Rodriguez and Lopez plus perhaps Marino Salas, who's done a nice job closing for Bowie this season, or Brian Forystek who seems to have turned something of a corner after being returned to a relief role this season, depending on what is done with Hawkins and Williams.  Beau Hale is another possibility.

Regardless, this could be an overwhelmingly--again--young and homegrown bullpen depending on the moves made.  It's possible that the entire pitching staff could consist of 10 or 11 players who were originally signed by the Orioles.

The Starting Lineup

Presently the lineup consists of outfielders Jeff Conine, Corey Patterson and Nick Markakis.  The infield is 1B Kevin Millar, 2B Brian Roberts, SS Miguel Tejada and 3B Melvin Mora.  The catcher is Ramon Hernandez.  The DH is Javy Lopez.  Conine, Millar and Lopez aren't peas in a pod, but they're remarkably similar in a number of ways.  They're all aging, right-handed hitters with limited defensive skills.  They're all having mediocre seasons at the plate.  None are--or should be--in the club's future plans.  All should be shopped around.

Jay Gibbons is presumably a few weeks away from being activated from the disabled list.  In his absence--he had been starting in right field, you will recall--Nick Markakis has slowly improved as a hitter and done a nice job of stabilizing the RF defense.  Gibbons is a disaster in the outfield.  When activated, if Lopez is dealt, Gibbons will likely become the full-time DH.  If Millar is also moved, Gibbons could be given another shot at first base.  Either way, he will play and, as one of the few left-handed power threats on the team, he certainly should play somewhere.

If all three of the Lopez/Conine/Millar troika are moved, Gibbons would slide into one of the openings, but the other two would have to be filled by players presumably received in return.  In all likelihood, not all of these players will be traded.  If not, they should be let go in the off-season with the intention of filling their places with hopefully younger and demonstrably more skilled defensive players.

Trading Miguel Tejada appears off the table based on the recent remarks of club front office personnel, so let's presume for the moment that Roberts, Tejada, Mora, Hernandez, Patterson and Markakis stay put and Gibbons sucks up one of the empty spaces (presumably DH).  That leaves holes to fill at left field and first base (what else is new?), something that will have to be done, aggressively, in the off-season if not sooner.

Brandon Fahey has, in my view, shown more than enough to be able to fill in as a kind of "super sub," having demonstrated adequate defensive skills throughout the infield and in left as well.  He's shown himself to be a decent handler of the bat, but serious questions persist as to whether he has the offensive ability to hold down a full-time big league job.  I tend to doubt it, but he's not without bench value.  He's young, he's versatile and he's inexpensive.  The rest of the bench is presently filled with the likes of Ed Rogers, Howie Clark and Luis Terrero, who represent utterly replaceable parts and are not likely to be in the club's future plans.  The team will need to acquire a backup catcher, a decent fourth outfielder (one that can play center field and hit left-handed pitching would be a big plus) and perhaps another player who can play the infield; if they feel that Fahey's enough of an infield backup, it might make sense to find someone who can spot Gibbons as a DH against tough left-handed pitching.

While the team has sold its organizational sole in an attempt to build some depth of pitching--not without a degree of success, I might add--the position player end of things is where dysfunction reigns.  The current position player roster is short on patience (no player on the current roster projects to draw as many as 70 walks this season and the club as a whole ranks 12th in the AL in bases on balls); the team's power is spotty (after spending most of the first two months of the season in the top three in the league in home runs, the Orioles presently rank 10th in the league in that category and are 10th in slugging percentage); there is no truly feared batter on the team--someone other clubs are loathe to pitch to.  The offense is essentially built around complementary offensive players (Tejada, Mora, Gibbons, etc.), who have no one to complement.

While the pitching, despite its present near-bottom-of-the-league status has a high ceiling and there's reason to expect improvement given the reliance on youth, the same cannot be said of the team's position players, most of whom are well-established veterans in their 30s; Markakis, Roberts and Patterson are the only current starters who will be less than 30 years old next season (and Roberts will be 29).  

It is here that the Orioles have the fewest options available.  There's little if any help from within coming over the next year or two so if the team is to improve, they will have to be active in the trade and free agent markets.  The club will have to avoid signing the likes of Conine and Millar--aging players who don't hit enough to merit playing the spots they're placed in on the field and, in any case, can't really field those positions anyway.  With the clear reliance on young pitching coming--and to a large extent, already present--the Orioles will do well to place an emphasis on fundamentally sound players who can at least provide above average defense--something palpably lacking on the 2006 squad.

None of this projects to a 95-win season in 2007, but with the right moves and a break or two, perhaps the long consecutive losing seasons streak can come to a merciful end and we, as fans, will have something to be legitimately optimistic about for the first time in years.

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