Kerry's Calculus

If an analysis of the 1999 Orioles draft could be summed up as "ambivalent," no comparable adjective will likely ever be used to assess the 2000 experience. At this point, roughly four and-a-half years later, it looks a whole lot more like an utter disaster. To date, not one player selected by the Orioles in 2000 has reached the big leagues and while it is highly likely that at least a few players will, it's relatively likely that no one drafted and signed by the club that year will ever be a player of significance at the big league level.

The only mitigating factors in assessing the Orioles' fortunes for 2000 are: 1) the draft, as a whole, appears to have been quite shallow; and 2) the Orioles only had two first round picks--the 14th overall and a supplemental pick (#32) and no second round choice. As we know from earlier installments of this series, the 14th slot isn't historically very productive and supplemental picks are rarely of value when it's all said and done.

Round	Overall	Player Name	Pos	College/High School	Highest Level	MLB Years	2004
1	14	Beau Hale	P	University of Texas at Austin	AA		DNP
1	32	Tripper Johnson	3B	Newport (Bellevue,WA) - HS	A		High A (Vero Beach - LA)
3	84	Richard Bartlett	P	Kamiakin (Kennewick,WA) - HS	A		High A
3	86	Tommy Arko	C	Cooper (Abilene,TX) - HS	A		High A
4	114	Jon Skaggs	P	Rice University	A		High A (Tampa - NYA)
5	144	Doug Gredvig	1B	Sacramento City College	AA		High A
6	174	Larry Spillers	P	Tattnall Square Academy (Roberta,GA) - HS	A		Low A
7	204	Brandon Littleton	OF	Lamar University	AAA		High A
8	234	Jayme Sperring		Rice University	A		DNP
9	264	Mike Russell	C	Bothell (Bothell,WA) - HS	A		Low A
10	294	Casey Cahill	P	Immaculata (Somerville,NJ) - HS	A		Low A
11	324	Darren Heal		Oklahoma State University	College		DNP
12	354	Kris Wilken	3B	University of Houston	AA		AA
13	384	Ryan Keefer	P	Southern Columbia Area (Catawissa,PA) - HS	A		High A
14	414	Brian Forystek	P	Illinois State University	AAA		AAA
15	444	Thomas Joyce	OF	First Presbyterian (Macon,GA) - HS	A		DNP
16	474	Sidney Jones	P	University of Texas at Austin	Ind		DNP
17	504	Joel Crump	P	Yuma (Yuma,AZ) - HS	Rookie		DNP
18	534	Kyle Sleeth	P	Northglenn (Northglenn,CO) - HS	AA		AA (Erie - DET)
19	564	Shayne Ridley	SS	Ball State University	A		DNP
20	594	Ryan Mask	P	Garces Memorial (Bakersfield,CA) - HS	A		DNP
21	624	Fraser Dizard	P	Meadowdale (Lynnwood,WA) - HS	A		High A (Winston-Salem - CHA)
22	654	Aaron Bouie	P	St. Bonaventure University	A		DNP
23	684	Eric Walsh	P	El Toro (El Toro,CA) - HS	A		DNP
24	714	Jose Rodriguez	IF	Iowa Western Community College	AAA		DNP
25	744	Jeff Petersen	P	Kentwood (Kent,WA) - HS	A		High A (San Jose - SF)
26	774	Dan Marchetti	P	Ohio Wesleyan University	Ind		DNP
27	804	Scott Koffman	P	Olympus (Salt Lake City) - HS	Rookie		DNP
28	834	Robert Cheatwood	P	Allan Hancock College	A		DNP
29	864	David Morrow	P	Sherman (TX) - HS	A		DNP
30	894	Donald Poles	P	Harding University	Rookie		DNP
31	924	Andrew Hargrove	1B	St. Ignatius (Berea,OH) - HS	A		DNP
32	954	Brandon Fahey	SS-3B	Grayson County Junior College	A		AA
33	984	Kurt BIrkins	RF	Los Angeles Pierce College	A		High A
34	1014	Joshua Banks		Severna Park (Arnold,MD) - HS	College		DNP
35	1044	Jeff Salazar	OF	Connors State College	AA		AA (Tulsa - COL)
36	1074	Tim Stauffer	P	Central Catholic (Saratoga Springs,NY) - HS	AAA		AAA (Portland - SD)
37	1104	Ryan Newman	IF	Scottsdale Community College	A		High A (Lynchburg - PIT)
38	1134	Chaz Macklin	C	East St. Louis (East St. Louis,IL) - HS	A		DNP
39	1164	Matt Harter		Penns Valley Area (Centre Hall,PA) - HS	College		DNP
40	1194	Sean Patrick		John A. Logan College	College		DNP
41	1223	Justin Ruchti	C	San Jacinto College-North	A		Low A (Wisconsin - SEA)
42	1252	Eric Fagan		Taft Junior College	College		DNP

(Note: The Orioles didn't have a pick in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft and evidently chose not to select players after the 42nd round.)

