DeMacio & The Draft:  Part IV
The 2001 Draft:  Seeds of Success?
Kerry's Calculus for October 10, 2004

The 2000 Orioles draft was dreadful, as we pointed in the last installment of this series.  The Orioles headed into the 2001 edition of Major League Baseball's amateur draft with three of the first 31 picks, two of them legitimate first rounders (selections seven and 19) and one high supplemental choice (#31).  But, once again, the club found itself without a coveted top four choice.

How does the 2001 draft look 3 1/2 seasons later?

Not very good, unfortunately.  A certain assessment is still a few years away, but at present only one player selected by the Orioles in 2001 appears to have a solid chance to be a contributing player at the big league level.  Furthermore, unlike 2000, the 2001 draft looks like quite a deep one.  16 of the 44 first round choices (this includes supplemental selections, obviously), had reached the big leagues by the end of the 2004 season.  Seven others had reached the AAA level.

The 2001 Orioles Draft
Here's who the Orioles selected in June of 2001:

2001 Baltimore Orioles Amateur Draft

Round Overall Player Name Pos College/High School Highest Level 2004
1 7 Smith, Chris P Cumberland University (Tenn.) A Low A
1 19 Fontenot, Mike 2B Louisiana State University AAA AAA
1 31 Bass, Bryan SS Seminole (Seminole,FL) A Low A
3 83 Crouthers, David P Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville AA AA
4 113 Lewis, Rommie P Newport (Bellevue,WA) A High A
5 143 Johnson, James P Union-Endicott (NY) A High A
6 173 Whiteside, Eli C Delta State University AA AA
7 203 Coppinger, Joe P Seminole State College A Low A
8 233 Britton, Chris P Plantation (Plantation,FL) A Low A
9 263 Yount, Dustin 1B Chaparral (Scottsdale,AZ) A Low A
10 293 Cliffords, Woody OF Pepperdine University AA AA
11 323 Hardy, John   Centennial (Boise,ID) A Low A (Batavia, PHI)
12 353 Mincey, T.W. P The Citadel A DNP
13 383 Salazar, Richard P Miami-Dade College AA DNP
14 413 Keylor, Cory OF Ohio University A High A
15 443 Morris, Cory P Dallas Baptist University AA AA
16 473 Edwards, Brad   Indiana University Ind DNP
17 503 Tiller, James P Elysian Fields (TX) A High A
18 533 Caughey, Trevor P San Luis Obispo (San Luis Obispo,CA) A Low A
19 563 Thomas, Adam P Abilene Christian University Ind DNP
20 593 Perkins, Andrew   California State Polytechnic University, College DNP
21 623 Hahn, Donald 3B Galena (Reno,NV) - DNP
22 653 Larson, Adam P Mississippi State University - DNP
23 683 Potter, Joshua P Philipsburg (PA Osceola) A High A
24 713 Manley, Adam 1B Missouri Valley College A DNP
25 743 Hackett, Richard RF University of the Pacific - DNP
26 773 Burger, Brent P Paso Robles (Paso Robles,CA) - DNP
27 803 Richardson, Antoan CF American Heritage (Delray Beach,FL) - DNP
28 833 Dunavant, Adam P Prince George (Disputanta,VA) - DNP
29 863 Schmidt, Kyle p College   DNP
30 893 Mavroulis, Coby   Cooper (Abilene,TX) College DNP
31 923 Seibly, Evan P Moorpark (Moorpark,CA) - DNP
32 953 Mack, Lorenzo CF Larue County (Hodgenville,KY) - DNP
33 983 Hanna, Daniel C Eastern Arizona College - DNP
34 1013 Coles, Michael CF Hammond (IN) - DNP
35 1043 Wilkening, Joshua P Green River Community College - DNP
36 1073 Montani, Jeff P Binghamton University A High A
37 1103 Carter, Dwayne P East Bakersfield (Bakersfield,CA) - DNP
38 1133 Letsinger, Sean P Glen Oaks Community College - DNP
39 1163 Saunders, Jesse P Eastside Catholic (Bellevue,WA) - DNP
40 1193 Done, Robert 2B University of Washington A High A
41 1222 Blevins, Eric P Sullivan East (Bluff City,TN) - DNP
42 1251 Palm, Josh   Conneaut Lake (Conneaut,PA) College DNP
43 1279 Maxwell, Justin   Sherwood (Olney,MD) College DNP
44 1307 Brubaker, Douglas P Hill College Rookie DNP
45 1335 Woolard, Tabor P Antonian (San Antonio.) - DNP
46 1363 Fowler, Jonathon P Kirk Academy (Duckhill,MS) - DNP
47 1391 Cupps, Anthony   University Christian School (Madison,MS) College DNP
48 1418 Johnson, Bryan   Selah (Selah,WA) A High A (Danville, ATL)

