If there is one thing that can be said with certainty three weeks into the 2007 baseball season it's this:  it's still very, very early.

The Orioles, after suffering a three-game sweep at the hands of the Twins in Minneapolis to open the season, have won 11 of the 15 games they've played since and now stand at 11-7 on the year.  What does this tell us about what we can expect from the club the rest of the season?  Is this a clear indication that the nine-year streak of losing seasons won't be punctuated with a tenth?  Or are we simply being teased?  There are points to be made in favor of both conclusions.

Nay:  We've seen this before.  The 2006 team--you remember them, the won that struggled mightily to reach the coveted 70-win plateau--started the year with the same 11-7 record this one now has.  And the 2005 team flirted with us for a lot longer, holding the divisional lead for most of the first half of the season before collapsing to a miserable 74-88 finish.

Yea:  This isn't the same team as last year or, for that matter, the year before.  On the day before the Orioles' opener this season I had a phone conversation with Belfryite Craig Steffen and we agreed that this club had a legitimate shot to break the sub-.500 string this year.  This isn't a team for the ages, but this unit, for the first time in years, entered the season with no clear lineup holes (when healthy) and a much deeper bullpen.  The rotation remained something of a crapshoot--and, ultimately, the team's ability to finish above .500 would almost certainly rest on how the rotation ultimately performed--but the pieces were there for a reasonable shot to break through and win a majority of the club's games.

Nay:  Three weeks is a very small sample size.  The Orioles have repeatedly worn down in the second half of seasons, often crashing and burning completely in the final 6-8 weeks.

Yea:  It's a small sample, but the Orioles haven't exactly relied on playing the weakest teams in the league.  Yes, they've played Kansas City and Tampa Bay (both of whom, it should be added, while works in progress, look a lot better themselves this year, even if it isn't necessarily reflected in the standings to date), but they've also played Minnesota, Detroit, New York and Toronto.

Nay:  Remember what happened two years ago?  In 2005, the Orioles had the wonderful start, and then injuries to a couple of key players cropped up and the team went in the tank and never recovered.  Wait until that happens this year.

Yea:  In a sense, it already has happened--the injury part, anyway.  Two members of the team's projected starting lineup missed virtually the entire opening three weeks.  Jay Payton made his first start of the year in the club's 18th game.  Ramon Hernandez is still on the disabled list and has yet to make his 2007 debut.  Jaret Wright, not surprisingly, has already been on the DL and Brian Roberts missed the last two games the team has played with flu-like symptoms.  And yet, the team has weathered the storm with aplomb.  What's more, if the team ever does have all its pieces back, you're going to see some actual depth, for the first time in recent memory.  With Payton back, someone who has actually had success as a major league hitter (Payton, Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff or Jay Gibbons) is almost certainly going to be on the bench each game along with Chris Gomez, a highly capable backup.  That's a pretty nice luxury to have.  They also have a couple of very interesting looking bats at Norfolk in Jon Knott and J.R. House, should they be needed.  There actually is some margin for error here that we haven't seen in recent years.

Nay:  The team really hasn't hit much.  Gibbons has been an offensive sieve, Miguel Tejada's not hitting for power and Huff hasn't done much either.  Ditto Brian Roberts.

Yea:  And yet, the team has been winning.  Actually, this may be the most encouraging point of all:  the team is 11-7 without anyone doing anything god-like.  I mean, there's been no Alex Rodriguez-like performance on the Orioles, no Felix Hernandez (pre-injury) type of occurrence.  No one in the starting lineup is hitting over his head (in fact, several players are underperforming); arguably no one in the rotation is overperforming either.  With the possible exception of the bullpen, collectively, there have been no "omigosh" performances.  And yet, the team is a legitimate 11-7 (having outscored its opponents 87-76 thus far this season; the Pythagorean formula projects a 10-8 record, so they're virtually dead on).

Granted, Gibbons has been a disappointment so far.  He's homerless in 15 games and has an OPS of barely .600.  Tejada has only four extra base hits in 18 games.  Huff has only four extra base hits (and an OPS below .550) in 17 games.  Roberts is hitting just .212.  But Tejada's OBP is nearly .400.  Roberts has drawn 11 walks in 16 games.  And Gibbons and Huff, while they may not be world beaters, are going to hit more than they have.  And, even if one of them does drop off the face of the earth, there are other options at hand.

Nay:  Let's face it--this just isn't a very good offensive team.

Yea:  Maybe not.  It certainly shouldn't be expected to finish near the top of the American League in runs or anything like that.  But middle of the league is starting to seem like more and more of a reasonable expectation.  One of the most promising signs thus far this season has been the unexpected (relative) patience of the team.  The club's OBP to date is .340; they've drawn 67 walks in their 18 games (617 ABs).  That's pretty impressive.  For this team, it's exceptionally impressive.  The O's are currently on pace to draw 603 walks this year.  That would be phenomenal.  The last time an Orioles team drew at least 600 walks was 1999.  In fact, they've only drawn 500 walks as a club once since 2001.  Last year's team drew just 474 and that was the second highest total for the franchise since '01.

Nay:  But the home runs are way off.  They have just 16, putting the Orioles on pace to hit just 144 for the entire season.  That would be their lowest total since 2001, a season in which, not incidentally, they lost 98 games.

Yea:  Home runs are off throughout baseball; it's presumably a function of the lousy weather early this season.  Despite the apparently poor rate, the Orioles are actually tied for ninth in the AL in home runs per game.  Not that this is anything to jump up and down about; this club isn't going to challenge for the league lead in home runs this season.  But they will very likely finish closer to the middle of the longball pack than the bottom. 

Nay:  What about Adam Loewen?  He's walking a man an inning.  Yeah, he's had success, but he's obviously dancing between the raindrops.  There's no way he can help the team succeed over the long haul with control problems of that sort.  And the only reason his ERA is so low (3.72) is that 30% of the runs he's allowed have been unearned.  The chickens will come home to roost.

Yea:  That's true.  Loewen has got to bring the walks down, and dramatically.  Right now, he's walking hitters at the same rate as Daniel Cabrera was for much of last year.  There's no pitcher in the game that can walk a man an inning and be effective.  But while Loewen has battled with his control before, it's never been this bad.  Despite all the problems, he's keeping the ball in the park and his team in games.  Imagine how effective he'll be once he and Leo Mazzone straighten out his issues the way they apparently have with Cabrera.

Nay:  Well, it's a long season.

Yea:  That is unquestionably true.

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