The Stats That Matter Most (Season Final)

Many moons ago, trendsetting sabermetrician Bill James demonstrated a relationship between runs scored, runs allowed and wins which, because of the necessity of squaring the elements, he dubbed the Pythagorean Theorem (of baseball).  The formula is that the square of runs scored divided by the sum of the square of runs scored and the square of runs allowed equals a team's expected winning percentage.  From there, you simply multiply the winning percentage and games played and you have a projected win total.  The measure works remarkably well, and, obviously, the more games a team plays, the better the relationship ordinarily is.

The last report was complete through games of August 21.  Here are the season's final numbers:

With the season over, we're going to do the analysis a bit differently than in the past--we'll take a look at each team individually, beginning of course with the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles  Well, it ended up pretty ugly.  The Orioles finished 10th in the league in runs allowed and 13th in the league in runs scored.  The only American League team that scored fewer runs than the Orioles was the Devil Rays and I'm pretty confident that if the season was 15-20 games longer than it really is, the Orioles would have been dead last.  (More on that in the Devil Rays comment.)  The Orioles finished -3 in WDIFF, so they should have lost 95-odd games rather than 98.  That's not exactly something to hang your hat on.  The Orioles were one of baseball's lousiest teams in 2001--only three teams had a worse run differential and the Expos finished tied with the Orioles for 26th place among the 30 big league teams at -142...but we all knew that, and we all expected it, so no one should be surprised.

Now, the rest of the AL East.

New York Yankees  This wasn't a vintage Yankees season, but given the competition they clearly were the best team in the division this season.  The Yankees were fine in the pitching/defense end of the equation, finishing a strong third in the league in runs allowed, and managed a fifth place finish in runs scored.  While the Yankees were third in the league in RDIFF, they pale in comparison with the Mariners and A's who simply dominated the league.  Additionally, the Yankees +5 mark in WDIFF made them the "luckiest" team (along with Seattle) in the league.  The Yankees projected to a 90-win season, which still would easily have been enough to win the division.

Boston Red Sox  After underachieving by a significant margin, the Red Sox finished pretty much right where they belonged at season's end--slightly over .500.  As is well known, the BoSox basically imploded as the season moved along.  In the 38 games after August 21, the Red Sox were outscored by 40 runs.  In their final 71 games, the Red Sox were outscored by 61 runs.  This was a really bad team over the second half of this season and only part of that can be attributed to the loss of Pedro Martinez.  Despite a below average mark of 4.8 runs scored, Boston still finished sixth in the league in runs scored.  The club was fourth in runs allowed.

Toronto Blue Jays  The enigmatic Jays underachieved by a couple of games.  The club had all kinds of pitching problems last year; this year Toronto barely finished behind Boston in fifth place in the league.  But the Jays, who were a prolific offensive club in 2000 finished a poor ninth in runs scored.  Toronto needs to find a way to improve one facet of the game without regressing on the other.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays  Okay, so the Devil Rays had a miserable year and finished with baseball's worst run differential.  The team was also +3 in WDIFF, so they should have finished with 103 losses rather than 100.  The Rays were worst in the league in runs per game and 13 out of 14 teams in runs allowed.  Pretty awful, huh?  Nothing to look forward to...well, not so fast.  As bad as the Rays' final numbers were, let's remember where they were earlier in the season.  125 games into the season Tampa was -233 in run differential.  That means that over the final 37 games of the season, the team was +18 RDIFF.  That means that the Rays actually played pretty well over the season's final quarter or so, a fact that ought to give the team's fans, assuming there are any left, some semblance of hope.

The AL Central

Cleveland Indians  One of these days someone else in this division is going to develop a pretty good team and the Tribe is going to stop these nearly annual postseason appearances.  Cleveland seems to get a little bit worse every season, but with no competition (what with the White Sox's injury woes and stingy owner) they still win the division...like this year.  The Indians can still hit (second in the league in runs), but they still can't pitch (ninth in the league in runs allowed); some things never change.  The Tribe also was +3 in WDIFF, projecting to an 88-win season...which still would have been enough to win the division comfortably.

