JAY GIBBONS

Jay Gibbons was arguably the best offensive player the Orioles had last year.  He led the team in OPS (On Base + Slugging), and Offensive Winning Percentage among qualifiers (502+ plate appearances).  Coming off a bad wrist injury, if he didn't dramatically improve on his 2001 percentages, he didn't regress either.  For a team like the Orioles, this sort of thing is cause for rejoicing.

But hang on...joy in Mudville is of the graduated variety.  Receiving the title of "best offensive Oriole" is something of a backhanded compliment these days.  Gibbons showed increased power, and he didn't strike out very much but, unfortunately, the offensive positives pretty much end there.  On the negative side of the ledger, we have the relatively poor batting average (.247--the league hit .264) and, more worrisome, real shortcomings in the on-base department (.311 OBP--the league average was .331).  To complete the triple crown of downsides, Gibbons showed a substantial platoon differential and was truly  bad (.235/.272/.378 in 95 ABs) against southpaws.

Unlike many Orioles who went completely into the tank in the second half of the season, Gibbons showed only one significant difference before and after the All-Star break--bases on balls.  While he drew 31 walks over 263 first half at bats, the second half total dropped to a worrisome 14 over 227 ABs.  The batting average and slugging percentage numbers scarcely changed.

Defensively, Gibbons spent his time at the corner outfield spots, first base and DH.  He proved to be adequate in the outfield, which is better than many anticipated.

Gibbons appears to be the one player currently (early December) on the 40-man roster with a truly high offensive ceiling.  For all the talk, it's worth remembering that the lefty swinger has fewer than 800 big league plate appearances under his belt.  There's a sense that he's just a couple of adjustments (greater patience and improved production versus lefty hurlers) away from being a legitimately good hitter--the kind capable of, say, posting a .900 OPS.  Whether those adjustments are in the offing in 2003 remains to be seen.

TO SUCCESSFULLY CONTRIBUTE NEXT SEASON HE MUST:

1) develop better patience at the plate; Gibbons doesn't strike out much, but he's a notorious first pitch swinger (more below) and he's never going to have a chance to be very good hitter unless he (at least) doubles his walk rate

2) learn to be productive vs. lefties; Gibbons was a platoon player in 2002, pure and simple; Gibbons should be playing every day in 2003

3) crank the power production up another notch; 58 extra base hits in 541 plate appearances isn't bad, but it's nothing to jump up and down about; a 15-20% increase in extra base hit production would take him to the next level

Notes: had two putrid months:  May (.200/.286/.353) and August (.165/.224/.330)...hammered the ball in April (.304/.373/.584) and July (.314/.364/.686)...hit for far greater power at home (34 extra base hits, .540 SLG in 237 ABs) than on the road (24 extra base hits, .427 SLG in 253 ABs) on the road...most productive by a mile when putting the first pitch into play (.410 BA, .838 SLG, 12 HRs in 105 ABs)...hit no higher than .286 with any other count...slugged .520 (20 HR, 298 ABs) with the bases empty; .422 (8 HR, 192 ABs) with runners on base.

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