Entering the 2004 season, the most intriguing aspect of the Orioles' roster was the four young, extremely inexperienced pitchers that made up 80% of the club's starting rotation.  More than a month into the campaign the quartet remains the most intriguing--and capricious--aspect of the team.  All have shown hints of the form responsible for their inclusion in the rotation in the first place; none have shown the consistency necessary to retain the spot indefinitely.  All are likely to continue to be given a shot given the intrigue...and the lack of obvious, viable alternatives.

What all four of the referenced pitchers--Kurt Ainsworth, Matt Riley, Erik Bedard and Eric DuBose--have demonstrated is a problem throwing strikes on a regular basis and a concomitant difficulty keeping their pitch counts down.  Ainsworth is throwing 17.9 pitches per inning, Riley's at 19.7, Bedard 22.8 and DuBose 16.6.  None of these numbers is tenable, though DuBose is probably nearest sustainability at this point.  But, obviously, these kinds of pitch per inning averages make even six inning starts a stretch (in Bedard's case, five innings would be a stretch).  Clearly these numbers must improve.

The most important single thing that the quartet can do to deal with the pitch count problem is cut down on the number of walks issued.  All four are averaging better than five walks per nine innings; three are averaging better than six walks per nine innings.  There is no way, of course, that a starting pitcher can be consistently effective walking batters at this rate.

One explanation for the aforementioned control problems is the very youth and lack of experience that make these pitchers so enigmatic, and enticing, in the first place.

In the table below we see some key numbers compiled by the Orioles' young starters thus far this season:

What, if anything, can we glean from the experience of the predecessors to these young pitchers, with comparable profiles at similar ages?

Ainsworth, Riley and Bedard are all 24 or 25 years old this year.  DuBose is considerably older--he's 28 this season.  But the younger three do have some, at least superficially, comparable individuals in relatively recent major league history.  Since the 1969 expansion, the following pitchers walked at least five batters per nine innings at age 24 or 25 (minimum 140 innings in a season):

A glance at the above list might well give one reason to be optimistic.  There's a Hall of Famer (Ryan) on that list; there's another pitcher who's almost a certain future Hall of Famer (Johnson); and a third who might well have been a candidate had he not suffered a stroke at a young age (Richard).  There are several other players who had solid careers (Odom, Kile, Norris), though two were cut short by injury and premature death and two are still pitching, in the midst of apparently solid careers (Ortiz and Clement).  Of the others, Witt (the only pitcher to appear at ages 24 and 25) was a disappointment (though he hung around for quite some time), Saunders broke his arm and Birtsas, McMurtry and Bowen never really developed (save McMurtry's ostensibly impressive rookie year).  Still, eight of the 13 players on this list had decent, or better, careers.  And the three are all, at least to this point, well within the SO/9IP range to make a comparison within reason for most of the above pitchers.  McMurtry could arguably be discounted because he didn't strike out nearly enough batters to make him a viable comparator for Ainsworth, Bedard and Riley.

Regardless, it's worth noting several caveats:  

First, teams thought enough of these players to allow them to compile at least 140 innings despite the obvious control problems.  There is no guarantee, as yet, that this will be the case for any of the Orioles.  If they do reach 140+, however, it will be a good sign.

Second, the legitimate star pitchers on this list were among the hardest throwers ever to play the game (Ryan, Richard, Johnson).  None of the Orioles we're talking about have that kind of velocity, making the comparison dubious at best.  

Third, of the three Orioles in question at the moment, two are left-handers (Bedard and Riley).  There are only three lefties on the above list--Johnson, who's been all but discounted as a comparator, Saunders (who got hurt early) and Birtsas, who never amounted to much.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, very few of these pitchers were in their rookie seasons at this age.  For instance, Norris had 250 innings, and parts of four big league seasons, under his belt in 1979.  Ryan had parts of four seasons and roughly 350 big league innings to his credit in 1971.  Odom was an established big leaguer--with parts of six seasons and nearly 700 major league innings as part of his resume'.   And so on.  The best comparisons are Birtsas, Ortiz and Clement, who were both rookies at age 24.

Birtsas only started five games after his rookie season, so there's not much to compare.

Ortiz has continued to struggle with his control, though not to the extent that he did in 1999.  His career BB/9IP mark:  4.51 in six seasons.  He was under four in 2001 and 2002, but was back up to 4.3 last season.

Clement has lowered his BB/9IP mark each season since 2000, and settled in near the 3.5 area last year.

Overall, it would seem that the majority of pitchers good enough to be given the opportunity to throw 140 or more innings at age 24-25 despite extremely high walk rates are good enough, in fact, to improve their control, even if they aren't completely able to overcome the walk bugaboo. 

Two pitchers doesn't make for much of a sample, but it's noteworthy how rare this described phenomenon is.  If the three Orioles (excluding DuBose, because of his age) manage to reach 140 innings and don't lower their BB/9IP rates below five, they will be only the 14th, 15th and 16th 24-25-year-old pitchers in the last 35 years to make the list...and it would be the first time that there would be more than one such case on the same team.

It's premature to go any further with this, but it will be interesting to take stock of the situation again at season's end when comparisons may be more valid.  

Until then, consider this food for thought.

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