Approximately a month-and-a-half ago I wrote an extremely pessimistic piece about the prospective fortunes of the Orioles franchise ("Game Over," June 18, 2007).  Very shortly after that article was published on-line, the Orioles shook up the Warehouse by hiring baseball lifer Andy MacPhail as the club's new president.  We were assured at the time that the hiring of MacPhail signaled a new day for the franchise; we were told, in effect, that Peter Angelos was going to take a giant step away from the baseball table and that MacPhail had, for all practical purposes, carte blanche to run the organization as he saw fit within some general budgetary confines.  Of course, we've heard this before, but the new claims gained some degree of credibility because of the identity of the new man in charge; MacPhail, the conventional wisdom goes, wouldn't have taken the job if he wasn't firmly convinced that he'd be in sole control of the team's baseball operations.  This claim is not without a sense of validity.

While I'm not ready to completely accept this line of thinking (I need to be convinced by actions, over time; the history of dashed expectations is longer than my arm, after all), I'm not prepared to simply dismiss it either.  Call me skeptically optimistic, if that means anything.  If this turns out to be true, June's missive may have been premature and, in the end, incorrect.  I'd like nothing better.

In any case, for the sake of argument, let's assume that what we've been told is in fact true.  Angelos has backed off; MacPhail can do what he likes.  There's a chance, in this scenario, for the franchise to finally begin to move forward after a ten-year slumber.  With that assumption in mind, let's look at the Orioles current roster--the 40-man, with, perhaps, a comment or two about players of relevance not presently on the 40-man roster--and examine the players' presumed value to the club, if any, going forward.  The goal is to try to forge a sense of where the Orioles ought to be going from this point on, given what they have to work with.

Pitchers (in alphabetical order)

Danys Baez:  Has has a dreadful season to date, largely because of his propensity to yield gopher balls and a high rate of walks.  He's actually held opponents to a .221 batting average.  Baez has never been this bad before, but he's never been a world-beater either.  He has, for the most part, been a capable reliever during his career, particularly if not asked to take on a lot of heavy lifting.  Anointing him as the 8th inning setup man before the season and sticking with him come hell or high water is probably the single biggest reason for Sam Perlozzo's demise as the Orioles' manager.  Baez is signed for two more years; he's guaranteed another $10 million.  The Orioles overpaid for him and would have to all but release him at this point to be rid of him; no one's going to pick up that contract, or even any significant part of it, and no one's going to give anything in return for it.  The Orioles are, for all practical purposes, stuck with Baez.  He's never going to earn the contract he was signed to--there was almost never any chance of that--but he's capable of a lot better than what he's shown to date.  He'll almost certainly be on the 2008 roster, but this time he'll have to earn his way up the role ladder.

Erik Bedard:  Ace of the staff and apparently turning into one of the top five starters in the American League, if he's not already.  Bedard's having the breakthrough season the Orioles have been looking for for some time and is a legitimate #1 starter, something the Orioles haven't had at least since Mike Mussina was in his prime.  The Orioles control Bedard's rights through the 2009 season.  They should be making every attempt to lock him up long-term right now.  I would say that they have until the end of the 2008 season to determine whether Bedard is willing to sign with the team long-term.  If he is, do it, and the sooner the better.  He'll be 29 next March but, partly as a result of his 2003 injury, doesn't have a lot of mileage on his pitching arm.  If the Orioles determine that Bedard wants to test the free agent market following the 2009 season then, by the beginning of spring training 2009 at the latest he should have been shipped off elsewhere with a big, fat return from someone.  Under no reasonable circumstances can the Orioles afford to relive the Mike Mussina/B.J. Ryan couple-of-sandwich-picks debacles of the relatively recent past.  If Bedard can't be re-signed--and the Orioles should float something like five years/$75M to him right now, in my opinion--the Orioles should not enter his walk year with him on the roster.  Hopefully it won't come to that, but they must be prepared.  Regardless, barring injury, he will certainly be the club's #1 starter entering the 2008 season.

