In December of 1998, the Orioles hired Tony DeMacio, a generally well-regarded scout responsible for signing such luminaries as Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, while in the employ of the Atlanta Braves, as their scouting director.  DeMacio's principal task in his new job was to rebuild an emaciated farm system, and among his prime duties in that regard was to select players in Major League Baseball's Amateur Draft who would consistently turn into productive big league players--including star caliber performers.

DeMacio has now presided over six drafts and while the jury is still arguably out on the end result, enough time has gone by to begin drawing some meaningful conclusions as to whether he has succeeded or failed in his endeavor.

This article is the first of a series that will examine the productivity of these drafts in some detail.   The focus will largely--though not entirely--fall on the early rounds of each draft, particularly the first round.  In this introductory piece, an attempt will be made to justify the series spotlight on the draft's earliest round.

Why should we focus attention heavily on the first round of the draft rather than looking at all of the rounds?  In short, no one ever got "rich" by successfully drafting in the later rounds of baseball's amateur draft.  It's not that good--even great--players aren't occasionally found after the first round.

But the drop off after the first round--is tremendous.  Another drop off after roughly the fifth round is also in evidence.  Consider the following table:

(Data is complete through the end of the 2002 season; updating this information on a season-by-season basis is a difficult chore because one never knows when a player selected, say 10 years ago, will suddenly and unexpected make his major league debut.  For instance, this season, 1997 seventh round choice Bucky Jacobsen made his big league debut.  So did 1998 seventh rounder John Buck.  I just stumbled across these players; conducting a systematic updating is problematic, so for the sake of this analysis we'll settle for a 2002 cut off.  In the end, it almost certainly doesn't matter as there is no reason to assume that personnel moves over the past two seasons have dramatically changed across baseball...or that, in fact, they've changed in any substantive sense.)

Through the end of the 2002 season, there had been 38 drafts conducted.  "Sandwich picks" are regarded for the purposes of draft analysis as first round choices, so there have been more choices in the first round than any other.  (For instance, including sandwich picks, there were 51 first round choices made in 1999.)

Only 34 players drafted after the 50th round ever reached the big leagues (the draft was dropped to a 50-round proposition after 1996).  That might not seem surprising.  But through the 2002 season, only 325 second round picks, since the draft began in 1965, reached the big leagues while 582 first rounders did the same.  For third rounders, the number drops to 230.  199 Fourth rounders have made it, 188 fifth rounders, 149 sixth rounders, 125 seventh rounders, 94 eighth rounders, 100 9th rounders, 98 10th rounders and so forth.  

55-60% of first round picks, historically, will reach the big leagues.  That number drops to roughly 35% for second rounders, a bit more than a quarter of third rounders, approximately 20% of fourth rounders and so on.  By the time you reach round 10, the number is only about 10% and by round 15 it's perhaps 5%.  The 25th round has only about 3% of its choices reach the bigs.

But perhaps more interesting is the percentage who achieve "regular" status or above (i.e. star status).  

(Do keep in mind that the standard for being considered at least a regular is fairly high.  For instance, a position player who was a regular for, say, three years of his big league career and spent many additional years as a part-timer, or bounced back and forth between the majors and the minors for years won't be regarded as a "regular."  For instance, Billy Ripken spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues, but was a "regular" for only two or three of them; he doesn't make the cut.  Similarly, players who were deprived of being "regulars" for a long enough time by a career-altering injury won't be included either; Mark Fidrych, for example, falls into this category.)

While a bit more than 20% of first round choices develop into big league regulars (or better), that number drops to less than 10% for second round choices and only a bit more than 5% for third round selections.  Rounds 4-6 are in the neighborhood of 3%; 7-9 have a 2% rate.  After that, we're looking at rates in the range of 0.5 to 1.5% through Round 26.  From 27 on, we're looking at a return rate of less than 1/2 of 1%.

Hall of Fame (and caliber) players are, if anything, even more top-weighted.  Of the 38 drafted players so designated, 30 were chosen in the first four rounds of the draft.  (Mike Piazza is, by far, the lowest round HOF-caliber player ever drafted (Round 62--the draft doesn't even have that many rounds anymore).  Piazza is the ultimate outlier.  The next lowest round HOF-caliber player is Ryne Sandberg (Round 21)...and of course it remains to be seen if Sandberg will reach the Hall.  The lowest drafted player actually in the Hall of Fame is Nolan Ryan (Round 12).)

And so, throughout this series, we'll pay most of our attention to the higher rounds of the draft--understandably, I hope.

Next:  Part II:  The 1999 Draft -- A Golden Opportunity Missed?

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