BRIAN ROBERTS

Let's start with the good news:  in his limited big league stint in 2002 (a result of the terrible first half of the season put forth by incumbent starter Jerry Hairston), Brian Roberts drew some walks.  Not a ton of walks, mind you, but enough to indicate some recognition on the infielder's part of what kind of a player he'd need to be to have a big league career beyond that only recognized by those whose hobby is to memorize The Baseball Encyclopedia.

Roberts has virtually no power--never has and probably never will.  (He's 25 years old; he's 5-9, 170 pounds.  He's a switch-hitting middle infielder.  We'll leave it there and let you draw your own conclusions.)  

It was pretty obvious to most observers, as he was moving up the frayed rope that has been the Orioles farm system for the past decade, that if Roberts was to be a starting big leaguer, he was going to have to get on base.  A lot.  And he showed some signs of this as an Orioles farmhand.  

So what did he do when he was recalled in 2001?  That's right.  He became a free swinger.  In 2001, in 293 plate appearances, Roberts drew a pathetic 13 bases on balls.  That would be a dreadful total for a big-time power hitter, but for a player whose only chance offensively is to get on base, it's brutal.  Roberts' on-base percentage in 2001 was .284.

In light of all that, his 2002 walk rate (15 in 149 plate appearances) represented a dramatic awakening.  Not as dramatic as it needs to be--Roberts would probably have to walk at close to twice this rate to be a significant positive offensive performer, assuming a decent batting average--but a marked improvement nonetheless.

Now the bad news--Roberts hit an anemic .227 in 2002 (.253 in 2001), and his OBP improved only slightly (.308).  His OWP (.324) was actually worse than in 2001 (.349).

In other words, Roberts took a step forward offensively in 2002 and then took a step-and-a-quarter back.

Defensively, the story is only slightly better.  Roberts started 25 games at second base in 2002 and finished with a Zone Rating of .816 and a fielding percentage of .977.  Among qualifying (2/3 of one's team's games) major league second basemen, Roberts would have finished in the middle of the pack in ZR and near the bottom in fielding percentage.  There's a gaping hole at shortstop right now, and it's possible that the Orioles will give Roberts, who played 51 games at the position in 2001, a chance to win the job, but this seems unlikely given that the club appeared to have decided that Roberts doesn't have the arm necessary to play short on a regular basis.  [Since the original writing, the Orioles have signed Deivi Cruz to a one-year contract, effectively mooting any possibility of Roberts getting a shot as the starting SS.]

At this stage, Jerry Hairston is clearly a better player than Brian Roberts, both with the glove and the bat.  Hairston actually specs out to be a legitimately good defensive second baseman.  His offense, while in the upper half of big league second basemen last year, is considerably more dubious.  That Roberts isn't in Hairston's league speaks volumes.

TO SUCCESSFULLY CONTRIBUTE NEXT SEASON HE MUST:

1) get on base; I don't know how to put this any more clearly, but if Roberts doesn't get on base at or near 40% of the time, he's not going to help anyone's offense

2) demonstrate some defensive versatility

3)  determine whether it makes sense to continue switch-hitting (more below)

Notes: absolutely pathetic as a right-handed hitter in 2002 (.146/.163/.171 in 41 ABs); as left-handed batter was a borderline acceptable (.264/.369/.356 in 87 ABs)...this LH/RH split wasn't nearly as dramatic in 2001, begging the question of whether it was a fluke or not...batted only four times after the All-Star break (all of them on July 30, none after September 7 recall), not a good sign for a young player on a team in a death-grip spiral downward...in what can only be regarded as a sick joke, more than 1/4 of his at-bats came as a DH/PH...another player to whom falling behind in the count was the end of the story--after getting ahead 1-0:  .311/.426/.444 in 45 ABs; after falling behind 0-1:  .159/.234/.188 in 69 ABs.

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