The Stats That Matter Most (2006 final)
Many moons ago, trendsetting sabermetrician Bill James demonstrated a relationship between runs scored, runs allowed and wins which, because of the necessity of squaring the elements, he dubbed the Pythagorean Theorem (of baseball). The formula is that the square of runs scored divided by the sum of the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed equals a team's expected winning percentage. From there, you simply multiply the winning percentage and games played and you have a projected win total. The measure works remarkably well, and, obviously, the more games a team plays, the better the relationship ordinarily is.
Here are the final numbers for 2006:
| AMERICAN LEAGUE | |||||||||||
| Team | R | OR | R DIFF | G | R/G | OR/G | DIFF/G | PW% | EXP W | ACT W | W DIFF |
| Baltimore Orioles | 768 | 899 | -131 | 162 | 4.74 | 5.55 | -0.81 | .422 | 68 | 70 | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox | 820 | 825 | -5 | 162 | 5.06 | 5.09 | -0.03 | .497 | 81 | 86 | 5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 868 | 794 | 74 | 162 | 5.36 | 4.90 | 0.46 | .544 | 88 | 90 | 2 |
| Cleveland Indians | 870 | 782 | 88 | 162 | 5.37 | 4.83 | 0.54 | .553 | 90 | 78 | -12 |
| Detroit Tigers | 822 | 675 | 147 | 162 | 5.07 | 4.17 | 0.91 | .597 | 97 | 95 | -2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 757 | 971 | -214 | 162 | 4.67 | 5.99 | -1.32 | .378 | 61 | 62 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 766 | 732 | 34 | 162 | 4.73 | 4.52 | 0.21 | .523 | 85 | 89 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 801 | 683 | 118 | 162 | 4.94 | 4.22 | 0.73 | .579 | 94 | 96 | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 930 | 767 | 163 | 162 | 5.74 | 4.73 | 1.01 | .595 | 96 | 97 | 1 |
| Oakland Athletics | 771 | 727 | 44 | 162 | 4.76 | 4.49 | 0.27 | .529 | 86 | 93 | 7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 756 | 792 | -36 | 162 | 4.67 | 4.89 | -0.22 | .477 | 77 | 78 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 689 | 856 | -167 | 162 | 4.25 | 5.28 | -1.03 | .393 | 64 | 61 | -3 |
| Texas Rangers | 835 | 784 | 51 | 162 | 5.15 | 4.84 | 0.31 | .531 | 86 | 80 | -6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 809 | 754 | 55 | 162 | 4.99 | 4.65 | 0.34 | .535 | 87 | 87 | 0 |
| 11262 | 11041 | 221 | 1134 | 4.97 | 4.87 | ||||||
| NATIONAL LEAGUE | |||||||||||
| Team | R | OR | R DIFF | G | R/G | OR/G | DIFF/G | PW% | EXP W | ACT W | W DIFF |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 773 | 788 | -15 | 162 | 4.77 | 4.86 | -0.09 | .490 | 79 | 76 | -3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 849 | 805 | 44 | 162 | 5.24 | 4.97 | 0.27 | .527 | 85 | 79 | -6 |
| Chicago Cubs | 716 | 834 | -118 | 162 | 4.42 | 5.15 | -0.73 | .424 | 69 | 66 | -3 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 749 | 801 | -52 | 162 | 4.62 | 4.94 | -0.32 | .466 | 76 | 80 | 4 |
| Colorado Rockies | 813 | 812 | 1 | 162 | 5.02 | 5.01 | 0.01 | .501 | 81 | 76 | -5 |
| Florida Marlins | 758 | 772 | -14 | 162 | 4.68 | 4.77 | -0.09 | .491 | 80 | 78 | -2 |
| Houston Astros | 735 | 719 | 16 | 162 | 4.54 | 4.44 | 0.10 | .511 | 83 | 82 | -1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 820 | 751 | 69 | 162 | 5.06 | 4.64 | 0.43 | .544 | 88 | 88 | 0 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 730 | 833 | -103 | 162 | 4.51 | 5.14 | -0.64 | .434 | 70 | 75 | 5 |
| New York Mets | 834 | 731 | 103 | 162 | 5.15 | 4.51 | 0.64 | .566 | 92 | 97 | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 865 | 812 | 53 | 162 | 5.34 | 5.01 | 0.33 | .532 | 86 | 85 | -1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 691 | 797 | -106 | 162 | 4.27 | 4.92 | -0.65 | .429 | 70 | 67 | -3 |
| San Diego Padres | 731 | 679 | 52 | 162 | 4.51 | 4.19 | 0.32 | .537 | 87 | 88 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 746 | 790 | -44 | 161 | 4.63 | 4.91 | -0.27 | .471 | 76 | 76 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 781 | 762 | 19 | 161 | 4.85 | 4.73 | 0.12 | .512 | 82 | 83 | 1 |
| Washington Nationals | 746 | 872 | -126 | 162 | 4.60 | 5.38 | -0.78 | .423 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
| 12337 | 12558 | -221 | 1295 | 4.76 | 4.85 |
Orioles Comments: The Orioles finished 2006 ranked 12th in RDIFF--only Tampa Bay and Kansas City were worse--as they had most of the season. They finished with a season incremental worst -.81 DIFF/G. That mark was -.58 on June 5, -.72 on July 10 and -.77 on August 10.
