So here we are, a week before Memorial Day, and the Orioles continue to narrowly lead the American League East.  Savoring an off-day after a desultory week of play--splitting six games with the AL bottom feeding Royals and the sub-.500 Phillies--the Birds look ahead to a six with the disappointing Mariners and the sub-.500 Tigers.  Many contests linger down the road, however, with the Red Sox and Yankees, the two teams most likely to knock the Orioles off their current perch (pardon the pun).

The Orioles were not supposed to contend for a postseason spot in 2005.  Certainly few, if any, seriously expected contention this year.  But here we are, more than a quarter of the way into the season, approaching the unofficial start of summer, and there the team sits, atop its division.

In the process of assessing whether this is for real or simply an early season chimera it's worth noting that not everything has gone perfectly for the Orioles over the season's first seven-odd weeks.  For instance, the club just spent a week with its entire opening day outfield unavailable.  Two-thirds of that outfield remains incommunicado, though Sammy Sosa appears poised to leave the disabled list in the next day or two after missing three weeks with a staph infection.  Luis Matos has been out nearly two weeks and the last report I saw implied that he was expected to be back in another 10-12 days.  The Orioles have held their own, if not exactly thrived, during the absence of Sosa and Matos, but with one return imminent and the other in sight, the Orioles are close to having their full roster back.  Decisions, however, will need to be made to accommodate the return of these two players.

Meanwhile, the Orioles are attempting to assess the status of their pitching staff which has, of late, been a bit more unpredictable than the club would like.  The team will have to decide if, over the long haul, it can essentially stay the course or whether some kind of a significant move will need to be made to augment the starting rotation.

Here's the situation the Orioles face, as I see it.

Position Players  Let's assume for the moment that Sosa is in fact activated prior to Tuesday's series opener with Seattle.  Obviously the Orioles have to make a roster move to accommodate that.  Someone, in short, has to go, and the question is whom.  Essentially, the team has two choices.  It can return to an 11-man pitching staff (which would mean dropping James Baldwin, who was just recalled a few days ago, from the roster) or it can make a move off the team's bench.

The Orioles presently are going with a four-man bench, and two of the four players on that bench at any given time are catchers.  Now, it's one thing for a team that's using its primary catcher as a designated hitter three times every two weeks to carry a pair of backup catchers on a five-man bench.  It may be less than ideal, but it is at least comprehensible.  But there's really no way that a club with just four bench players can afford to carry two extra catchers for any length of time.  That's beyond dysfunctional.  If the O's choose to retain the 12-man staff, one of the catchers has to go when Sosa's activated.  The only way to avoid this would be to put someone on the disabled list--B.J. Surhoff, for instance, who hasn't appeared in a game since last Wednesday.  If Surhoff still isn't ready to go on Tuesday, after five consecutive days off, the team might disable him retroactively and continue with the four-man/two-backup catcher bench for awhile, but that's not a long-term solution.  The Orioles are going to have to choose between the extra catcher and the extra pitcher.

Bench considerations aside, when Sosa is plugged back into the lineup, the Orioles will have two short-term choices.  They can DH Sosa for awhile and leave Jay Gibbons (I can't believe I'm typing this) in right field while Sosa's eased back into the lineup or they can simply toss Sammy back into the outfield and move Gibbons to the DH spot.  Irrespective of what they do immediately, that's certainly where things are headed for the long haul.  Sosa's no Gold Glove right fielder but he's Roberto Clemente defensively compared to Gibbons.

The really major roster decisions will have to be made when Matos is ready to return and play center field again on an every day basis.  By that time, presumably, Sosa will have settled in at the right field spot and Gibbons will be DHing full time or perhaps getting the odd start at first in place of Rafael Palmeiro (more on Palmeiro in a moment).  The decision will revolve around the left field spot, and I suppose this is the appropriate point to bring up the matter of offensive contributions.

Sosa's picking it up a notch or two offensively would do wonders for the Orioles offense.  I'm not talking about a 2001-like performance (when Sosa bashed out an Offensive Winning Percentage of .838 over 160 games), but even something approaching 2003's .631 OWP would be a big boost for the Orioles.  It would give the team another bat that other clubs would have to fear, amidst Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora and the rest.