Rob Bell:  Has done a decent job in relief, for the most part, since being recalled earlier this season.  He's basically bulk right-handed relief at this point as far as a team like the Orioles (who have, if nothing else, significant depth at the starting pitcher position) is concerned.  He'd pitched pretty well as a starter with Norfolk prior to his recall and the question is whether he'd be willing to accept a bullpen role to come back (assuming he pitches reasonably well over the final two months of the season) at a low wage or whether he's game to try to catch on elsewhere as a starting pitcher.  Given the problems in rotations all over baseball, you'd have to think someone would give him a chance to start, so if that's what he wants, he's gone.  In fact, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Bell is moved in a waiver deal before the end of August.  Either way, unless he feels some incredible sense of obligation to the Orioles for this year's shot, I don't expect him to be back in 2008.

Kris Benson:  Missed an entire season due to injury for the second time in his career; was a dubious pick up in the first place given the status of the club at the time.  Contract is expiring ($500K buyout for 2008); assuming he's healthy, he'll have to settle for someone offering him a minor league deal with a spring training major league invitation.  Under no circumstances should that someone be the Orioles.  Adios.

Kurt Birkins:  Turns 27 in a week or so (8th pro season) and has been used almost exclusively as a starter at Norfolk this season, where he's done a decent job.  Pounded in very limited big league action this year.  Given the problems the Orioles have had finding a lefty backup to Jamie Walker, Birkins' virtual absence from the 25-man-roster speaks volumes.  His use as a starter is interesting as well; he'd probably be 11th or 12th on the organizational depth chart next year.  Unless the team sees him as a potential contributor in the bullpen next year for some reason, I see him being exposed this off-season and someone will probably take a flier on him.  Good chance he's gone.

Chad Bradford:  Has been almost exactly as advertised.  Has been a bit shaky when asked to do too much, but that should have been expected.  If left to his comfort role as a right-handed specialist, seems perfectly capable of reliably delivering.  He's signed for two more years at $3.5M per.  Unlike Baez, for instance, probably could be traded under the right circumstances in the off-season, but I don't expect that to happen.  Could be a contributing member of a solid pen if there's enough depth to allow him to be used selectively and very likely will be part of the mix in 2008.

Brian Burres:  Surprisingly effective this year, despite some warning signs (i.e. walks).  Every other peripheral metric has been acceptable--hits, home runs, strikeouts.  Burres is the kind of guy that Leo Mazzone had (seemingly) dozens of in Atlanta.  In some sense, makes for the perfect #5 starter/swingman (if he could even drop the walks by 1/3 or so) in that he's left-handed and shown both the ability and willingness to work out of the pen.  He's also very cheap and relatively young (turns 27 in April).  It's hard to see him getting much better than what he's shown this year.  If anyone is willing to look past all the warning signs and is willing to give up something of real value for him, he should be moved.  Otherwise, figure him to be part of the mix for the end of the rotation or a bullpen role in 2008.

Daniel Cabrera:  Here's what the numbers say--walks are down to (roughly) 2005 levels, but the strikeouts are down too (lowest since 2004 debut), he's easier to hit than ever and, despite home runs being down all around baseball, has allowed his highest HR/9IP rate ever.  Frankly, he's shown fewer flashes of dominance than at any time since his rookie season.  The overall effect?  Water treading, perhaps even a slight drop in overall effectiveness.  Now 26 years old and still relatively cheap.  It will be very interesting to see what, if anything, the Orioles do with him over the off-season.  If he's dealt, it will probably be in a package deal, but my gut tells me he's not going anywhere, at least not yet.  I figure that the Orioles will give him at least one more chance to turn the corner before giving up the ghost and it may end up being more than one more chance; his upside is still there and that's what's tantalizing, particularly for a team like the Orioles.  ("Just imagine him turning the corner, along with Bedard and if Guthrie is for real...")  I expect him to be part of next year's starting rotation.

