Peter Schmuck's recent column about the decision facing the Orioles re Jay Gibbons got me thinking, again, about the bigger picture as it pertains to the franchise.  But first, the smaller picture.

The column itself speculated that if Major League Baseball rescinds Gibbons' 15-game steroid suspension it would serve to speed up the O's decision about what to do with Gibbons.  Schmuck's position is that the team should kick Gibbons to the curb immediately if faced with the prospect of placing him on the opening day roster, eating the $12M odd dollars still owed in the process.  If the suspension remains in place, Schmuck suggests doing nothing during that time, to see whether the suspension period naturally opens up a roster spot for Gibbons--due to injury or horrific incompetence on the part of a comparable member of the team's lineup or bench.  And, if not...kick Gibbons to the curb and eat the remaining dollars.

It all seems pretty reasonable to me.

Obviously, the only way there's any chance, no matter how slight, of getting a return of any kind for Gibbons is if he plays well, and to do that he'd have to actually play regularly.  So, unless the Orioles plan to stick Gibbons in the lineup pretty much every day, they should cut him loose, either now or when the suspension's up, because who's going to sit so Gibbons can start?  Nick Markakis?  Luke Scott?  I don't think so.  Aubrey Huff?  That could be, but the Huff situation and the Gibbons situation are, from the O's point of view, pretty much identical.  The best case scenario is that Player X is impressive enough to attract a suitor and the O's dump X for something (hopefully) of value.  Scott, in fact, is on the cusp of that rationale himself, but clearly is a more attractive player in trade scenarios than Gibbons (or Huff, for that matter) for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that he's cheap and not coming off an injury-reduced season of stunning ineptitude.

[And here, we move into the bigger picture.]

The problem is that the team is still loaded with aging players with overpriced contracts that need to be moved to complete the "purging" part of the rebuilding process.  (Yes, I'm convinced that the team has, at long, long last, committed itself to rebuilding.  Saints be praised.)  

Brian Roberts is the exception to this rule; he's a player with actual real world value to other teams.  Ramon Hernandez is kind of on the borderline.  But Huff and Gibbons and Jay Payton and Melvin Mora all fall, with relative impact, into the dead weight category.

I can't blame Andy MacPhail for the fact that these guys are still around.  The Roberts situation is a delicate one, because real return has to be maximized.  Dealing Roberts is a lot like dealing Erik Bedard; it's these kinds of moves that likely will determine whether the O's rebuilding effort is relatively successful or crashes and burns because dealing players like these two gives the team the opportunity to maximize quantity and quality in return.  If the Orioles are to turn their fortunes around in the near future, players acquired in the Roberts and Bedard (and, to a certain extent, Miguel Tejada) deals are going to have a lot to do with it.  Apparently MacPhail wasn't able to get what he regarded as acceptable return from the Cubs, so Roberts is still on the roster.  Hopefully he won't still be there after the 2008 trading deadline.

Hernandez's value is at a comparatively low ebb after last year's lousy season and the Orioles don't have a replacement (nor is one obviously available); Payton's value, given his $5M price tag and pitiful 2007 campaign (and his age and the fact that he's never been all that good to begin with) is essentially zero.  Gibbons' value is arguably less than zero, with two guaranteed years at nearly $12M still due him, a dreadful campaign in the immediate rearview mirror, barely 170 games played in the past two seasons combined, and palpable offensive and defensive limitations even when he's healthy and playing comparatively well.  Huff's only a baby step or two above that of Gibbons, with two ridiculously overpriced guaranteed years of contract left and three running seasons of mediocrity.  Mora's been declining for four years to the point where he's a well below average third baseman, has two expensive guaranteed years remaining and is 36 years old...oh, and he has a full no-trade clause to boot.

When you add in the lack of position player depth in the team's farm system, it completes the picture.  Hernandez, for instance, might well be moveable right now for something useful, but until Matt Wieters is ready, there's no one to take his place.  To a certain extent, the same applies to some of the other aforementioned players.

MacPhail, in short, inherited a lousy situation, overflowing with bad contracts, and, as a result, the rebuilding process is playing out more slowly than most of us--MacPhail included I'm sure--would like.  There are still a significant number of players on the major league roster who shouldn't be present on a rebuilding team and the amount of time it takes to denude the club of them obviously retards rebuilding.

On the brighter side, at least there is a rebuilding process to slow down.  For the first time in a decade we can turn our attention to whether the Orioles are making the right moves instead of focusing on whether they're making the right kind of moves.  The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

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