Matos simply needs to do what he was doing offensively before he was hurt, which was get on base at a .377 clip.

Gibbons appears to have vindicated the decision of the front office to grant him a mulligan for 2004 and shown the ability to perform at, or even somewhat above, the level of production he demonstrated in 2002 and 2003.  That is to say, Gibbons has found a nice niche as a complementary offensive player in a powerful offense.

Rafael Palmeiro, too, has demonstrated over the past couple of weeks that reports of the death of his bat were greatly exaggerated.  In an attempt to keep everyone from shoveling dirt on his carcass prematurely after a brutally poor start, Palmeiro has posted an OPS of 1.110 over the past week and has brought his mark for the season up to .726.  Things are heading in the right direction, apparently, but it's a bit more complicated than that.  Consider the following splits: .302/.403/.462; .094/.118/.125.  The former is Raffy's performance against right-handed pitchers this year, in 106 ABs.  The latter is his performance against left-handed pitchers in 32 ABs.  Against left-handed pitching thus far this season, Palmeiro is 3-32 with one double and one walk, and seven strikeouts.  He's fanned 10 times and walked 18 with five doubles and four home runs against right-handers.  This, ladies and gents, is no fluke.  Last year, in 391 ABs vs. right-handers, Palmeiro managed .286/.399/.491 marks.  Against lefties, he was a sickly .189/.254/.302 in 159 ABs.  Simply put, Raffy has become a platoon player.  There's no point denying it or hemming and hawing about it.  Palmeiro is still a hitter to be reckoned with against right-handers as the recent resurgence has shown, but against lefties you might as well let the pitcher hit.

The Orioles, fortunately, have a third option (if playing Raffy against lefties and letting the pitcher hit are options one and two), and it's an option they've used a few times this year--they can use right-handed swinging Chris Gomez against lefties.  Gomez really has been sensational in very limited action this year, posting .464/.571/.571 marks in 13 games (28 ABs).  Obviously he won't produce at this level if he's in a regular first base platoon, but Gomez was .300/.397/.380 against lefties last year.  Gomez doesn't have a long history of killing left-handed pitchers, but he seems to have made a substantial adjustment in that regard over the past couple of seasons--in addition to becoming significantly more patient at the plate.  It's a situation that the Orioles may as well take advantage of under the circumstances, and I both hope and expect to see them do just that.

Which brings us back to Matos' activation from the disabled list and its implication on the starting left fielder and, more broadly, the roster.  Since being recalled from Single-A Frederick at the height of the injury problems with Sosa and Matos, Jeff Fiorentino has performed admirably.  He hasn't just played well "considering that he'd been playing A-ball," he's played pretty well, period.  In the admittedly limited sample of nine games, Fiorentino has posted .313/.324/.469 numbers, with three extra base hits, including a home run, in 32 ABs.  This isn't Hall of Fame level of play, but it's not bad at all, and for a player just up from the Carolina League, it's extremely impressive.  Fiorentino has mostly played center field since being recalled and figures to remain there while Matos is out.

Meanwhile, Larry Bigbie--the man who replaced Matos in center until he strained a hamstring and missed a weak himself--has been holding down left field.  There's no point in sugarcoating it, Bigbie has been an offensive disaster thus far this season.  In 31 games--and 110 plate appearances--so far this year Bigbie has produced the following:  .248/.279/.324, with no home runs.  These are the kinds of numbers that often result in slick fielding infielders being benched; it's virtually uncharted territory for a left fielder.  What's particularly bizarre about Bigbie's performance this year is the marked reverse platoon he's displayed to this point.  In 74 ABs against right-handers, Bigbie is an almost unimaginably bad .203/.231/.284.  Against lefties, .355/.394/.419.  Obviously the batting average against lefties is a surprise, but it's worth noting that, really, the only difference between the splits is Bigbie's apparent ability to single off left-handers.  There's still no power and few walks.

As we've been saying pretty much all year, there's simply no way that the Orioles can continue to live with Bigbie's lack of production indefinitely.  As I see it, he's literally playing for his job right now.  If Matos really is ready to return in the next two to three weeks, that's about how long Bigbie has to get hot and demonstrate a compelling reason to continue putting him in the starting lineup, because once Matos and Sosa are back, one figures that Fiorentino will simply slide over to left field--he's been projected as a corner outfielder all along, though he seems to have played a perfectly adequate center field thus far--unless he's gone completely in the tank by then.