Cory Doyne:  Absolutely outstanding in Norfolk this season; has had some horrific appearances with the big club in very limited opportunities to date.  Also had a very odd set of quotes in a Baltimore Sun article which made him sound as though he wasn't ready, psychologically, to pitch at the big league level.  Followed that with nearly a week off and his best major league performance of the year which was in turn followed by his demotion to Norfolk.  He's not that old (turns 26 in less than two weeks), he's very cheap and he does have nearly four months of extremely well-pitched baseball in Triple-A on his resume.  His historic problem in the minor leagues was shaky control, so keep an eye on the walk rate.  If he rights the ship and pitches effectively for the final few weeks of the International League season I would expect to see him recalled in September.  If he pitches acceptably in the season's final month he'll probably be given a shot at earning a job with the big club in spring training.

Jeremy Guthrie:  As big a positive surprise as the Orioles have had in years, the kind of surprise that, if it proves to be real and not some kind of one-year fluke, would significantly alter the organizational depth chart.  Guthrie has pitched like a legitimate #1/#2 starter this season.  Almost without exception, even when he hasn't been at his best he hasn't fallen apart.  He'll be 29 next year.  He's very cheap and he won't even be arbitration eligible for some time.  If he's for real (i.e. if he can keep this up for the next few years at least) the Orioles will have found a true diamond in the rough.  Things like this are exceedingly rare, but he will certainly be penciled into next year's rotation, near the top, barring a complete collapse during the final two months of this season.

Jim Hoey:  Having a wonderful season in the minor leagues (Bowie and Norfolk combined), will probably be recalled when the rosters expand in September, if not sooner, and will very likely be given every opportunity to win a job in next year's O's bullpen.  If he can make the transition to the major leagues--and his minor league performance suggests he should be able to do so--he'd be a huge lift to the Orioles' relief corps.

Jim Johnson:  Suffering through a less than wonderful season at Norfolk and has fallen on the Orioles' depth chart.  Probably gets an invite to camp next year but unless there's a rash of injuries and a lot of poor pitching by the seven-plus pitchers ahead of him, has almost no chance to make the rotation.  Unless the organization sees him as a candidate for bullpen success (I don't, for what that's worth), he'll probably be shipped back to Norfolk for 2008.

Adam Loewen:  Has to recover from his elbow problem and figure out a way to throw more strikes.  The loss of almost all of 2007 for developmental purposes is a disappointment, but since he spent half of 2006 with the big club, was in the rotation at the start of this season and was "effective" (despite an absolutely unacceptable walk-rate in his first six starts this year), I'd expect him to be in the 2008 rotation as long as he's healthy.  He'll certainly be given every opportunity to start the season with the Orioles.

Garrett Olson:  Has had a cup of coffee with the Orioles this season and will spend more time with the big team by September, though how much he works remains to be seen.  He's had a splendid season with Norfolk and has smartly moved up the organizational chain the past couple of seasons.  Appears to have absolutely nothing left to prove in the minor leagues and is Exhibit A in the Orioles' improved starting pitching depth.  Will and should be given every opportunity to burst into next year's rotation.

John Parrish:  I understand that left-handers have the lifespan of an igneous rock, but what, exactly, does John Parrish have to do to be dumped off the active roster?  He turns 30 in a few months and has been a part of this organization since 1996.  In his last 112 major league appearances (this dates back to 2004) he's walked 105 men in 124.1 innings.  In his career as a minor leaguer (that's 466.2 innings) Parrish has walked roughly 4.3 men per nine innings.  For his major league career (150 G, 216.1 IP) he's walking approximately seven men per nine innings.  It's time the Orioles gave up on this experiment once and for all.  He has a very live arm, there's never been any question about that, but there's no evidence at all that he's learned how to throw strikes.  Enough already!  If Parrish is on the 40-man roster--or even, I'd argue, in the organization--next March, I'll take it as a bad sign.

