When the dust settled at the end of the 2003 season Brian Roberts was, sabermetrically speaking, better offensively than the average American League second baseman.  Not a whole lot better, but better nonetheless.  Of course, second base is a dramatically weak position in the AL these days, but still...better is better, no?

Probably.  It appeared that Roberts was fading in the second half of last season, but a poor August was followed by a September in line with his overall season numbers.  2003's total performance may well be reasonably indicative of likely future performance.

Brian Roberts is, pretty clearly, never going to be a great player.  It's also debatable whether he can be a good player.  But it does appear, to this observer anyway, that Roberts is probably capable of being a non-hole.  That is to say, Roberts showed over the course of the 2003 season that he was good enough to legitimately hold down a big league job without hurting his team.

Brian doesn't do anything particularly well, other than run the bases perhaps, and there are several things he's doesn't do well at all.  His biggest shortcoming is a lack of power.  It's very, very difficult to get excited about a player with a sub-.100 Isolated Power mark, and Roberts posted an .098 in 2003 and is .091 for his career.  The ballpark isn't helping Roberts at all, in this regard.  Given his profile--speed but little raw power--Camden Yards is going to naturally suppress the abilities of a guy like Roberts, who depends on his speed for doubles and triples and has little chance of hitting the ball out of the park.  Camden Yards is a terrible double/triple park, but is generally good for home runs.  It's a poor fit for Brian.

Beyond the power quotient, Roberts' batting average is reliable, but nothing to jump up and down about and he draws a very average number of walks.  And all of this is still good enough to be above average at his position.

Roberts has demonstrated the ability to be a good baserunner and is a fine base stealer (80% success in 55 career attempts).

Defensively, Roberts has shown solid ability and range at second.  The outstanding defensive question about him has been whether he has the arm to play short, likely a moot query now, given the Orioles' acquisition of Miguel Tejada.

Whether Roberts has a future with the Orioles, other than as a possible utility man, is highly debatable at this stage.  The club has Jerry Hairston--a similar player, with what may be a bit more oomph and certainly more flash in the field--healthy again to play second and the team's top minor league position player prospect--Mike Fontenot--is poised to begin the season at AAA Ottawa.  Fontenot, in addition to being significantly younger than Roberts or Hairston, almost certainly has a higher ceiling than either of the incumbents and, barring stunted development in 2004, is likely the club's second baseman of the future.  This makes Roberts (and Hairston) expendable.  Given the paucity of second base talent around the big leagues these days, surely the club can make some significant use of these players in a trade situation.

TO SUCCESSFULLY CONTRIBUTE NEXT SEASON HE MUST:

1. Find a role.
2. Find a way to get on base more.  I've been saying this since Roberts' first season in the minors--he's never going to hit for power, that much is obvious.  If he is ever to be a truly plus offensive player, he's going to have to get on base a whole lot more often than he currently does.
3. Develop some defensive versatility.  While he can probably wangle a job as a second baseman, strength at infield positions waxes and wanes; Roberts would find himself a whole lot more in demand if he could demonstrate the ability to play infield positions other than second base.
4. Figure out how to battle back in the count (see below)

NOTES: Now has 55 career extra base hits in better than 900 plate appearances...a switch-hitter, showed far more patience from the left side (40 walks in 331 ABs) than the the right side (6 BBs in 129 ABs)...getting ahead/falling behind was crucial to Roberts' rate of success/failure:  after getting ahead 1-0 went .306/.405/.461 in 193 ABs; after falling behind 0-1 was .218/.268/.267 in 206 ABs; after getting ahead 2-0 was .333/.518/.517 in 60 ABs; after falling behind 0-2 was .127/.127/.152 in 79 ABs...Roberts drew zero walks after falling behind 0-2; on 3-2 counts, Roberts was a demon (.340/.521/.472 in 53 ABs)...two of his five home runs were grand slams despite only eight plate appearances with the bases loaded; he had only three home runs in the other 504 plate appearances.

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