1999 was Tony DeMacio's first draft as the Orioles' director of scouting and it appeared, at first blush, to be a truly outstanding opportunity for the Orioles to establish a strong foundation in the effort to rebuild the franchise's moribund minor league apparatus.  As a function of significant free agent losses at the conclusion of the 1998 season, Baltimore found itself with a total of seven first round (including supplemental) draft picks.  The Birds would have seven of the draft's first 50 picks.  It was, apparently, a golden opportunity.  If the Orioles chose wisely, the conventional thinking suggested, they could have the bedrock of a successful, home grown team, that would be close to full flower in three or four years.

But was the "conventional thinking" realistic?

If we have learned nothing else after perusing the contents of the now hopelessly lengthy series of pieces on the amateur draft posted on this Web site over the past 3 1/2 years it's that building through the draft is, if not a crapshoot, very much a hit-or-miss proposition.  We have also conclusively learned, quite recently, that the notion that "a first round pick is a first round pick" is false.  These are things to keep very much in mind as the remainder of this series on the Orioles' recent draft history unfolds; it should be considered particularly as we assess the "gilded opportunity" represented by the 1999 draft.

The 1999 Orioles Draft

Without further adieu, this is the most complete listing I've been able to assemble of the Baltimore Orioles' 1999 draft:

1999 Baltimore Orioles Amateur Draft

(Note:  The Orioles didn't have picks in the 2nd, 4th or 5th rounds of the 1999 draft.)

In summary:  to date, four players drafted by the Orioles in 1999 have reached the big leagues and a few more likely will before it's all said and done.  Thus far, all four of the players who have reached the bigs have achieved some level of significance and it's a realistic--though not particularly likely--possibility that all four (Brian Roberts, Erik Bedard, Larry Bigbie and Willie Harris) will ultimately be considered "regulars" in the player typology laid out in Part I of this series.

Four "regulars" (and, admittedly, it's possible that, in the end, none of the four will achieve that status, but let's play along for the moment) in one draft is a fine haul--it would be one of the best Orioles' drafts ever.  But would it be fair to consider this a successful draft, given that the Orioles did have a lot of fairly high picks and given the specifics that led to the drafting of these players?  We'll attempt to answer that question when we conclude this installment.

The First Round
For reasons expressed in the first installment of this series, the central focus of each draft analysis will be on the first round.  Before we take a close look at each of the Orioles' first round selections, it will be instructive, for reference purposes, to take a look at the entire first round.

1999 MLB Amateur Draft, First Round

The status of each player is shown through the end of the 2003 season; a number of the players shown as having no major league experience have in fact made their big league debuts in 2004 (Jay Gehrke (32nd), Casey Daigle (31st), Alex Rios (19th)).  But the most promising--and thus far most successful-of the first round players are, in no particular order:  Barry Zito (9th choice), Ben Sheets (10th), Josh Beckett (2nd), and Bret Myers (12th).  Among the others who have moved into "regular" roles are Brian Roberts (50th choice), Eric Munson (3rd) and Jason Jennings (16th).   Jimmy Gobble (43rd), Casey Fossum (48th), Mike MacDougal (25th), Kurt Ainsworth (24th), Keith Ginter (22nd), Colby Lewis (38th) and Jerome Williams (39th) have all now seen extensive service time over several years, with uneven results occasionally influenced by injury (MacDougal, Ainsworth).

Orioles First Round
The first selection for the Orioles in the 1999 draft was Mike Paradis, a right-handed pitcher drafted 13th out of Clemson.  

There's no way to sugarcoat it; Paradis was a complete bust.  If you look over his professional record--or, for that matter, his college record--it's almost impossible to understand why he was rated so highly in the first place.  The Orioles finally gave up on Paradis this year, cutting him loose after parts of six pro seasons during which, quite frankly, he never displayed a performance worthy of promotion.  What's more, Paradis was essentially healthy throughout his career in the Orioles organization.  He was just...bad.