The Orioles finished 10th in the AL in R/G, but were only 13 runs for the entire season from finishing 13th; by comparison they were 24 runs from finishing eighth. The R/G mark itself fell in each STMM installment: it was 5.27 on May 6 and 5.18 on June 5. It was 4.84 on July 10, 4.79 on August 10 and ended at 4.74. Delving a bit into the specifics, the Orioles ranked seventh in batting average, eighth in on base percentage, tied for 10th in walks, ranked 11th in the AL in home runs, and tied for 10th in slugging percentage. The Orioles led the league in hit batsmen. In effect, the Orioles were mediocre or worse in every significant offensive category.
Despite being in the bottom half of the league in baserunners, the Orioles were fourth in the league in men left on base and fifth in double play grounders.
The Orioles finished 13th in the league in OR/G at 5.55, a mark that remained virtually unchanged since the All-Star break (it was 5.57 at the break and on August 10).
The Orioles completed the season a more or less irrelevant +2 in terms of WDIFF. In other words, the team has compiled a W-L record essentially in line with that projected by the Pythagorean Theorem.
American League comments: The Cleveland Indians finished a historic -12 in WDIFF. Only nine other clubs in modern baseball history have had a WDIFF of -12 or worse--the 1967 Baltimore Orioles (-12), the 1984 Pittsburgh Pirates (-13), the 1986 Pirates (-13) the 1904 Cleveland Indians (-13), the 1907 Cincinnati Reds (-13), 1993 New York Mets (-14), the 1911 Pirates (-14), the 1906 Indians (-14) and the 1905 Chicago Cubs (-16). If they're smart, the Indians will resist the temptation to shake things up too much...even though they did finish with only the third best run differential in their division. The AL Central had four of the top five run differential marks in the league.
If the New York Yankees are smart, they won't mess things up too much either. The Yankees led the league in runs, ultimately by a fairly wide margin (more than a third of a run per game over second place Cleveland--yes, the Tribe finished second in the AL in R/G). The changes the Yankees should--and presumably will--make fall in the pitching department. New York finished the season a relatively mediocre sixth in the league in OR/G, but still led the circuit in RDIFF.
The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, certainly should contemplate significant changes. The Red Sox finished the season by being outscored by five runs and with a +5 WDIFF. Basically, Boston was lucky to finish anywhere near second place; the club's run differential ranked 10th in the league. Boston finished sixth in R/G and 11th in OR/G. The Red Sox simply weren't a very good team in 2006. Toronto was only one game better in the standings but, statistically, appeared to be significantly stronger.
The Texas Rangers (-6 WDIFF) didn't underachieve as much as Cleveland, but certainly appeared to be much better than their record. Texas actually had the best RDIFF in the West (marginally better than Oakland and Los Angeles) and the Rangers allowed fewer runs than the league average for the first time in (seemingly) eons.
National League comments: As I mentioned repeatedly through the year, the National League was awfully mediocre in 2006.
The New York Mets were, by far, the best team in the National League by any reasonable indicator. They were the only team to outscore its opponents by more than 70 runs (+103). The Mets showed good balance in ranking third in the NL in both R/G and OR/G. Since Shea Stadium normally plays as a pitcher's park, the R/G mark is particularly impressive. Still, the Mets appeared to be the "luckiest" team in the circuit, posting a league-co-best +5 WDIFF. The other +5 club was the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished well below .500 (and projected to lose 92 games); the Brewers posted the fourth worst RDIFF in the NL.
On the other side of the coin, the Atlanta Braves (-6) and Colorado Rockies (-5) appeared to be the "unluckiest" teams in the NL.
The Philadelphia Phillies finished with the third best RDIFF in the league (one run better than the fourth place Padres) but missed the postseason. The Phillies did it with offense--best in the NL, and nearly 100 more runs scored than the Orioles), but finished dead last in the league in OR/G. Think Citizens Bank is a hitter's park?
In the Central, the St. Louis Cardinals finished just +19 in RDIFF and still had the best mark in the division (slightly ahead of Houston). The division, incredibly, managed to have three teams finish with RDIFFs of -100 or worse (the Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs), but still managed to avoid hosting the team posting the NL's worst RDIFF. That ignominy went to the Washington Nationals of the Eastern division.
Three of the five clubs in the West managed to finish with positive RDIFFs, though just barely. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres were well above break even, but the Rockies were just +1. The Rockies, by the way, finished tied for 12th in OR/G, and fifth in R/G as offense crept steadily upward over the final couple of months at Coors Field.