Minnesota Twins  The Twins played over their heads--and above reasonable Pythagorean projections--most of the season before coming most of the way back down to earth by year's end.  Minnesota finished +3 in WDIFF and still won only 85 games.  While the Twins did improve offensively (they've been at or very near the bottom of the league in runs for the better part of the decade), the team finished a mediocre eighth in the league in runs this year.  The team's pitching/defense also improved, but still only ranked 7th in the league.  8th and 7th doesn't add up to a division title.

Chicago White Sox  Despite a plethora of season-ending injuries to key players this year, the White Sox still managed to eke out a season in the black--over .500, if just barely.  The team's rankings were indicative of a .500 season--sixth in runs, eighth in runs allowed.  The team's +2 WDIFF was commensurate with that of the two teams that finished above the White Sox in the divisional standings.

Kansas City Royals  The Royals finished fourth but represented a huge drop off from the third place ChiSox.  For what seems like the millionth consecutive season, the Royals found themselves buried far below the .500 mark.  Kansas City was -3 in WDIFF, but that merely represented the difference between 94 and 97 losses.  10th in runs, 11th in runs allowed the Royals have ample room for improvement in all facets of the game in the quest for a return to respectability.

Detroit Tigers  As lousy as Kansas City was, Detroit was worse.  For what seems like the millionth consecutive season (does this sound familiar) the Tigers finished far below the .500 mark.  Of all AL teams, only Tampa Bay finished with a worse run differential than Detroit.  Comerica Park played as a pitcher's park in 2000...if that trend continued in 2001 the Tigers' 11th ranking in runs isn't as bad as it seems.  On the other hand, the club's 13th ranking in runs allowed (just .07 per game worse than the Rays), if the park factors hold up, is awful, and will probably turn out to be a park-adjusted league-worst mark.  As is the case with the Royals, the Tigers have plenty of room for improvement every place they look.

The AL West

Seattle Mariners  When you outscore your opponents by 300 runs, you've had a phenomenal year.  The Mariners finished +5 in WDIFF and still projected to a 111-win season.  Not surprisingly, Seattle ranked first in runs and first in runs allowed...you can't do any better than that.  As a result, the Mariners led all of baseball in wins and, because of a bit of luck, tied the all-time major league record for wins in a season.  Statistically, the Mariners' 2001 season was virtually identical to the Yankees' 1998, also one of the greatest single seasons of all time.

Oakland Athletics  In most seasons, a run differential of 239 runs leads the league...usually both leagues, actually.  In this season, however, it wasn't even good enough to win a division, or even come close, for that matter.  The A's finished 14 games behind the Mariners in the AL West despite a truly outstanding year.  Oakland projected to a 106-win mark, but was -4 in WDIFF.  The A's finished fourth in runs (just behind second place Cleveland and third place Texas) second in runs allowed, behind only Seattle.  Leave out the first 28-odd games of the season and Oakland was essentially the same team as Seattle--phenomenal.  It's truly remarkable that these two teams reside in the same division, particularly with the unbalanced schedule.

Anaheim Angels  The Angels were one-dimensional, and as a result, they finished marginally below the the .500 mark.  The Angels were fourth in runs allowed, but a ranking of 12th--barely above the Orioles--in runs scored doomed them to irrelevance, particularly in a division with the Mariners and A's.  The Angels should have won 77 and settled for 75, but it really didn't make much difference in the end.

Texas Rangers  What happens when you take a good offensive team and add a tremendous offensive shortstop?  You score a lot of runs.  The Rangers ranked third in runs (kind of interesting that three of the four most prolific offensive teams in the AL all played in the same division).  What happens when you take a horrific pitching staff and do nothing to improve it?  You give up a lot of runs.  The Rangers were last in the American League...heck, last in all of baseball...in runs allowed.  By a big, fat margin.  Texas surrendered 5.98 runs per game--a half a run more than the 13th place Devil Rays, a huge margin from 13 to 14.  The worst mark in the NL was held, naturally, by the Colorado Rockies, denizens of the pitcher's graveyard also known as Coors Field.  They allowed 5.59 runs, almost 2/5 of a run better than Texas, which did not play in Coors Field.  It's pretty obvious where the Rangers need to improve.