It's worth keeping in mind, however, that #13 choices frequently go down in a burst of flames.  Recall the analysis presented in the addendum to Part I of this series:  through 2002, more than half the #13 choices in the history of the amateur draft had failed to reach the big leagues.  While that number will likely drop slightly, the record shows that only 20-25% of #13 selections reach "regular" or "star" status.  The vast, vast majority of these choices turn out to be something other than productive major league players.  (To date, there has been only one true "star" player chosen with the 13th choice--Manny Ramirez.)

So, while Paradis has been a particularly grand example of a draft bust (nearly 600 minor league innings and never a serious consideration of being promoted to the big leagues), the odds of obtaining a productive player with the 13th choice are poor to begin with.  What makes the selection of Paradis particularly hard to stomach, however, is that there doesn't appear to have been any particularly good reason to assume that he was ever going to be much at the pro level, based on an evaluation of his amateur record.

The second first round choice for the Birds was Richard Stahl, a high school left-hander, selected with the 18th pick.  Stahl didn't sign with the Orioles until late August of 1999, so he didn't make a professional appearance until 2000.  In five pro seasons, Stahl has yet to throw 100 innings in a single year and has compiled only 300-odd innings in total due to a myriad of injuries.  He has never pitched above the A-ball level and concluded the 2004 campaign with a 4.96 ERA and almost as many walks (50) as strikeouts (56) in 81.2 innings at Frederick.  Stahl is still relatively young (24), but given his lack of progress and inability to remain healthy, a best case scenario is that he's several years away from being a big league pitcher.  That's a best case scenario.  A more realistic assessment would be that he's highly unlikely ever to be a meaningful big league pitcher, if he reaches the majors at all.

Once again, however, we have to look at the history of the pick--the 18th--before drawing any final conclusions.  Roughly half of #18 picks can be expected to end their careers without getting a taste of the big leagues and no more than 15-20% can be expected to become major league players of consequence.  There has never been a "star" player selected with the 18th choice in the draft; the best #18 selection was probably Willie Wilson or Carlos May.

The third of the Orioles' first round picks in 1999 was Larry Bigbie (21st), a Ball State outfielder, who we've already discussed briefly.  Bigbie has been one of the success stories of this draft, having now spent the second half of last season and all of this year on the Orioles' 25-man roster and has been a starter in the outfield during most of that time.  At this point, Bigbie has established himself as a decent--though by no means exceptional--platoon player, but has struggled far too much against left-handed pitching to be regarded as an adequate starting outfielder at the major league level.

Bigbie's biggest overall shortcoming has been a lack of power.  He has (to date) only 30 extra base hits in roughly 450 plate appearances this season, and that simply isn't sufficient.  Bigbie's slugging percentage (again, to date) is .415, which simply won't cut it for a corner outfielder who isn't an on-base fiend (he isn't).

Bigbie may be given another season to hold down a spot in the outfield, given his superficially decent performance (his numbers don't immediately jump out as awful--his batting average is propping things up to a degree; things only look undeniably lousy for him when his stats are placed in context with others at his position), but he's looking more and more like an extra outfielder as time goes by (Bigbie turns 27 in November).  He still has a shot at having a career as a starting outfielder, but his window of opportunity is closing rapidly and barring enough of an uptick next season (be it for the Orioles or someone else), he's probably destined to a career as a spare part.

Interestingly, 21st picks have fared marginally better over the years than 18th picks.  Roughly 20% of #21 selections turn into productive big league players; better than 60% reach the majors at some point.  Bigbie probably specs out as an average, or modestly better than average, #21 choice, historically speaking.  If he ends up taking a big step up and becoming a true starting caliber player, he will be a far better than average player.  Only six 21st picks (of 34) have managed to reach "regular" status; none have become stars.  (The best of the 21's are probably Rick Sutcliffe and Gorman Thomas.)

Keith Reed, an outfielder at Providence, was the fourth Orioles first round choice, selected with the 23rd pick.  Reed hasn't been quite the unequivocal bust that Mike Paradis is, but no one could accurately describe him as a draft success.  Reed, who turns 26 in early October, has completed his sixth pro season with exactly 20 games above the AA level and nary a whiff of the big leagues.  He was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft after last season and went unclaimed.

