SEASON SUMMARY

Jerry Hairston, Jr. burst onto the scene for the Orioles during the 1999 season and impressed most observers as a heady, quick, flashy ballplayer.  The problem is that Hairston hasn't advanced at all since then and has, in some respects, declined.  Defensively, the evidence is mixed.  Hairston checked in with the fourth best Zone Rating of qualifying AL second baseman, but finished with a subpar fielding percentage of .976 (MLB 2B average:  .983) and tied Alfonso Soriano for most errors by a big league second baseman (19).  Hairston appears to be having some problems making certain throws to first base, a worrisome indication of a kind of meta-Steve Sax/Chuck Knoblauch syndrome.

Offensively the evidence is very one-sided and it's pretty much all bad.  Hairston's OWP has sunk each year, from .440 in 1999, to .383 in 2000 to .368 last year.  Of the 21 big league second baseman with at least 502 plate appearances last season, Hairston's OWP was the worst.

Though he raised his batting average to .285 in mid-June during a 17-42 hot streak from June 2 to June 14, there were already some negative signs during that stretch.  For one thing, only one of Hairston's 17 hits went for extra bases (a triple) and for another, Hairston drew exactly one walk during this time period.  In any event, the batting average itself fell fairly steadily for the rest of the season.

While Hairston's playing time in 1999 and 2000 was limited, second base was turned over to him on virtually a full-time basis in 2001.  He appeared in a team-high 159 games and, frankly, laid an egg.  The biggest problem is that Hairston, who turns 26 next May, was declining from a fairly modest level to begin with.  Hairston's composite OWP for his career is now .382.  The AL positional average over that time is .465.  Hairston's best season--his 49-game stint in 1999--wasn't that good (AL positional average in 1999:  .502).  The point is, Hairston was a below average offensive performer at his position when he played his best ball and he's declined from that relatively low level.

The Orioles have a few options other than Hairston in 2002.  Brian Roberts, who was no better than Hairston in 2001 is one.  Willie Harris, the Orioles minor league player of the year in 2001, is two years younger than Hairston, but other than his batting average he didn't set the world on fire in Bowie last season and there are questions about his defense at second base.

So while the Orioles have some other names to throw around, no one is exactly beating down the door.  Still, Hairston must not only arrest his three-year decline, he must reverse it and do so in a big way because right now he's a long way from being a starting caliber big league second baseman.

TO CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, HE MUST:

1) become more consistent defensively; 19 errors is simply too many

2) pick up every phase of his offensive game, and substantially; Hairston was the majors' worst regular offensive second baseman last year

NOTES