Mike Mussina's 2000 season is an illustration of how a pitcher's W/L record is rarely the best determination of his true effectiveness. By almost every statistical measure Moose had one of his finest years, and yet posted only an 11-15 record. Mike led the AL in innings pitched, was 2nd in fewest base runners per game, 3rd in ERA, 3rd in complete games, 3rd in Quality Starts, and 3rd in strikeouts.
Many baseball fans and various pundits treat Win and Losses as the end all and be all of pitching performance. The bottom line is that for the first time since his rookie season Mussina lost more games than he won. This was more a function of a lack of run support than a lack of quality outings, however. While more celebrated pitchers like Andy Pettitte and Aaron Sele were carried by their offenses to the tune of 7 or 8 runs a game, Mike Mussina was stuck with the worst run support of any pitcher in either league: 3.71 runs per game. Mussina had 34 starts for the Orioles and in 22 of those games his teammates scored 3 runs or less, and he still managed to win 11 times. The case could be made that Mussina pitched so well in this "off" year that given a normal amount of runs to work with he'd have likely won 17-18 games. In the past Mussina has enjoyed very good run support while pitching for the Orioles, and the 2000 season should probably be considered just random bad luck. But these things usually even out from year to year so next season look for Mussina’s W-L record to rebound.
If Mussina had any weaknesses in 2000 they would relate to his pitch counts. This season he seemed to consistently lose his edge and some velocity at around the 110 pitch mark. Before that he held opposing hitters to about a .250 batting average, afterwards they hit him at around a .310 clip. If the Orioles had touched the plate more often in his games, he might not have been so drained by the 8th inning.
Mike Mussina became a free agent and his future as an Oriole is no more. Baltimore is in full rebuilding mode, and signing a 32 year old pitcher to a long term contract -- even one as good as Mike Mussina -- was simply not to be in their plans. Especially when Mussina can be part of a team he doesn't have to carry.
TO CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, HE MUST:
Do exactly what he did this year.
NOTES:
Mussina was significantly more effective at Camden Yards than on the road -- posting a 2.90 ERA at home vs. 4.93 elsewhere…Was better against lefties than righties in BA (.223/.281), SLG (.332/.460), and OB% (.266/.311)..Moose gave up only 5 earned runs in 27 innings against the Yanks and Red Sox and held those two teams to a collective .219 BA...Mike is the best fielding pitcher in the AL with 4 straight Gold Glove Awardsto his credit, though not this year, despite one error this year, and has committed only two in his last 1,100 innings…held opposition runners to only 16 stolen bases in 237 innings… Sandy Alomar has a career BA of .438 against Mussina while brother Roberto has hit only .129….placed eighth among AL starters in slugging percentage against, but still gives up a lot of longballs…only 12 starters in the AL gave up more than Mussina’s 28.