Reed has shown spotty power (his career minor league slugging percentage is .409), and consistently poor plate discipline over his pro career.  He is coming off his best full minor league season (.813 OPS in 121 games at AA Bowie in 2004), but given his age and experience, his performance at the AA level (.295/.345/.468) isn't particularly impressive.

I would guess that Reed will, at some point, make an appearance at the big league level, but I wouldn't expect him to even reach the level of big league journeyman.  The chances of him ever being classified as a "regular" (in the typology laid out in Part I of this series) are almost non-existent.

Roughly half of the 23rd picks in the first round never make the big leagues; 20% of them have achieved regular/star status.  The best 23rd picks, by far, are Mo Vaughn and Jason Kendall.

With their fifth first round choice (#34, a supplemental pick), the Orioles selected Josh Cenate, a left-handed high school pitcher.  Cenate was never able to stay healthy; after pitching for Bluefield in 1999 he suffered a torn labrum and didn't pitch at all in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003...and finally, gave up the ghost and hung up his spikes.  Injuries or not, Cenate's inability to ever progress beyond A-ball before retiring makes him a complete bust.

There have only been twelve 34th picks as part of the first round; none of the eight drafted between 1990 and 1998 (i.e. drafts before Cenate was chosen) have risen to the level of "regular."  To date, no one drafted 34th since 1999 has reached the big leagues.  As mentioned in the addendum to Part I of this series, the overall record for supplemental picks as a whole is extremely poor, with fewer than 10% becoming "regulars" to date and no supplemental picks achieving "star" status.

First round pick number six for the Orioles in 1999 was Scott Rice, a right-handed high school pitcher selected with the 44th choice.  Rice's career got off to a rocky start.  His first three pro seasons were spent at Rookie ball; he was 21 before he spent time with a team (Delmarva) in a full-season league.  After four mediocre seasons, Rice finally progressed in 2003, a season he split between Delmarva and Frederick.  After dominating the South Atlantic league for half a season, Rice was promoted to high-A Frederick, where he held his own.  He spent the entire 2004 season at AA Bowie where he appeared to pitch pretty effectively (3.66 ERA in 96 innings--Rice has never thrown as many as 100 innings in a pro season--10 starts, 36 relief appearances).  But a closer look provides a number of worrisome signs.  He walked nearly four batters per nine innings while fanning only 5.7.  Rice wasn't awful, but he wasn't particularly good either, and his performance doesn't suggest that he's ready to move up to a higher level.  

Rice is still relatively young (he doesn't turn 23 until September 21), and has shown enough to warrant further look, but his profile at this point isn't particularly encouraging.  His progression has been sluggish and a look at his peripheral stats indicates that he's really only had one truly effective stint as a professional (his half season at Delmarva last year).  He's still walking too many batters--and not striking out enough--to indicate a profile for future big league success.  

Rice may yet become a factor at the big league level--at least he's still pitching, and at the AA level; he's also still fairly young--but the odds are against him reaching regular (or better) status.

Only three other players have been first round choices with a 44th pick.  Two of these players have never pitching in the big leagues; the other has had a mere cup of coffee.

In a bit of typical irony, the seventh and final first round choice for the Orioles in 1999 has turned out to be the best.  Brian Roberts--an infielder from the University of South Carolina--has, at this point, placed himself in firm position to ultimately reach the status of major league regular with another few seasons as a starting second baseman.

Roberts--while certainly no star--has reached the point where he has become a better than average major league starting second baseman.  Part of this is because of the sorry state of the position in the big leagues at this point.  It's also interesting to see that Roberts has performed better this year with the Orioles than his minor league play ever would have led one to believe.  Roberts was having his best minor league season, by far, with Ottawa in 2003 (.315/.401/.399 in 44 games) when he was recalled by the Orioles in May.  Roberts has been with the big club ever since.