(Note:  The Orioles didn't have a pick in the 2nd round of the 2001 draft and evidently chose not to select players after the 48th round.)

No one has made the big leagues from this draft, but that in and of itself isn't necessarily an indictment.  The problem is that there aren't many players who appear likely to ever receive a real shot at a significant big league job.  There will likely be a few other players drafted by the Orioles in 2001 who will reach the major leagues, but no one else on this list is currently displaying a career path that projects likely "regular" status at the big league level.  Mike Fontenot is the only player drafted by the Orioles in 2001 to move beyond AA and none of the other five players to reach the AA level have performed well enough there to warrant moving up.

The First Round
For reasons expressed in the first installment of this series, the central focus of each draft analysis will be on the first round.  Before we take a close look at each of the Orioles' first round selections, it will be instructive, for reference purposes, to take a look at the entire first round.

2001 MLB Amateur Draft, First Round

Overall Player Pos. Drafted By School High Lv MLB Years
1 Joe Mauer C Minnesota Twins Cretin-Derham Hall (St. Paul,MN) MLB 2004-2004
2 Mark Prior P Chicago Cubs USC MLB 2002-2004
3 Dewon Brazelton P Tampa Bay Devil Rays Middle Tennessee State University MLB 2002-2004
4 Gavin Floyd P Philadelphia Phillies Mt. St. Joseph (Severna Park,MD) MLB 2004-2004
5 Mark Teixeira 3B Texas Rangers Georgia Tech MLB 2003-2004
6 Josh Karp P Montreal Expos UCLA AAA  
7 Chris Smith P Baltimore Orioles Cumberland University (Tenn.) A  
8 John Van Benschoten P Pittsburgh Pirates Kent State University MLB 2004-2004
9 Colt Griffin P Kansas City Royals Marshall (Marshall,TX) AA  
10 Chris Burke IF Houston Astros University of Tennessee MLB 2004-2004
11 Kenny Baugh   Detroit Tigers Rice University AA  
12 Mike Jones P Milwaukee Brewers Thunderbird (Phoenix,AZ) AA  
13 Casey Kotchman IF Anaheim Angels Seminole Junior College MLB 2004-2004
14 Jake Gautreau IF San Diego Padres Tulane University AAA -
15 Gabe Gross OF Toronto Blue Jays Auburn University MLB 2004-2004
16 Kris Honel P Chicago White Sox Providence Catholic (New Lenox,IL) AA  
17 Daniel Denham P Cleveland Indians Deer Valley (Antioch,CA) AA  
18 Aaron Heilman P New York Mets University of Notre Dame MLB 2003-2004
19 Mike Fontenot 2B Baltimore Orioles Louisiana State University AAA  
20 Jeremy Sowers   Cincinnati Reds Ballard (Louisville,KY) College  
21 Brad Hennessey P San Francisco Giants Youngstown State University MLB 2004-2004
22 Jason Bulger P Arizona Diamondbacks Valdosta State University AA  
23 John-Ford Griffin OF New York Yankees Florida State University AA  
24 Macay Mcbride P Atlanta Braves Screven County (Sylvania,GA) AA  
25 Bobby Crosby IF Oakland Athletics Long Beach State University MLB 2003-2004
26 Jeremy Bonderman P Oakland Athletics Pasco (Pasco,WA) MLB 2003-2004
27 Alan Horne   Cleveland Indians Marianna (Marianna,FL) College  
28 Justin Pope P St. Louis Cardinals University of Central Florida AA  
29 Josh Burrus 3B Atlanta Braves   A  
30 Noah Lowry P San Francisco Giants Pepperdine University MLB 2004-2004
31 Bryan Bass SS Baltimore Orioles Seminole (Seminole,FL) A  
32 Mike Woods IF Detroit Tigers Southern University A  
33 Jeff Mathis C Anaheim Angels Marianna (Marianna,FL) AA  
34 Bronson Sardhinha IF New York Yankees Kamehameha (Honolulu,HI) AA  
35 J.D. Martin P Cleveland Indians Burroughs (Ridgecrest,CA) AAA  
36 Michael Garciaparra SS Seattle Mariners Don Bosco (La Habra Heights,CA) A  
37 John Rheinecker P Oakland Athletics Southwest Missouri State Universit AAA  
38 David Wright 3B New York Mets Hickory (Chesapeake,VA) MLB 2004-2004
39 Wyatt Allen P Chicago White Sox University of Tennessee AAA  
40 Richard Lewis IF Atlanta Braves Georgia Tech AAA  
41 Todd Linden OF San Francisco Giants Louisiana State University MLB 2003-2004
42 Jon Skaggs P New York Yankees Rice University A  
43 Mike Conroy OF Cleveland Indians Boston College (Dorchester,MA) A  
44 Jayson Nix IF Colorado Rockies Midland (Midland,TX) AA  