The NL East

Atlanta Braves  The Braves had, for them, a pretty crummy year but were, at least statistically, clearly the best team in the division.  The Braves outscored their opponents by 86 runs, the third best mark in the league and far better than the next best team in the East (Philadelphia).  As usual, the Braves did it with pitching, with a league-best runs allowed mark of 3.97 per game.  The problem was that Atlanta couldn't even manage an average offense.  The Braves scored just 4.5 runs per game, the 13th best mark in the league.  Despite a -3 mark in WDIFF, the Braves still had enough to eke out their 10th straight division crown.

Philadelphia Phillies  This was an average team.  Given how bad the Phils have been since they went to the World Series in 1993 that's something of a step forward, but this was not a team that had any business making the postseason.  Philadelphia ranked ninth in runs and seventh in runs allowed and, even with the benefit of a +2 mark in WDIFF, like the Twins, rankings like that just don't add up to a postseason seed.

Florida Marlins  The Marlins were underachieving all year and ended up five games below where they belonged--the .500 mark.  The Marlins found themselves near the middle of the league in both categories--tied for seventh (with the Dodgers) in runs allowed, and 10th in runs scored, barely behind ninth place Philadelphia.  The Marlins -5 WDIFF mark can be explained pretty much entirely by the club's 20-29 record in one-run games.  The NL East is a weak division right now and it wouldn't take very much for the Marlins to become serious contenders for the division title next year, though cost-cutting moves might foreclose such a possibility.

New York Mets  The Mets were a lousy club this year, in run differential terms essentially as bad as the Rangers.  Still, the Mets were in contention into the season's final week before contracting to 82 wins, six behind Atlanta.  The Pythagorean Theorem projected the team as a 73-win outfit, meaning that the Mets finished +9 in WDIFF, a mark sufficiently large to warrant explanation.  At least part of the reason for the Mets' overachieving centers around the team's 30-20 mark in one-run games.  The 10-game over .500 mark in one-run contests was the widest in the league and the .600 winning percentage in such games stands in stark contrast with the .464 the Mets compiled in games decided by at least two runs.  Had the Mets gone 23-27 in one-run games--also a .464 winning percentage--they would have been just +2 in WDIFF, a completely unremarkable measure.

Montreal Expos  The Expos, in probably their final season in Montreal, were lousy again this past season, ranking 14th in runs and 13th in runs allowed and, predictably, 15th in run differential in the National League.  The Expos were +2 in WDIFF, but the distinction was between winning 66 games and 68.  Given that the Expos have actually spent some cash the last couple of years--not necessarily very smartly--their level of play had to be a major disppointment.

The NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals  The Cardinals lost the division title to the Astros as a result of a tiebreaker, but they shouldn't have.  They definitely performed better than any other Central club.  Only Arizona had a better run differential than St. Louis among NL clubs.  The Cards were one of the best balanced clubs in the league, finishing third in runs allowed and fourth in runs scored in the 16-team league.  It was WDIFF that did the Cardinals in:  they finished -2 while the Astros were +4.

Houston Astros Despite a comparatively (to the Cardinals) run differential, the Astros won the Central on the basis of the aforementioned WDIFF.  Last year, Enron Field was baseball's second best hitters park.  It's too soon for 2001's park factors, but if they're anything like 2001's, Houston's pitching staff--which ranked 10th in raw statistical terms--was one of the better units in the league.  On the other hand, the much-celebrated Astros offense, if the park factors hold, which ranks second in runs scored, was probably a lot closer to the park-adjusted league average than one might think.