Chris Ray:  His performance prior to being disabled in July with an elbow problem had many people questioning whether he had the mental make up to handle the closer's role.  It's a matter of timing; in nearly all respects, Ray's peripheral numbers in 2007 are as good or better than they were in 2006 when he posted an ERA 1.7 runs lower than the 4.43 mark he sported when placed on the disabled list.  This isn't to say that there aren't issues; Ray has shown a nasty propensity for yielding home runs in his short career and has had a tendency to lose command and control.  To have a chance to become an elite big league closer, Ray will have to take a step forward in both of these areas.  Still, Ray is young (25), cheap (he won't be arbitration eligible until after the 2008 season), extremely talented and homegrown.  Given the seemingly never-ending organizational problems procuring reliable bullpen depth it's virtually certain--assuming the elbow injury is as innocuous as we've been led to believe--that Ray will be the team's designated closer entering the 2008 season.

Sendy Rleal:  Has spent time with both Frederick and Bowie this season and the overall results have been less than encouraging.  He had his crack to carve out a meaningful role with the big league team last year when the bullpen was in utter disarray and, for the most part, muffed it.  He's 27 years old now and is in his eighth season pitching professionally in the United States.  Following a stellar season with Bowie in 2005, he's moved steadily backwards.  At this point there's no chance of him finding a spot on the Orioles' 2008 opening day roster and his presence within the organization at any level is in some doubt.

Paul Shuey:  Given that his minor league performance this year was so uninspired, his recall to the big league club in mid-June was curious.  I've always speculated that the explanation centered around the hope that Shuey would show enough at the big league level to garner the interest of some desperate, bullpen-weary would-be-contender who would pony up something of value in exchange for him.  That hasn't really worked out and Shuey has remained on the big league roster mostly because of a lack of good alternatives.  It's extremely difficult to imagine the scenario by which the then 37-year-old right-hander would still be part of the O's organization next spring.

Steve Trachsel:  An emergency signee once it was clear that Kris Benson would miss the entire season, Trachsel managed to pitch effectively--despite not pitching at all well--for about two months.  By mid-June, the roof began to cave in.  By all reports, the Orioles tried to deal Trachsel to anyone for anything without success and by the end of June the results began to catch up with the veteran right-hander whose peripheral numbers range from subpar to dreadful.  At that point he was placed on the disabled list with a strained gluteus muscle and when activated the dive into ignominy continued.  Even if he finishes the season with the Orioles--a more likely prospect with each passing week--there's absolutely no reason at all that he should be with the organization in 2008.

Jamie Walker:  Essentially reprise the Chad Bradford comment here, but substitute "left" (and its variants) for "right" (and its variants).  Walker's also due $1 more in both 2008 and 2009 than Bradford.  Barring an unlikely off-season trade, Walker will enter 2008 as the Orioles' first left-handed option out of the bullpen.

Jaret Wright:  Injured, over-priced and bad.  That's a lethal combination.  The inexplicable trade for Wright became even more infuriating when, to no one's surprise, Wright's season (for all practical purposes) came to an end following his third incomplete start of the season on April 29 (he'd already been on the disabled list once).  Three starts, 10.1 innings, 11 runs (eight earned), 12 hits, nine walks.  Wright's baseball career may be over.  His Orioles' career certainly is.

Position Players (by position)

Catchers
Paul Bako:  This year's backup catcher.  Bako's a capable defensive backstop and a pretty good handler of pitchers but has no offensive game to speak of which is why he's been a second stringer for his entire major league career (which dates to 1998).  Given the value of defense for backup catchers and the lack of obvious alternatives in the organization (the O's clearly believe that J.R. House doesn't have the glove to fill the role) and Bako's low price tag ($900,000) one has to conclude that he has a good chance to retain his role for 2008.  What may give some pause about this possibility is how clearly inadequate it was to have Bako and Alberto Castillo splitting time as starters when Ramon Hernandez was on the DL.

