Jerry Hairston began the 2003 season as the Orioles' starting second baseman, was hurt in a game at Anaheim on May 20 and missed the rest of the month, as well as June, July and August, finally returning for the last few weeks of the season on September 5.  When he returned he found that Brian Roberts had done an adequate job replacing him.

Hairston's pro-rated 2003 season was nearly identical to his 2002 season, so I think we can safely assume that this is a true indication of his ability.  For each of the past two seasons, Hairston has compiled Offensive Winning Percentages slightly above the American League average for second basemen.

Hairston has demonstrated the ability to get on base a decent amount.  It's nothing overwhelming, but it's not a weak point in his game either.  The weak end of Hairston's game is power; an Isolated Power mark of .101 is nothing to brag about.  Hairston has shown good baserunning acumen and the ability to lay down a bunt (10 SHs in about 1/3 of a season in 2003).

The problem, such as it is, for the Orioles is that Hairston and Roberts play the same position and have more or less the same skill set.  Hairston's the flashier glove man, but its debatable whether this makes him significantly better defensively than Roberts.  Regardless, Jerry seems to have completely overcome his mysterious throwing ailment of a couple seasons ago.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Hairston--and Roberts, for that matter--is that Mike Fontenot plays the same position, is significantly younger than both of them and has a higher ceiling.  While Fontenot is a long shot at best to make the Orioles out of spring training, a year at AAA that resembles his 2003 AA season would probably move him to the head of the class at second base, making whomever the 2003 2B is expendable.  As it is, either Hairston or Roberts is expendable right now.  The team theoretically could give Hairston the starting job and turn Roberts into a utility man for 2003, but that wouldn't seem to give the club its best value.  Roberts and Hairston, it seems to me, may never have more trade value than the possess right now.  My impression is that Hairston is the more highly thought of player of the two--mainly because of his flashiness afield and greater big league experience.  Dealing Hairston this off-season to some 2B-starved club (and there are several out there), making Roberts the incumbent and then, after another (hopefully) decent season, dealing Roberts next off-season and moving the (hopefully) big league ready Fontenot up to the big club in 2004 might be the most leveraged move the Orioles could make.

I'm not predicting that the above scenario will play out; I just think it's the move in the best interest of the franchise, based on current personnel and future market and player development projections.

1. Continue to play at or above the level demonstrated in 2003; Hairston has really moved up a notch, offensively, since 2001.
2. Stop swinging for the fences for a week after each home run; Hairston will hit a home run here and there, but he's never going to be a big time home run hitter (he has exactly 24 in 1538 career ABs).
3. Duplicate his pre-injury performance (see below)

NOTES:  Only three AL players finished with more sacrifice bunts than Hairston--all three of those players had more than 500 plate appearances while Hairston had only 259...hit 38 points higher at home (.290) than on the road (.252)...before being hurt in May, compiled .287/.387/.382 numbers in 157 ABs; after returning was .230/.254/.344 in 61 ABs...was 9-18 with one of his two home runs when putting the first pitch in play...was .333/.417/.667 in 21 ABs with runners in scoring position and two outs; drove in 10 runs in those situations.

BACK TO THE INDEX