A Most Dangerous Game by Bob Bryant - December 13, 2003

Jim Beattie is playing with fire.

It doesn't mean that Orioles fans will be burned, but it's certainly possible, with the approach that he and Mike Flanagan have established to rebuild the Orioles into a contender. This doesn't mean that my 'official position' of support has wavered over the past twenty-four hours, but I do recognize that the path they have chosen is a treacherous one. We have to keep our collective fingers crossed and hope that it works out for the best, because it is certainly a plan fraught with danger.

Opening offers have finally been made to Vlad Guerrero, Miguel Tijada, and Lopez/I-Rod. These offers again demonstrate the tack that the O's brass continued from a season ago, when the free agent market netted Rick Helling, Kerry Ligtenburg, Deivi Cruz, and Omar Daal for the Orioles.

Jim Beattie himself expressed the danger of the Orioles' approach, though it was not the intention of his remarks. He was quoted yesterday as saying, "The sands are sifting all the time as far as who could be our competition for free agents."

That's exactly right, Jim. Just as the Marlins swooped in and rented I-Rod out from underneath you a season ago when he was available for three years at $9M a year instead of the O's borderline offer of three years at $21M, thus securing a top catcher, hitter, and leader while he was still represented by Jeff Moorad instead of Scott Boras, the Orioles are in danger of the same thing happening again, in a market where several factors are, for a change, actually in the Orioles' favor.

The Orioles are buyers in a seller's market. They have cash. And this crop of free agents contains a couple of first-rate players still not even quite yet in their prime. A great combination, but the Orioles may yet throw it away. Why? To save a few million dollars.

I'm not a fan who advocates throwing more bucks at everyone coming down the turnpike because it's not my money. I understand the concept of stewardship, and I have been a personal contributor to that end for the last fifteen years, dropping an average of over a thousand dollars annually into the Orioles' coffers. So, for me, the contract issues are not always abstract. I realize it's my money being spent, as well as Mr. Angelos' and that of the other partners.

That being said, I'm going to restate my point since the off-season of 2003...for the Orioles to regain their former foothold in the free agent market as a player, not a sucker, they are going to have to overpay one or two free agents along the way. It's a simple, and seemingly still irrefutable, fact, soft market, or no soft market.

"Market Value" is something for the Orioles to consider in trades, and in second-tier free agency, but for the O's to get back in there swinging with the Big Boys, the current approach of timid offers, patience, and prudent thought probably isn't going to cut it.

The problem is, there are too many teams with too many options run by too many foolish businesspeople to think that this a rational process.

The opening offer of 5 years at 13M a year to Vlad, 3 years at 9M a year to Tijada, and 2-3 years for 6-8M to the catchers, are not offers that are going to make anyone sit up and take real notice. They just aren't. The Mariners have offered Tijada three years at 8M already. Three million dollars over three years is going to make Tijada switch coasts and play for a team that hasn't had a winning season in years, instead of in front of a packed house in Seattle every night? Everyone knows that the Vlad deal is going to take at least six years, if not seven, and at least a million more per season. I have a feeling this offer may have to do with the insurability of contracts beyond five years. The bottom line is, if the O's really want to play, they are going to have to take a chance here and there.

Why not make a real offer to Vlad, say, six years at $15M a year, with an option year/buyout, and make it clear that you're pursuing other options, such as a trade for Garciaparra, whatever, that could take the deal off the table if another deal is made? Give the agent and player a sense of urgency. Create some movement. Because, if you don't, someone else is going to. And this is a chance you don't want to miss.

As for the catchers and Tijada, I don't really care if those deals are even made, if the O's signed Aurelia and, say, traded for a decent catcher. But, if you really want to make them, you're going to have to do better than top Seattle's offer by one million more per season for Tijada.

Guys, you're failing to realize that although Camden Yards and the Orioles do still have a great deal to offer, it is, at this point, a "B" destination, not an "A".

I remember how thrilling it was when the Orioles signed Palmeiro, and then later Alomar, and Myers, and Key...and the list goes on. Yet, the Orioles "overpaid" for Palmeiro in an instance when they were basically bidding against no one. Yet, that overpayment, and the cementing of that relationship, was what made the Orioles a real player in the market, and paved the way for a two year playoff run.

You probably have to do it again, guys.

If you screw this up, we'll hear all the stories about financial accountability, blah blah blah. This club, and its fans, have moved beyond that this season. One of the best players in baseball, who has yet to even reach his prime, is out there. And he's doable.

The Braintrust had better get it done.

And being the poster boys for Financial Restraint isn't going to be the thing that makes it happen.

Challenging times call for bold strokes. It's time to place a signature on the franchise, fellows. Put "Baltimore" back on the road uniforms, and sign the best free agent to be available in possibly the decade. You can make it happen. Open the wallet, make a bold effort, and do your best. Even if you then fail, there is the knowledge that you do the best you could. Right now, I don't think that's what anyone is thinking.