Ramon Hernandez:  Signed through 2009 with a club option for 2010.  He will be the starter (barring injury) on opening day 2008.  Hernandez ended up missing most of April and roughly half of June due to injury this season and when he has played has shown a disappointing dip in power which has significantly diminished his offensive value in 2007.  There are no in-house alternatives to Hernandez and few reasonable options available outside the organization.  The hope has to be that Hernandez reverts to 2006 form down the road.

Infielders
Brandon Fahey:  Recalled in late June after Miguel Tejada and Freddie Bynum were disabled and has played very sparingly since.  Fahey faded badly after winning a semi-starting job with the Orioles in 2006 and that fade continued right into 2007; he was having a dreadful year at AAA Norfolk when recalled.  The Orioles seem to be beyond the point of self-delusion with Fahey who, at this point (he turns 27 in January) projects--as a best case scenario--to nothing more than an extended option jack-of-all-trades at the major league level.  His willingness to play just about anywhere seems to be his strongest asset.  He has very little in the way of an offensive game--little power, no on-base proclivities and not much of an ability to hit for average.  It's hard to see a major league role for him with the Orioles in 2008.

Chris Gomez:  Better than the average major league utility man, but at this point, probably not good enough to hold down a starting job in the major leagues.  Gomez has filled in more than adequately for the Orioles at all four infield positions since 2005, subbing a starter on occasion against left-handed pitchers and when everyday players have gone down with injuries.  The Orioles will almost certainly try to bring him back for a fourth season with the organization in 2008.

Luis Hernandez:  Plucked from the Braves' organization off waivers last October.  Luis did a nice job in limited action with the Orioles before being farmed out again on August 5 "to play every day" at Norfolk.  His glove has carried him throughout his professional career because, bluntly stated, he's shown absolutely nothing with the bat that would merit his ever having reached AAA ball, let alone the big leagues.  His career minor league numbers?  .251/.300/.325.  Forgive me, but that doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies, though he is only 23.  Much as I'd like it to be otherwise, I find it extremely difficult to see Hernandez ever playing a role of significance with the Orioles or any other organization even with his plus defense.

Aubrey Huff:  Signed for relatively big money through 2009, Huff has, to date, been a near-total bust for the Orioles.  Known for his defensive weaknesses, Huff must hit and hit big to be a valuable member of any team and that simply hasn't happened.  His power dearth this season has been alarming and depressing.  Much like Danys Baez, the Orioles are likely stuck with Huff--given his innate limitations, season-long slump and contract commitments it's hard to imagine who would be willing to trade anything of meaning for him or pick up a substantial portion of his contract.  Thus, the Orioles are left to more or less hope that Huff reverts to 2002-04 form offensively.  While that may be wishful thinking (Huff turns 31 in December), he's presently suffering through what is by far his worst season since 2001.  Barring injury or some kind of bizarre miracle, Huff will be on the opening day roster in 2008.

Kevin Millar:  He really doesn't sport power sufficient to be a starting big league first baseman, but on an offensively-challenged team like the Orioles anyone who does anything very well offensively is noteworthy.  Millar gets on base; he has his entire career.  And he still has some pop, just not as much as you'd like.  Millar is still a decent offensive player; on a good offensive team he's the kind of guy who'd start a couple of times a week and come off the bench when needed.  On the Orioles, he hits in the middle of the lineup virtually every day and he has arguably been the second best offensive player on this team (behind Brian Roberts).  Of course, this far more an indictment of the Orioles' offense than it is a testament to Millar, but it's not as though the veteran is blocking anyone in the Orioles' farm system.  Millar will be 36 in September, but is comparatively inexpensive.  Unless the Orioles are prepared to go out and make a big free agent market splash or trade for an upper tier first baseman, I fully expect the club to offer Millar a one-year contract to be its most-of-the-time first baseman in 2008.  I would, however, fully anticipate the Orioles pushing very hard to upgrade the position in 2009 by bringing in someone younger and with more power.

