A Single-Minded Offense
Scratching Beneath the Surface Uncovers Worrisome Signs for the O's Bats
Kerry's Calculus for August 19, 2003


Let's take a look at where the Orioles offense ranks in the American League, through games of August 18:
Category Rank
Batting Average    5th
Runs 7th
Slugging Pct.  9th
Doubles 12th
Triples 10th
Home Runs 8th
Bases on Balls 12th
On Base Pct. 8th

The ballpark, given the historical impact of Camden Yards, is surely playing a small role in the rankings, but if things appear a bit incongruous to you, you're not the only one.  The club's ranking in runs scored has slipped slightly of late, but they're still in the middle of the league despite an awfully poor showing in virtually all supporting offensive categories other than batting average.  

It's not displayed in the above table, but the Orioles lead the American League in singles, which is what's driving the solid batting average ranking.  Basically, this is a single-hitting offense.  The home run ranking is mediocre; the double and triple rankings are poor.  The 9th place ranking in slugging percentage is artificially supported by the natural covariance associated with batting average.  In other words, all those singles are driving up the team's slugging percentage.  In terms of Isolated Power, the Orioles rank 11th in the league (.146, just .001 ahead of 12th place Cleveland).  

The slugging percentage ranking effect is duplicated in the OBP categorical rankings.  The Orioles are eighth in on base percentage because of their fifth place batting average.  For the season, the Orioles rank 12th in walks with 337 in 123 games, a pathetic 2.7 per contest.  The season's total is exactly three more bases on balls than the Detroit Tigers--that's the worst-offensive-team-in-the-league-by-a-mile Detroit Tigers--have drawn in exactly the same number of games.

Perhaps you've spent the season scratching your head trying to figure out how the Orioles have managed to score as many runs as they have despite the relatively poor displays of power and plate discipline; I know I have.  I think most of us expected the Orioles to struggle mightily to score runs and yet here we are, more than halfway into August, and the team has spent the entire season at or above the AL average in runs scored.  

What's the explanation?

To be honest, I'm still not sure.  The team isn't hitting any better with runners in scoring position than it is overall, so even the so-called "clutch" factor isn't driving the show.

One thing I am certain about:  this is a lousy offensive team, despite the ranking in runs scored.  There's simply no way to reconcile the relatively poor power numbers and the truly miserable walk numbers (Melvin Mora, who has missed 38 games thus far, leads this team in walks with 43!) with a decent offense, even with the better than average BA, and if the trends continue, by season's end the Orioles will have fallen another spot or two in the run rankings.  It won't be enough to drop to 11th or 12th, where they were expected to finish in pre-season projections, but the trend is clear.

The main point is that the Baltimore offense is being driven largely by singles, the baseball world's most notoriously variable offensive statistic.  The basic building blocks of the modern offensive machine--power and walks--are largely missing.  It is imperative that the front office realize this fact and not conclude that the club is, for instance, "one big stick" away from a strong offense.  A more "nuanced" look at the big picture, made with a critical eye, leads to a very different interpretation.

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