Bleech. There's simply no other way to put it. No one's made the big leagues yet. The player with the best chance to make a big splash is probably Tim Stauffer, the team's 36th round selection. Stauffer didn't sign with the Orioles at all, went on to a fine career at the University of Richmond and was drafted by the San Diego Padres as the fourth overall selection in the 2003 draft. Stauffer has progressed rapidly and has an excellent chance to make his big league debut in 2005.

That's it. There's not another player chosen by the Orioles in the entire 2000 draft who I'd describe as being anything more than a long shot to be a contributor at the big league level, and there probably aren't more than a few players who are even likely to receive a cup of big league coffee.

Not a single player drafted by the Orioles above the 12th round was playing above A-ball in 2004.

The First Round
For reasons expressed in the first installment of this series, the central focus of each draft analysis will be on the first round. Before we take a close look at each of the Orioles' first round selections, it will be instructive, for reference purposes, to take a look at the entire first round.

Overall	Name	Position	Drafted By:	School	Highest Level	Yrs. In MLB
1	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	Florida Marlins	Eastlake (Chula Vista,CA)	A
2	Adam Johnson	P	Minnesota Twins	California State University, Fullerton	MLB	2001, 2003
3	Luis Montanez	IF	Chicago Cubs	Miami (FL Coral Park )	AA
4	Mike Stodolka	P	Kansas City Royals	Centennial (Corona,CA)	A
5	Justin Wayne	P	Montreal Expos	Stanford University	MLB	2002-2004
6	Rocco Baldelli	OF	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	Bishop Hendricken (Warwick,RI)	A	2003-2004
7	Matt Harrington	P	Colorado Rockies	Palmdale (Palmdale,CA)	Ind
8	Matthew Wheatland	P	Detroit Tigers	Rancho Bernardo (San Diego,CA)	A
9	Mark Phillips	P	San Diego Padres	Hanover (PA )	A
10	Joe Torres	P	Anaheim Angels	Gateway (Kissimmee, FL )	A
11	Dave Kryznel	OF	Milwaukee Brewers	Green Valley (Henderson,NV)	AA
12	Joe Borchard	OF	Chicago White Sox	Stanford University	MLB	2003-2004
13	Shaun Boyd	IF	St. Louis Cardinals	Vista (Vista,CA)	MLB	2004
14	Beau Hale	P	Baltimore Orioles	University of Texas at Austin	AA
15	Chase Utley	IF	Philadelphia Phillies	University of California, Los Angeles	A	2003-2004
16	Billy Traber	P	New York Mets	Loyola Marymount University	MLB	2003-2003
17	Ben Diggins	P	Los Angeles Dodgers	University of Arizona	MLB	2002-2003
18	Miguel Negron	OF	Toronto Blue Jays	Manuela Toro (Caguas, PR )	A
19	Sean Burnett	P	Pittsburgh Pirates	Wellington (Wellington,FL)	AAA	2004
20	Chris Bootcheck	P	Anaheim Angels	Auburn University	MLB	2003-2004
21	Boof Bonser	P	San Francisco Giants	Gibbs (St. Petersburg,FL)	AAA
22	Phil Dumatrait	P	Boston Red Sox	Bakersfield Junior College	A
23	David Espinosa	SS	Cincinnati Reds	Gulliver Prep (Miami,FL)	AA
24	Blake Williams	P	St. Louis Cardinals	Southwest Texas State University	A
25	Scott Heard	C	Texas Rangers	Rancho Bernardo (San Diego,CA)	AAA
26	Corey Smith	IF	Cleveland Indians	Piscataway (Piscataway,NJ)	AA
27	Robert Stiehl	C	Houston Astros	El Camino College	A
28	David Parrish	C	New York Yankees	University of Michigan	AAA
29	Adam Wainwright	P	Atlanta Braves	Glynn Academy (Brunswick,GA)	AAA
30	Scott Thorman	IF	Atlanta Braves	Preston (Cambridge, CT )	AAA
31	Aaron Heilman	P	Minnesota Twins	University of Notre Dame	MLB	2003-2004
32	Tripper Johnson	3B	Baltimore Orioles	Newport (Bellevue,WA)	A
33	Dustin McGowan	P	Toronto Blue Jays	Long County (Ludowici,GA)	AA
34	Dustin Moseley	P	Cincinnati Reds	Arkansas (Texarkana,AR)	AAA
35	Carlton Godwin	CF	Texas Rangers	University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill	Rookie
36	Bob Keppel	P	New York Mets	Desmet Jesuit (St. Louis)	AAA
37	Derek Thompson	P	Cleveland Indians	Land O'Lakes (Land O'Lakes,FL)	AA
38	Kelly Johnson	P	Atlanta Braves	Westwood (Austin,TX)	Ind
39	Chad Hawkins	P	Texas Rangers	Baylor University	A
40	Aaron Herr	IF	Atlanta Braves	Hempfield (Lancaster,PA)	AA

2000 is not likely to go down in the annals of draftdom as a bright shining example of success. Only 11 players drafted in the first round (including the supplemental picks) had reached the big leagues by the end of the 2004 season. The closest thing to an established player in the group is Rocco Baldelli, who has essentially become a starting outfielder for Tampa Bay. Chase Utley may be the starting second baseman for the Phillies in 2005, but it's awfully slim pickings if you want to search out budding or likely star candidates in this group, though there are several players who are regarded by their clubs as possible future contributors.