In a sense, Brian Roberts was the beneficiary of a weak farm system, one particularly lacking in position player prospects.  There was little in Roberts' performance through most of his minor league career that would have led one to assume that he would be a player of significance at the big league level; he showed no power, and only decent on-base ability and was moved from shortstop to second due to "insufficient arm strength."  I think it's fair to say that, based on his performance, Roberts would have been buried in a deep farm system.  He almost certainly wouldn't have advanced as quickly through as he did through the Orioles system with any other franchise in baseball.

Roberts also benefited from the inability of incumbent second baseman Jerry Hairston--in a sense, almost a clone of Roberts in terms of baseball strengths and weaknesses--to stay healthy.  Were Hairston not repeatedly injured, it's unlikely that Roberts ever would have even been recalled to the major leagues.

To Roberts' credit, he's made the most of his opportunity and, surprisingly, has raised his level of play at baseball's highest level.  Roberts will almost certainly turn out to be the most productive player selected by the Orioles in the first round of the 1999 draft.

There has only been one other player chosen with a 50th pick in the first round and, interestingly, he's a quasi-regular himself:  Matthew LeCroy of the Minnesota Twins.

Players of Note from Later Rounds
The big name here is clearly the sixth round choice, Erik Bedard, taken with the 187th selection.  After years of tantalizing, but injury-plagued minor league play, Bedard made the Orioles' rotation out of spring training this year and, all things considered, acquitted himself remarkably well.  Flashing unquestioned big league stuff, Bedard was plagued by command and control issues, but showed obvious strength, fanning better than eight men per nine innings.  There's no doubt that Bedard needs to cut down on the walks, and the number of pitches thrown per batter faced (take care of one and you've gone a long way toward taking care of the other), but he has already thrown more innings this year than in any previous pro campaign.  (Bedard hadn't thrown as many as 70 innings in a season since 2001, due to injury.)  Bedard has a legitimate shot at becoming a "regular" at the big league level over time, which would be a huge coup--only about 3% of players chosen in the sixth round go on to regular-or-better status.  The best sixth rounders, historically, have been Jose Vidro, Troy Percival and Tim Hudson.  There has never been a Hall of Famer selected in the sixth round.

The next best player chosen by the Orioles in 1999 is Willie Harris, selected in the 24th round with the 727th choice.  Harris could still reach "regular" status, though he's probably closer to being in Bigbie territory (that is to say, probably headed for a career as a journeyman).  Still, Harris has been a wildly successful player as a 24th round choice, having already appeared in parts of four seasons, with several extended stints as a starting player and this year has shown enough ability to get on base to have an outside shot to make it as a starter.  As of the end of the 2002 season, only 29 players (including Harris) had ever reached the major leagues as a 24th round selection.  Only seven 24th round choices reached regular or better status; one (Jorge Posada) achieved the "star" designation.  By simply reaching the big leagues, Harris is already in the 97th percentile of 24th round picks.

No one else selected by the Orioles in 1999 has reached the big leagues.  Third round choice Jon Kessick, a catcher, flamed out without ever playing above A-ball and is no longer playing baseball.  A few other Orioles choices, in addition to the ones mentioned above (e.g. Reed, Rice, etc.) have a shot at reaching the big leagues, but it's highly, highly unlikely that any will ever achieve "regular" status.  The players with the best chance are: 17th round selection Shaun Babula, a pitcher who spent this year with the Houston Astros' AAA affiliate in New Orleans; infielder Mitch Jones--a 25th round choice who didn't sign with the Orioles after being drafted out of Arizona State, eventually hooked up with the Yankees and has spent the past couple of seasons hitting for power (but little else) with New York's AA club in Trenton; and pitcher Rodney Ormond, the 27th round choice, who made it all the way to Ottawa this past year.  All of these players have a shot to make it to the show at some point, but that's about it.

1999 Draft Assessment
I've found myself ambivalent when attempting to draw firm conclusions on the Orioles' 1999 draft.  I initially regarded it as a firmly blown opportunity, but that was before I had demonstrated to myself that while the Orioles had "a lot of first round picks" in 1999 that those choices--given where they were situated in the first round--weren't particularly good ones.  Take a look at the chart outlining the first round of the draft and glance at the names of the players selected after the Orioles chose Mike Paradis with the 13th pick.  More than five years later, there's no one on that list that represents a clearly blown Baltimore draft opportunity.