It's actually worse for Bigbie than simply facing the loss of his starting job--he may be facing the loss of his roster spot.  If Sosa's activation means that a position player currently on the 25-man roster may be facing the loss of a roster spot, Matos' activation definitely involves someone losing his place.  There will be no persuasive reason to keep three spare outfielders--Surhoff and David Newhan being the other two--on either a four- or five-man bench.  Surhoff is a veteran with occasional power who's shown the ability to come up with a big hit.  Newhan, while having problems of his own, has sported occasional power, is very fast, and is far more versatile than Bigbie in terms of the number of positions he can play.  If Bigbie isn't going to start, he may very well be the odd-man out given the alternatives, so he has a few weeks to play his way on or off the roster.  (Of course, another outfield injury in the interim would change this scenario.)

In fairness to Bibgie, I don't believe that he's "really" this bad.  He has shown the ability to hit big league pitching to some degree in the past.  My sense is that last year's performance is pretty indicative of what he can be expected of him in a typical season.  The problem is that this is a case of, as our Webmaster Bob Bryant likes to say, damning with faint praise because Bigbie was a slightly below average American League player, offensively, last year and that's not good enough for a left fielder.  Ironically, that level of play would almost certainly be enough to keep Bigbie's job this season, but since he's not even close to performing at that level right now, it's a moot point.

So, assuming that Sosa and Matos return on schedule, I would guess that we're going to be looking at a lineup something like the following by mid-June, if not sooner:

Roberts, 2b
Fiorentino, lf
Mora, 3b
Tejada, ss
Palmeiro, 1b
Sosa, rf
Lopez, c
Gibbons, dh
Matos, cf

Of course, against lefties, you can insert Gomez at first in the seventh spot, with Sosa and Lopez moving up to fifth and sixth, with relevant allowances being made for games when Lopez won't be catching.  It's also possible that Gibbons could flip flop with Lopez against right-handers, but those are quibbling details.

The bench, I would guess, would include Surhoff, Newhan, Gomez and either Geronimo Gil or Sal Fasano or both.  My guess is it will be one or the other long-term.  With a healthier club, there's less of a compelling reason to insist on Lopez DHing all the time when he's given a day off behind the plate and in all likelihood the team is going to find itself feeling the need for the extra pitcher.

Pitchers  No point in beating around the bush--I think the bullpen is pretty well set, with the exception of a long-term 12th addition.  At this moment, James Baldwin is that 12th guy, but I don't think he's going to be on the roster for the rest of the year.  (He may not even be on the roster by next week, but we'll see.)  The Orioles dropped their 12th man--Rick Bauer--a couple of weeks ago to go with an 11-man staff because they were having trouble finding work for seven relief pitchers.  The club's starters were routinely pitching at least six innings a game and the Orioles really couldn't find enough work to come close to satisfying six relievers let alone seven; Bauer's long-man partner, John Parrish, was almost as inactive as Bauer.  The question is whether that trend will continue.  In the past week, the Orioles have had two pitchers get knocked out in the first four innings and another last only five, so Baldwin was recalled following the series with Kansas City.  The question the Orioles have to answer is what's real--the long streak of well-pitched games, or the once or twice a week train wreck.

Regardless of the identity, or existence, of a 12th man, the rest of the pen is, I think, pretty well laid out and will continue to function thusly.  The Orioles would like some more consistency from lefty Steve Kline and right-hander Steve Reed, but I believe the roles are clearly identified:  B.J. Ryan as closer, Jorge Julio as the 8th inning set-up man, Kline and Reed as the lefty and right setup specialists respectively, Todd Williams as a kind of everyman (and primary fill-in for Julio's role when Jorge's unavailable) and Parrish as the long man.

The starting rotation is the more enigmatic part of the pitching staff, and I don't think that comes as much surprise to anyone.  

Erik Bedard has simply been marvelous.  His improvement in command since 2004 has been breathtaking.  He is this staff's "number one" starter.  