Chicago Cubs  The Cubs used a few late-season blowouts to raise their run differential from around +40 into the 70s.  The Cubs lived with their pitching (the team was fourth in the league in runs allowed), but died with their bats (seventh in runs scored).  The team is talking about keeping the same club virtually intact for the 2002 season, but that would be a big mistake.

Milwaukee Brewers  There were three really rotten clubs in the NL Central this year and the best of the worst was represented by the Brewers.  While crummy, Milwaukee was nowhere near as bad as its record would indicate, finishing with a -6 WDIFF mark.  The Brewers finished -6 because they were a league-worst 13-25 in one-run games, a truly dreadful mark.  Not that the Brewers performed well or anything, finishing a symmetrical 11th in runs and 11th in runs allowed.  If Milwaukee is to arrest a long sequence of sub-.500 finishes they'll have to improve on both sides of the ball.

Cincinnati Reds  The Reds stank this year, finishing an incomprehensible 27-54 at home.  Overall, the club was -3 in WDIFF, which meant that they should have gone 69-93.  Oh boy.  While the offense was merely mediocre (ranking ninth in the the league), the pitching/defense was really bad (14th in the league in runs allowed).  To return to contention, however, the Reds will need to completely rebuild the pitching staff--again--and find a way to score some more runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates  This is not how to inaugurate a new ballpark.  The Pirates were the worst team in the NL and virtually the worst team in all of baseball in 2001, finishing -201 runs in differential.  The only team in the league that allowed more runs than the Bucs was the Rockies, and that club had Coors Field as an excuse.  (Should be interesting to see the PNC park factors.)  No team in either league scored fewer runs than Pittsburgh (so if the park explains the dreadful pitching, what's the excuse for the even worse than it would appear offense...or vice versa?).  The Pirates have one heck of a job to do to turn this situation around any time soon.

The NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks  The D-backs spec out as the best team in the NL, run differential-wise.  Like St. Louis, Arizona was a well-balanced club, finishing second in the league in runs allowed and third in runs scored and also managed to overcome a -4 WDIFF mark to capture the West crown.  BankOne has played as a hitter's park to date, which should serve as further testimony to the strength of the club's pitching/defense.

San Francisco Giants  The Giants, behind Barry Bonds' remarkable season, battled a superior Arizona team to the end but came up short in their quest for a postseason spot.  The Giants were fifth in runs, but only ninth in runs allowed, and that was their undoing.  Even a +4, coupled with Arizona's -4, mark in WDIFF wasn't enough to put San Francisco over the top.

Colorado Rockies  The thing that stands out about the Rockies is that they finished -10 in WDIFF.  That's a ton but, like some of the other NL outliers, the team's one-run record explains part of that discrepancy.  Colorado finished 18-28 in one-run contests, and 55-61 in all other games.  If they're record in games decided by two runs were applied to their 46 one run games, the WDIFF mark drops to -6...which is still a lot.  I can only assume that the Rockies had a number of games this year--most if not all of them at Coors--where they absolutely flogged their opponents, thereby driving up their RDIFF in a way that a crazy place like Coors Field can.  I can't prove this, however, and I'm frankly too lazy to go through their entire game log in an attempt to prove it.  Others <g> are welcome to try.

Los Angeles Dodgers  It's pretty amazing that the Rockies had a better run differential than the Dodgers yet finished thirteen full games behind them in the real world standings.  Dodger Stadium has always been a strong pitcher's park and that makes the club's tied-for-seventh runs allowed mark really unimpressive.  Of course, it does make the team's eighth ranking in runs scored somewhat more impressive, but the end conclusion has to be that the Dodgers were an awfully mediocre team in 2001 and that they need to get a lot better, particularly in the pitching department, if they expect to be a major factor next year.

San Diego Padres  The Padres showed a lot more offensive spunk (fifth in runs scored) this season than most people expected, but they were every bit as lousy in pitching/defense (tied for 12th) as everyone expected and thus finished a bit below .500...which still had to be regarded as a generally successful season.  San Diego was the only NL club to finish dead on its projected win total (Detroit was the only AL club to accomplish the feat).

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