Lately, I've read a number of articles--including several in the mainstream press--that imply (or explicitly state) that the 2004 season has been a complete failure for the Orioles (focusing on the big league club).  I think that assessment is significantly overblown.

This is not to say that I think that this has been a great season for the Orioles; it certainly hasn't been.  But to say that it's been a complete flop has to be a function of massively overrating this club in the first place, failure to understand what this season was about or being infested with such a sense of pessimism (perhaps understandable given the performance of this team over the past six years) as to be unable to recognize anything positive.

What's gone well?  Despite what at one time appeared to be a complete failure of the team's strategy to go with four young, inexperienced pitchers out of the gate, in a sense, the Orioles appear to have seen a clear measure of success in this area.  

Erik Bedard is looking like the real deal, becoming increasingly solid as the season wears on.  He's now striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings.  He's allowed only six home runs in better than 80 innings.  The walk rate has been slowly declining most of the year (14 in his last 36.1 IP vs. 34 strikeouts).  (Keep in mind how little experience Bedard had above A-ball coming into this season--less than 70 innings.)  Importantly, Bedard is solidifying his performance as he goes through the league a second time.

At the same time, Daniel Cabrera (who hadn't thrown a single pitch above A-ball until this year) has come out of nowhere to have an undeniably effective season.  While I was--and some extent remain--concerned about Cabrera's peripheral numbers (his lack of strikeouts in particular), as he begins to go through the league for the second time Cabrera's peripherals are  beginning to look more sustainable.  In his last 41.2 innings, Cabrera has fanned 28 batters, or slightly better than six per inning.  Cabrera fanned roughly a man an inning in the minor leagues, so after a slow start in that department at the major league level, he's moving up.  Of course, Cabrera's walked about 4.5 men per nine innings in his last 41.2 IP, but given his walk rate (better than six per nine innings entering this season) at the minor league level, that represents improved command as well.  The right-hander has allowed only six home runs in nearly 90 big league innings in 2004.

To Bedard and Cabrera--both of whose big league success has been truly astounding when they're lack of high end minor league experience is considered, add the improving John Maine (who appears to have finally solved AAA) and a not-as-bad-as-most-of-his numbers-would-suggest Sidney Ponson (yes, he's overpaid, even if he is getting reasonably anticipated results, but he's not pitching as bad as his record and ERA would indicate) and suddenly you have the makings of a pretty decent looking (to say nothing of young) starting rotation.  And I wouldn't give up on Matt Riley (who has struck out better than a man an inning this year) yet either.

And the bullpen?  Well, B.J. Ryan has demonstrated that he's turned the corner completely and has been one of the top relievers in baseball.  John Parrish has been more than serviceable in middle relief.  Eddie Rodriguez has pitched effectively since being recalled.  Rodrigo Lopez has performed well in his swing man role, but was basically lights out as a reliever.  The Orioles appear to have the building blocks of a pretty decent bullpen.

What about the position players?  Well, Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez, the biggest of the position player free agent signings this off-season, have delivered exactly as should have been expected.  Melvin Mora, when in the lineup, has produced offensively in a manner that would seem to imply that last year's level of productivity may not have been a fluke.  Rafael Palmeiro has been mildly disappointing, but he's still drawing his walks and there's a sense that if he wasn't spending every game in the field that he'd be more productive at the plate.  Larry Bigbie hasn't hit a lick against lefties but has been pretty effective (815 OPS) against right-handed pitching.  David Newhan has hit the proverbial crap out of the ball since being picked up off the scrap heap.

Of course, not all has gone swimmingly.  Mike DeJean was a disaster before being dealt earlier this week to the Mets.  Jason Grimsley has been pitiful since being acquired--inexplicably--for Denny Bautista in June.  Jorge Julio has, at best, been a disappointment.  Luis Matos has demonstrated pretty conclusively that he doesn't have anything approaching a major league bat.  Brian Roberts got off to a fast start but has regressed to predictable mediocrity.  Jerry Hairston has only been marginally better, and has spent most of his time lately in right field, a position he simply doesn't have the bat to play, even if he had the glove (which he doesn't).  Jay Gibbons has been hurt most of the time, and was just awful even when he wasn't.  The pitching staff has, as a group, walked far too many batters.  The baserunning has been atrocious.  The defense, even when it hasn't had three players out of position as it did today, has been as bad as any team in the American League.  The club has shown an almost "self-fulfilling prophecy" kind of inability to hit left-handed pitching.

There's no question that this club has issues.  (I haven't even addressed the continued moribund state of the minor league "talent" base.)  But I see some questions that have been answered this year--some positively, some negatively, but I think things are a lot clearer, with regard to the relatively near future, than has been the case with this franchise in at least four years.  Despite some nonsense expressed about this club "contending" this season (when was the last time you recall a team fielding a starting rotation consisting of four inexperienced pitchers?), 2004 was supposed to be about answering questions--who was ready, who wasn't--and in so doing, narrowing down what was necessary for this team to, just maybe, be in a position to contend for something in 2005.

I think the Orioles have gone a long way toward doing that.  To fill out the lineup, they need a platoon partner for Bigbie, a right fielder and a first baseman (moving Palmeiro to the DH spot), and arguably a center fielder unless they're prepared to live with Matos' miserable bat in order to keep his glove in the lineup.  (Another possibility would be to move Mora to center and get a third baseman instead.)  That's probably not realistic for one off-season, but at least the Orioles know what they need to do and they should be able to obtain at least some of what they need.  For the pitching staff, they could probably use one more starter (though I don't regard this as an absolute necessity, quite frankly) and perhaps a truly reliable right-handed arm for the pen.

All the expressed disappointment aside, I think that this year's team is better than last year's and, without stretching things too far, it shouldn't be that difficult to construct a club in 2005 that's better than this year's.

The glass overflowing, but a case can be made that it's half-full, rather than half-empty.

Now the minor leagues...don't get me started.

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