Bruce Chen seems to have really turned a corner, beginning last year.  He's continued to perform as he did in his impressive appearances last year, making the most out of an average fastball with a big curve, fine straight change, and the ability to locate all his pitches and change speeds.  It's a formula that has worked successfully for plenty of big leaguers without power games in the past and, again, the key is command.  Chen has been a more than solid contributor.

After that, things have been dicey.  Daniel Cabrera has shown more than "flashes" of brilliance; at times he's been brilliant for entire games.  Cabrera's stuff is the best of all the pitchers in this starting rotation, but he still struggles with his command as often as not.  I thought that his overpowering start against a good hitting Twins team on May 9, which followed a comparably dominating start at Toronto on May 3, might have signaled that Cabrera had crossed over the line into ascendancy for good.  I was wrong, as his last two starts--both subpar--have demonstrated.  Cabrera's stuff is beyond question, but he clearly still has command problems at times.  This is perfectly understandable.  We are, after all, talking about a soon to be 24-year-old pitcher with relatively little professional experience.  Remember, until he was recalled from Bowie last year, just five starts into the season, Cabrera had never appeared in a game above A-ball and had only 50 pro appearances to his credit.  He's come a long way in a very short time and--make no mistake about it--Cabrera really has answered some important questions that were left begging after last year.  The right-hander walked more batters than he struck out in 2004 and fanned just 4.6 batters per nine innings.  This year, while the walks remain too high (25 in 45.2 IP), Cabrera is fanning a man an inning.  Last year, many of us, myself included, questioned whether there was any way Cabrera could be effective with his peripheral numbers.  Cabrera has answered that doubt.  It's now a matter of consistency.  The question facing the Orioles this year is whether Cabrera will find that command consistency--to the point where a strong outing can reasonably be expected, if not always delivered--every time out.  That question remains unanswered at present, and it wouldn't be entirely shocking if we're still trying to draw a firm conclusion at year's end.  We'll see.

Rodrigo Lopez has, I think, been the biggest disappointment on this starting staff to date because "disappointment" is a function of presumably reasonable expectations unmet.  Lopez was regarded by many as the team's "ace" entering the season.  It hasn't worked out that way.  Lopez's problem has been (surprise) a matter of command.  Since throwing eight innings against Boston without allowing an earned run on April 21 Lopez has had only one truly effective start in five.  The difference, statistically, between this year and last year is an increase in walks and hits allowed.  Lopez's stuff isn't--and never has been--overwhelming.  The problem is--as it usually is--with placing the ball where the pitcher desires (i.e. a command problem).  Whether or not this is something mechanical--a release point issue perhaps--I don't know, but given the fact that Lopez's control over the past three seasons has been consistently solid (between 2.6 and 2.8 walks per nine innings each year) I'm reasonably optimistic that he can get to the bottom of it.  The Orioles chances of contending through the remainder of this season almost certainly depend on it.

The fifth member of the starting rotation is perhaps the most frustrating, but at this point one can't realistically expect any more out of Sidney Ponson than what he's delivering, with one exception.  Ponson has walked 23 in 54 innings, or 4.1 per nine innings.  A guy like Ponson, who almost always allows more hits than innings (65 in 54 IP this year) and strikes out a modest total (5.3/9IP this year, 5.5 for his career) simply can't afford to walk batters at that rate and, in fact, in his career Ponson has walked slightly fewer than three per nine innings and has never walked as many as 3.5 batters per nine innings in a season in his major league career.  Beyond that, however, Ponson's right on most of his career averages.  We're now in Season VIII for Sidney and I think most of us are past even hoping that he's ever going to be that front of the end starter the Orioles thought they were getting when he was re-signed as a free agent prior to the start of the 2004 season.  At this point, it's wise to simply accept that Ponson is a fifth starter type and leave it at that.  Anything better, in the unlikely event it should come up, would be gravy.

I suspect that the front office is trying to decide, at this point, whether dealing for another starter is necessary.  The jury's still out, in my view.  I presume that the next four weeks will determine whether the club tries to pull the trigger on a deal for a reliable starter or not.  If the Birds remain in contention but don't receive a steadying performance from Cabrera and/or an upgrade from Lopez, I would expect the front office to pursue a deal.  Otherwise--major injuries notwithstanding--I expect the Orioles to more or less stand pat.

Stay tuned.

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