What's more, a quick summing up would allow one to conclude that, overall, the Orioles' 1999 draft may well end up being regarded in the end as quite effective.  Time will tell, but Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard are looking like pretty decent bets to end up as "regular" players, with Larry Bigbie and Willie Harris having outside chances of falling into the same category.  Two "regulars" in the same draft is a pretty good haul.  Three or four would be phenomenal.

But just as I'm prepared to, more or less, let Tony DeMacio off the hook, crediting him with doing as well as could be expected, I take a closer look.  Some loose number crunching based on the Orioles' seven first round selections suggests that expecting two regulars to emerge from this mass of picks isn't much of a stretch.  Even conceding Brian Roberts as falling into the "regular" category, the only real chance the Orioles will get two "regulars" out of their first round choices is if Larry Bigbie picks it up a notch, and immediately.  And that would be, basically, just a decent haul.  It's also worth remembering that the only player in the group that is truly likely to meet that criteria is Roberts, the last of the seven to be selected...and, as mentioned above, Roberts is really looking like a very fluky success story, one that's hard to credit to the acumen of the scouting director.

Certainly bad luck (read injuries) has had something to do with some of the players who have flamed out (or are likely to do so)--specifically Josh Cenate and Richard Stahl.  But this is part of the deal that all teams have to live with...and one can be forgiven for speculating on the wisdom of selecting high school pitchers with first round picks.  But other selections are just head scratchers.  Mike Paradis will forever fall into that category; his selection brings back memories of Alvie Shepherd, another college pitcher who had a mediocre scholastic career who became a first round pick for the Orioles but never came close to reaching the big leagues.  Why was Paradis rated so highly to begin with?  Keith Reed reeks of being a "tools selection," someone who looked good in the trainer's room and came out of an essentially undistinguished college program (Providence College).

Regardless, the bottom line is there's an excellent chance that none of the Orioles' first six picks will ever develop into productive big league players.  Two are already out of baseball (Cenate and Paradis); a third has never pitched above A-ball (Stahl).  Two others (Reed and Rice) spent 2004 in AA and are unlikely to be even given a shot at a regular major league slot any time soon, if ever.  The final member of the sextet (Bigbie) is being given that chance, but thus far has come up short.  The seventh (and final) first round choice (Roberts, selected 50th overall) seems to have developed into a likely regular almost entirely by accident and as a result of his own determination to squeeze as much as he can out of his diminutive physique rather than as a function of any brilliance on the part of the scouting director.  

But what of Erik Bedard and Willie Harris?  Aren't these major coups for the Orioles, snagging players of this caliber in the sixth and 24th rounds respectively?  In my view, if anyone deserves credit for these choices it's whichever obscure scouts pestered the Orioles into choosing these players at all.  The scouting director (and his immediate subordinates) can hardly be given credit for having chosen Bedard with the 187th pick of the draft.  If they were so sharp in assessing Bedard's potential, why did they select eight players in front of him?  And Harris?  The 727th pick?  Dumb luck.  As I mentioned in an earlier installment in this series, a tiny, tiny percentage of players selected after the first round of the draft become players of significance at the big league level.  Regular or better players selected in the sixth round, or the 24th round (for instance), are basically flukes.  If there's credit to be distributed for these rare success stories, they go to the players themselves and/or members of the organization's coaching staff who helped squeeze more out of these unusual individuals than anyone thought possible...but not to the scouting director.

And so, overall, in evaluating DeMacio's performance in the 1999 draft, I would have to describe it as mediocre at best.  The lower round picks who appear to be "working out" can't be used to boost the scouting director's capability and one less Jerry Hairston injury and the Orioles would have virtually nothing to show from their first round choices. That's not a successful appraisal, by any stretch of the imagination.

Next:  Part II:  The 2000 Draft - Going Nowhere Fast

DeMacio & The Draft:  Part I - Addendum: Breaking Down the First Round
DeMacio & The Draft:  Part I - Why the Top Rounds of the Draft Are the Key

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