This is a pretty potent first round.  16 of the 44 players drafted have already made it to the big leagues and another seven have reached the AAA level and are poised to make their big league debuts.  Further, some players drafted in the 2001 first round are budding stars; Mark Prior, Joe Mauer, Mark Texeira, Dewon Brazleton, Bobby Crosby, David Wright...all these players have all either firmly established themselves as big league contributors or shown enough at the big league level to encourage fans of their clubs that they will do so presently.

Orioles First Round
The three first round picks that the Orioles had in 2001 stack up this way.

Chris Smith, the #7 selection overall, was drafted as a pitcher and, in fact, left Florida State to play NAIA baseball at Cumberland because he wanted to focus on pitching while FSU wanted him to play the field.  Smith has had a terrible time trying to stay healthy.  He pitched a total of 13.1 innings over four games at half-season Aberdeen last year after sitting out all of 2003 while recovering from arm problems.  In fact, since signing with the Orioles in 2001, Smith has pitched a grand total of 26.1 innings in 11 games over parts of four pro seasons (again, noting that he didn't play at all in 2003).  It's really hard to assess where Smith might go, but this track record of injury and inactivity make him a very long shot ever to amount to anything as a big leaguer.  Perhaps he'll rise like the proverbial phoenix, but in all likelihood this choice will prove to be a total washout, much like Josh Cenate in 1999.

Mike Fontenot (#19 overall) is the one "success story" to emerge from this draft for the Orioles.  After a breakthrough season at AA Bowie in 2003, Fontenot, a second baseman, followed up with a workmanlike full season at AAA Ottawa in 2004.  While the Orioles would undoubtedly like to see Fontenot raise every aspect (average, on-base, power) of his offensive game a notch, his 2004 performance wasn't so weak in any area to write him off.  In fact, a one-notch across the board improvement by Fontenot would make him a very attractive ballplayer.  Were it not for the fact that the Orioles already had an embarrassment of riches (okay, that's a gross exaggeration, but you get the idea) at second base in Brian Roberts and Jerry Hairston, Fontenot might well have been given a shot at the Orioles' second base spot entering the 2004 season and almost certainly would be being groomed as the club's second baseman of the near future.  Regardless, Fontenot will reach the big leagues and will very likely be given a chance to start somewhere.  Whether he succeeds as a "regular" at the big league level remains to be seen.