Melvin Mora:  Mora's another contract albatross around the Orioles' necks.  He's guaranteed through 2009 and there's a club option for 2010, which I can't imagine being picked up.  With Mora due roughly $17 million over the next couple of seasons, having suffered an injury that caused him to miss roughly five weeks in the middle of this season and declining (probably irrevocably) substantially from the level of play that he exhibited in 2003-04, the Orioles are almost certainly stuck with Mora for the duration.  It's not so much that Mora is a terrible player right now--he's not.  He's probably more or less an average major league third baseman at this point.  The problem is that he's likely to get worse and the Orioles will have to deal with that decline for the next couple of years.  Mora is all but certain to be the O's starting third baseman entering the 2008 season.

Brian Roberts:  One of the top second baseman in baseball and as close to a star position player as the Orioles have.  Roberts hits for average, draws walks, steals bases and has more than acceptable power for his size and position; he's also a fine defensive player.  He will be the O's leadoff man in 2008 and the Orioles face the prospect of determining what to do about Roberts' contract situation going forward.  They control his rights through 2009 but the situation with Roberts is essentially the same as it is with Bedard.  Roberts turns 30 in October and the Orioles need to determine if they want to lock him up through age 34 or 35 or whether he should be dealt for a big return.  And, as in the case of Bedard, they need to make this determination and act on it before Roberts hits the year prior to free agency kicking in.

Miguel Tejada:  Missed time due to injury for the first time in his career.  Tejada's power has dropped substantially this season and with that so, presumably, has his trade value.  Unless the Orioles view Luis Hernandez as an immediate candidate, the Orioles have no in-house replacement for Tejada should he be moved which would necessitate receiving a shortstop (or acquiring one separately) if they deal him.  The conventional wisdom at this point is that Tejada should be moved assuming fair value can be received in return (the definition of "fair value" being a debate for another time) and I would agree.  Tejada will turn 32 in May; the Orioles have him signed through 2009 for a total of $26 million.  Tejada's across the board decline in power is worrisome to say the least as is his declining range in the field.  He's in line, productivity-wise, to more or less match his performance in 1999, before he became a star.  The old guard in the Warehouse plainly overrated Tejada's overall value.  There may well be other front office personnel around baseball liable to the same mirage.

Eider Torres:  Who, you ask?  Eider Torres is a middle infielder the Orioles signed in November of 2006 after his non-descript five-year career in the Cleveland Indians organization came to an end.  Torres is a switch-hitter with little power, no on-base skills and modest batting average accomplishments.  He's done nothing at Norfolk to change anyone's impression of him as a player or re-project him as a major league prospect.  He is effectively just taking up room on the 40-man roster.  That Luis Hernandez was recalled earlier this year instead of Torres speaks volumes.  It's hard to fathom that a valuable roster spot will be wasted on Torres for a second year.

Outfielders
Freddie Bynum:  A decent, versatile role player who makes a lot more sense on a good offensive team than a poor one (since his desired use as a fill-in--late-inning defensive replacement and pinch runner--would have more likely use than the undesired use as a fill-in--pinch hitting).  Bynum played better than should have been expected in a limited role before being disabled in early July.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's back in 2008.