Orioles First Round
Unlike the 1999 draft which provided the Orioles seven first round selections (including supplemental picks), the Orioles had just two such choices in 2000.

Beau Hale, a right-handed starter out of the University of Texas, was supposed to be the stud signing of the draft for the Orioles. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way. Due to signing and usage issues, Hale didn't make his professional debut until 2001. He made five effective starts at High-A Frederick and then 12 relatively ineffective starts at AA Bowie before being shut down with arm problems. 24 more starts were made in the same two locations--and very poor results overall--in 2002, when Hale was diagnosed with a serious arm injury and hasn't pitched since. There's no reasonable expectation that he ever will again.

Tripper Johnson was the 32nd choice of the draft, the Orioles' supplemental first round pick. A high school third baseman from suburban Seattle, Johnson is still young (he won't turn 23 until April), but has progressed very slowly through the Orioles' system. His first two pro seasons were with Rookie League clubs and after a non-descript season at Delmarva in 2002 he spent the past two years at Frederick. In 2004, for the first time, he showed tantalizing signs of power, but his overall hitting ability and plate discipline were nothing out of the ordinary. Given the paucity of position player prospects in the Orioles' system at present, it's likely that he'll be given a chance to make the jump to AA Bowie in 2005 and his success, or lack thereof, will likely go a long way toward resolving whether he's a real big league prospect or not. Stacking the deck against him is the fact that he not only needs to adjust to a higher level of competition, he needs to raise his level of play. In other words, he needs to produce more effectively than he did at Frederick in a league with more experienced and talented players.

Players of Note from Later Rounds
There's very little to report in this category. Third round picks Richard Bartlett and Tommy Arko spent their 2004 seasons scuffling at High-A, in their fifth pro seasons. Arko, I believe, has been cut loose by the organization. Bartlett is now a member of the Dodgers' organization and just completed a decent season as a relief pitcher for at Vero Beach of the Florida State League. Bartlett may reach the big leagues in some capacity some day, but there's little in his performance profile thus far to suggest a significant role.

The next player who has moved up the latter to any degree is Kris Wilken, the team's 12th round pick. Wilken just completed a mediocre year at Bowie and is not in the team's plans.

Brian Forystek, the 14th round selection, split time between Bowie and Ottawa in 2004 and was equally ineffective at both places. It was a regressive season for Forystek who had performed pretty well at Bowie in 2003. Forystek turns 26 in late October and has fallen far down the Orioles' organizational pitching depth chart.

And that's about it. There are a few other players, in addition to Stauffer--late round selections that the Orioles never signed (Sleeth, Petersen, Salazar, etc.), went to college and were drafted by other clubs--who have a shot at the big leagues some day, but not many and none, outside of Stauffer, appear to be players of significance.

2000 Draft Assessment
2000 was a poor draft in which the Orioles fared particularly poorly. If this is starting to sound to you like something of a mantra as we try to assess the performance of the now dismissed Tony DeMacio in his six-year role as the franchise's scouting director, well, you're not the only one.

One of the hallmarks, it seems, of the Orioles and their draft performance is that circumstances appear to mitigate against any great likelihood of success...and that the Orioles consistently live down to expectations, rarely if ever exceeding them based on anything that could be attributed to those in a decision-making capacity. Every once in awhile, it seems, it's not unreasonable to make lemonade out of lemons. Someone with particular drafting acumen, one might reasonably surmise, might actually make that lemonade fairly frequently. In the case of the Orioles, there's not only no lemonade, there's a big barrel of spoiled fruit.

Consider the case of Beau Hale. It's not unreasonable to take the position that serious injuries to young pitchers happen and that the scouting director can't be blamed for such eventualities. There's certainly more than a kernel of truth in that statement.

But a look back to the previous year's draft shows more injured pitchers--Erik Bedard, Richard Stahl, Josh Cenate. A preview into the future will show yet more injured pitchers (Adam Loewen, Chris Smith). Is this just simple bad luck or is there a way of systematically predicting, with some authority, pitchers who are more or less likely to be injured? It seems to me that the creative, resourceful organization at least endeavors to find out if answers to these questions are forthcoming.