Bryan Bass, a middle infielder and supplemental choice selected with the 31st pick of the 2001 draft, has been a complete bust.  Still mired at Delmarva (low A) in his fourth pro season, Bass has yet to show that he's worthy of a promotion to high-A Frederick, to say nothing of any higher level of play.  Bass simply hasn't shown that he has a legitimate prospect's bat; he has yet to hit .240 in a full season league (he's had three tries), has minimal power and strikes out a ton.  It's unlikely that he'll ever reach the major leagues, let alone become a player of substance in the show.

Players of Note from Later Rounds
There's not much to get excited about here.  Third round pick Dave Crouthers had a less than overwhelming season in his first full crack at AA ball.  Crouthers was touched for 134 hits (including a worrisome 23 home runs) and 68 walks in just under 140 innings at Bowie in 2004, while sporting a 5.03 ERA.  He did fan 138 batters, however, so there may still be hope.  Unfortunately, Crouthers' performance grew steadily worse as the 2004 season moved along.  2005 is shaping up as the year whether Crouthers will continue to be regarded as a prospect worth following or not.  He has performed decently as a pro but has yet to have a single season that would cause the eyes to widen.

Eli Whiteside, a catcher and the club's sixth round selection, showed enough power at AA Bowie last season to indicate that he may have a big league career as a backup.  There's nothing to indicate that he's starting material.

Woody Cliffords, the sixth round choice, bombed so badly in a month-plus at Bowie that he was shipped back to Frederick where he performed decently but unremarkably.  His window of opportunity may be closed.

13th round choice, right-hander Richard Salazar, actually made it as high as Bowie in 2002 but was dropped from the organization after last season.

Pitcher Cory Morris, the 15th round selection, lasted a bit more than two months at Bowie and was miserable, so he was demoted to Frederick where he was beyond miserable.

No one else from the 2001 draft has made it to the AA-level as yet.

Rommie Lewis, the fourth round pick in 2001, just wrapped up a dreadful season at high-A Frederick.

James Johnson, the fifth round choice, pitched well enough at low-A Delmarva to merit a look at Frederick next season, but after signing with the Orioles in 2001 it took three years before Johnson spent any time at a full-season league.

Most of the remaining players selected by the Orioles in 2001 aren't presently members of the organization and the few that are--Joe Coppinger, Dustin Yount, Chris Britton, Cory Keylor, James Tiller, Trevor Caughey, Josh Potter, etc.--haven't shown much worth getting excited about.  None are likely to begin the 2005 season above A-ball and some may be sent packing.

2001 Draft Assessment
In a word, awful.  By any evaluation, this was almost certainly DeMacio and crew's worst draft to this point.  While the Orioles didn't have any great picks, they didn't make all that much out of what they did have.  At this point, about all they can point to from this draft is Fontenot, a guy who appears to have a chance to be a decent big league player--at the one position at which the Orioles don't need immediate organizational depth.  Smith is looking like another complete bust of a first choice (Mike Paradis and Beau Hale were DeMacio's first two top draft picks), as is Bass.  There's almost nothing worth keeping an eye on in succeeding rounds either (with the possible, vague exception of Crouthers).

It's one thing to wash out in a weak draft, but 2001, as I stated earlier, was hardly that.  11 players chosen in the first round after Smith was selected seventh have already reached the big leagues and several (Bobby Crosby, Jeremy Bonderman, David Wright) have made an impact at the big league level.

At some point, if you're to succeed in the role of scouting director, you have to exceed the "league average" in evaluating talent.  Through his first three years--based exclusively on work with the draft; we'll address the role of players not susceptible to the draft down the road, in evaluative remarks that will close this series of articles--I'd conclude that DeMacio's track record was below that of what could/should minimally be expected given league average results.  We'll see whether that assessment changes in the succeeding installments of this series which will examine the final three of DeMacio's six drafts.

Next:  Part III:  The 2002 Draft - Any Improvement?

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DeMacio & The Draft Part III - 2000:  Going Nowhere Fast
DeMacio & The Draft Part II - 1999:  A Golden Opportunity Missed?

DeMacio & The Draft:  Part I - Addendum: Breaking Down the First Round

DeMacio & The Draft:  Part I - Why the Top Rounds of the Draft Are the Key

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