Jeff Fiorentino:  A disappointing 2007 season.  After repeating the year at Bowie, a significant improvement was expected.  Instead, Fiorentino has, if anything, regressed slightly.  After a horrid beginning to the season, the 24-year-old's numbers perked up, but a close look reveals just 27 extra base hits in 100 games (through Aug. 4) and a significant diminution in walks.  Fiorentino can't have fallen off the O's depth chart--after all, there is no depth to speak of.  But instead of becoming the obvious heir apparent, serious questions remain about his ability to handle a major league job.  Given the lack of alternatives, Fiorentino may get a cup of coffee with the Orioles in September and will probably begin 2007 in Norfolk.  But to some extent, 2008 is likely to represent put up or shut up time for Fiorentino (who, in fairness, was mishandled badly by the Orioles in 2005).  If he can take a step forward in Triple-A, he will remain in the club's plans and will probably be given a crack at big league job in 2008.  If not, he'll basically be Val Majewski.

Jay Gibbons:  Having an almost insanely bad season.  As I've stated many times, Gibbons is the kind of player who absolutely must do damage in the power department to have any value at all.  He has no defensive worth to speak of; he's not a good baserunner.  Offensively, he doesn't walk and he's never been a very high average guy.  Jay Gibbons' entire value as a player is his ability to hit for power--and even there, he's never been a top-of-the-league type.  But he has had plus power throughout most of his career.  This year, the power has simply dissipated and, as a result, he's been one of the most worthless players in the big leagues this season and has been relegated to part-time duty.  A common theme in this piece has been bad long-term contracts and Gibbons' deal is another in a long list.  He's in the second year of a four-year, $21.1 million deal; this would have been a bad deal without a two-month long stint on the DL last year and this year's misery, but in hindsight the deal is atrocious rather than just bad.  As is the case with Huff and Mora and Baez, the Orioles are stuck with Gibbons and simply have to hope that at some point he rebounds enough to be of value to them or someone else.  The signs, almost halfway into this contract, aren't good.  Release is always a theoretical possibility, but I can't see the Orioles simply kissing the nearly $12 million that they owe Gibbons for 2008-09 goodbye.  However, if he continues to stink anywhere near this badly into next season they'll have to consider cutting their losses.  For the time being, expect him to be on next year's roster.

Jon Knott:  Turns 30 in 2008.  He's had some interesting seasons in the minor leagues in his career but at this point is regarded as a AAAA player.  Has some definite pop, but doesn't have a position and teams around baseball have been reluctant to commit a roster spot for players like him.  Think of him as kind of a right-handed version of Jay Gibbons, with a somewhat better batting eye but without the major league pedigree.  Hasn't really hit all that well this season with Norfolk and has only had extremely limited opportunities with the big club this season despite its palpable lack of power.  Given his age, limitations and the systemic bias around baseball towards players of his ilk it's hard to see him filling a role in the Orioles organization in 2008.

Val Majewski:  Imagine what might have been if Majewski hadn't been injured in 2004.  Coming off a better-than-solid season with AA Bowie as a 23-year-old Majewski probably would have been in line for a long, long look with the Orioles in 2005.  Instead a shoulder injury forced him to miss the entire '05 season and he really hasn't ever fully recovered.  He played about 2/3 of a season at the Triple-A level in 2006 with modest results.  Bumped back to Bowie in 2007 he performed unremarkably, if adequately, before being promoted to Norfolk in late July and got off to a miserable start there.  Majewski was unquestionably the organization's top outfield prospect three years ago.  Today, despite modest (at best) competition, he's probably fallen behind both Nolan Reimold and Jeff Fiorentino (despite the fact that the former missed most of the '07 season with a strained oblique muscle and the other has essentially stagnated).  Majewski turns 27 in March and he really hasn't been the same player since the injury.  In 97 games split between Delmarva and Frederick in 2003, Majewski hit 12 home runs and slugged better than .530.  At Bowie in 2004 he hit 15 home runs and slugged .490 in 112 games.  At Ottawa in 2006 he hit four home runs in 99 games and slugged .381.  In 104 games thus far this season between Bowie and Nofolk he's hit three home runs and is slugging just under .400.  I would guess at this point that Majewski will open 2008 at Norfolk but his days as a serious major league prospect are probably over. 

