When I first heard about the Orioles’ trade of Matt Riley to the Texas Rangers, I was pretty annoyed.  Then I thought about it for awhile…and I modified my initial feeling…somewhat.

In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Orioles dealt Riley to the Rangers last week in exchange for a minor leaguer named Ramon Nivar.  I took a look at Nivar’s stats—personal and performance—and had a hard time believing that Nivar, or someone like him, was the best that the Birds could do in exchange for Riley, but further reflection left me believing that, in fact, this was about as good as the Orioles could do.  That is not, however, the end of the story, as far as I’m concerned…but let’s begin at the beginning.

I heard about the deal and nipped off to check Nivar’s biography and statistics, as I mentioned.  What I saw was a 25-year-old player with few attributes to be excited about.  On the positive side, Nivar is (according to the scouting reports I read) very fast.  He’s also, undeniably, a very good contact hitter.  Unfortunately, that’s pretty much where the positives end.  He’s fast, but he’s a miserable base stealer.  He’s a fine contact hitter, but in the Felix Millan sense of the term (i.e. he doesn’t strike out much, but he makes all kinds of other types of outs).  He never walks.  He has little power.  His offensive value is contained pretty much exclusively in his ability to hit for a very high average, something he’s not done regularly as a minor leaguer.  He was moved from second base to the outfield a couple of years ago and the scouting reports I’ve seen imply that he’s still learning how to get a jump on a ball in the air when playing the outfield.  And, oh yes, he’s 25.  2005 will be his eighth season of professional ball.  To sum it up, if things go very well—if Nivar learns how to be a plus defensive outfielder—he can be a decent major league spare part.  There is absolutely no reason, based on anything that I’ve seen or read about Nivar, to believe that he ever has a realistic chance to be a productive major league regular.

Given what the Orioles got in this deal (and what they gave up), I don’t think that there’s any way to reasonably describe this as a “good” deal.  A good deal is when you get more than you gave up and/or you get something you really, really wanted or needed, while giving up something that you didn’t really need.  I don’t see any way to apply either of those descriptions to this trade.  In Riley, they gave up a pitcher who does (at least in my view) have the skills necessary to be a contributing “regular” big league ballplayer.  In fact, Riley arguably has the skills necessary to be better than that.  Nivar, I would argue, simply doesn’t have the ability necessary to be that kind of player.  Even if Riley isn’t likely to achieve this level of play (and that’s debatable), he has the ability to achieve it.

So it’s not, by any analysis, a “good” trade.  But given the disparity in the level of talent between the two players, is Nivar (or the functional equivalent thereof) really as good as the Orioles could get?  Upon further review, I believe he was.

The hang up with Riley for any prospective trade suitor was the same difficulty that the Orioles were presented with—Riley had no options remaining.  The Orioles couldn’t send him down without passing him through waivers (a prospect with no chance of occurring) and neither could anyone else who traded for him.  Consider that fact from the standpoint of the Rangers, or anyone else who the Orioles might have discussed trade with:  would you part with anything of any value at all for a player who was, at best, inconsistent last year, who had a dreadful spring and who had to be kept on the major league roster or lost for nothing?  The Rangers will have to keep Riley on the major league roster all year or risk losing him with no compensation.  Given the uncertainty of Riley's ability to pitch well enough at this time to justify remaining on a big league roster for an entire season--particularly a major league roster for a club that fancies itself a postseason contender, as the Rangers do--there's little reason to expect much in the way of return.  Hence, Nivar.

So, did the Orioles “wait too long” in moving Riley?  Was he worth move in the recent past than he is now?  I doubt it.  Earlier in the off-season, he was still a player without an option for the upcoming season, and he was still coming off a poor season (though not the reinforcing bad spring).  If he was worth any more in, say, December, it was only slightly more.  Last season, he was a pitcher not doing much with no options for the forthcoming season.  To escape the “no options left” problem, you have to go all they way back to the off-season prior to the 2004 campaign.  At that point, Riley surely would have been worth more in a trade than he is now.  At the time, however, the Orioles hoped that he’d reach his potential with them.

One could argue that, given Riley’s limited trade value at the time of the Nivar deal, the Orioles should have taken the only other alternative available to them—keep him on the roster.  I, personally, think that’s a valid criticism.  Riley, however, clearly had fallen further in the eyes of the Orioles than he did in mine.  Reading the remarks of Ray Miller in the press last week I was left with the distinct impression that Miller, renowned as “pitcher’s coach,” had given up on Riley.  I suppose, if your pitching coach with a special talent for relating to his hurlers gives up on a prospect, the organization either has to give up on the prospect too or send the pitching coach packing.  Miller isn’t going anywhere.

In the end, even if the move is understandable, if there is a logic to it, it’s hard to conclude with anything other than disappointment.  A pitcher—once the organization’s top prospect—with obvious gifts, who at times looked overpowering against major league hitters in 2004, is gone and in exchange the Orioles have acquired a player who is little more than roster filler, at best.  Even if that’s the best that could be done under the circumstances, it’s hardly an outcome to jump up and down about.

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