JORGE JULIO

G GS CG GF IP TBF H R ER HR SH SF HB TBB SO WP BR/9 W L PCT ShO SV-O HLD ERA
64 0 0 51 61.2 273 60 36 30 10 2 1 2 34 52 0 14.01 0 7 .000 0 36-44 2 4.38

SEASON SUMMARY
Jorge Julio didn't pitch well at all in 2003.  There's simply no getting around it.  After a solid 2002 (even if it wasn't quite as impressive as his 1.99 ERA might suggest), Julio took a clear step backward in 2003.

If the secret to successful pitching in Camden Yards is holding down the free passes and keeping the ball in the park, Julio was the anti-OPCY pitcher this past season.  He allowed 14.01 baserunners per nine innings in '03; only six big league pitchers with at least 10 saves were worse.  The big problem leading to the high BR/9IP was Julio's 4.96 BB/9IP mark.  The final nail in the ineffectiveness coffin was his 1.46 HR/9IP mark.  His Component ERA last year was 5.05.

For a guy who routinely throws fastballs in the high 90s, Julio's SO/9IP numbers for the past couple of years (7.28 in 2002; 7.59 in 2003) are awfully unremarkable.  It's not that these are poor figures--they're not.  But they aren't in line with a short reliever with this kind of velocity.  Kyle Farnsworth is a very similar pitcher to Julio and he's averaged better than 13 strikeouts per nine innings for his career.  Julio's slider is in the mid-80s most of the time and he still doesn't have a particularly effective off-speed pitch.

After an up-and-down season through early August, Julio seemed to be righting himself, but then closed the season in miserable fashion.  From August 15 through the end of the season, in 16 appearances, Jorge threw 15 innings, allowing 19 hits, 16 runs (13 earned), six home runs and walked eight.  His ERA during this stretch was 7.80.

Due to his inconsistency, Julio was removed from the closer's role at times in 2003, but was still the primary guy--he did have 44 save opportunities and his 36th save of the season came in the team's last victory of the year.  All indications are that he'll be handed the role again in 2004, and under the circumstances, that probably makes sense.  Julio certainly has the stuff to be a closer and he'll just be 25 next season.  The Orioles' hope is that he's just a few simple tweaks away from being a vaunted end-of-game weapon.

TO CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, HE MUST:

1) Throw first pitch strikes (see below).

2) Up the strikeouts.  He has the stuff; if he can get ahead in the count, he should be able to use his overpowering fastball to retire batters on pitches out of the strike zone.

NOTES
If Julio's biggest bugaboo was the walk, it would behoove him to throw a strike in the first pitch of a sequence to batters; in 119 ABs in which he threw a strike on the first pitch, he walked only seven batters; in the 115 ABs when the first pitch was a ball, 26 batters ultimately walked...ran into regular problems with the bases empty (opposing batters: .291/.362/.480); was tougher with runners on base (.215/.341/.364).

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