Nick Markakis:  Hasn't taken the bold step forward everyone was looking for.  This isn't to say that Markakis is having a bad year.  But at first glance he hasn't been any better this year than last.  In fact, his numbers to date in 2007 are almost literally identical to those of 2006.  He has popped more doubles and he's drawn a somewhat higher ratio of walks.  In fact, there has been an incremental improvement, but that's just the point--the improvement has been incremental...except in the area of home runs, which are, in fact, being hit a lower per AB ratio than a year ago.  That, I believe, is the source of the disappointment, such as it is.  This isn't to diminish Markakis' skills, which are considerable.  He's still a relatively tough out; he's a fine baserunner and a plus defensive outfielder.  And, not to be ignored, is the fact that he's doing all of this as a 24-year-old.  He still projects to get better--possibly much better.  He certainly will be the Orioles' starting right fielder next year and presumably for many years.  It would be truly gratifying to see what he's capable of doing playing on a good offensive team.

Corey Patterson:  After a horrible first three months of the season with the bat, Patterson finally responded with a big July (.340, four home runs), but even then only managed an .869 OPS for the month.  .869 is good, but it's telling when a player hits .340 and 80% of his home runs in a single month and still can't dent the .900 OPS threshold.  The fact is Patterson has skills; he always has.  He's a top-flight defensive center fielder and a dangerous base stealer.  He has raw power.  But for every skill he possesses he has at least one weakness--no batting eye to speak of, horrible inconsistency in the power department, the ability to make outs by the bushel and a maddening tendency to swing and miss.  The fact is, if Patterson was ever capable of consistently maintaining an .869 OPS, he'd be a major contributor, wherever he played.  Unfortunately, Corey has never maintained that level of play for even half a season, let alone a full one.  His career OPS is .711.  Patterson turns 28 in about a week and I think it's reasonable to assume that he's never going to "put it all together" offensively.  The ups and downs, the highs and lows, are par for the course.  If you take on Patterson full-time you have to accept that this is what you're going to get.  (This year, Patterson's home runs are way off, even compared to last year, even with the big July surge.)  Patterson is a free agent at the end of the season and it remains to be seen if the Orioles are going to make a move to keep him.  If he manages to procure a multi-year offer from someone, I don't see how the Orioles can match it.  But a one-year deal might--might--be a possibility, given the relative lack of in-house alternatives (Jay Payton is regarded by some as an option) and the overall state of the franchise.  My gut tells me that Patterson will be elsewhere in 2008.  My head tells me that the Orioles shouldn't work particularly hard to prevent it.

Jay Payton:  Payton has never been a great player, but he's having as bad a year offensively as he's ever had in his career (which began in 1998).  Payton still plays hard and he's still a better-than-average defensive outfielder but his offensive capabilities--which were never all that spectacular--seem to have decreased substantially in 2007.  Basically he's slipped a bit in every phase of offense but particularly in the power department.  Payton was probably always best off as a fourth outfielder on a good team but if there was any doubt about that earlier in his career there can't be question about it today.  Payton is signed through 2008; his price tag next year is $5 million.  This is yet another example of a player who is unlikely to be moved this off-season and may end up being at least a partial replacement in centerfield if Corey Patterson flies the coop.

Adam Stern:  A complete waste of roster space.  Stern was the player-to-be-named-later when the Orioles dumped Javy Lopez on the Red Sox last year.  With apologies to Winston Churchill, never have so few done so little for so many.  Stern, who will be 28 in February, simply doesn't have the skills necessary to be even a fifth outfielder at the major league level.  Everyone knows it but the Orioles are so thin in position player prospects that it's apparently deemed acceptable for him to take up space on the 40-man roster.  Fiorentino, Majewski and Nolan Reimold are all infinitely more interesting players, for a variety of reasons, than Stern who has a good glove, pretty good speed and very little else to recommend him.  By no means should he be on the 40-man roster next season.

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