Decision Time
What to Do In Light of the Matos Injury
Kerry's Calculus for May 11, 2005

This is why the front office folks get the big bucks.

On a day when it was announced that Sammy Sosa would be placed on the 15-day disabled list with an abscess on his foot, the Orioles brain trust probably wasn't expecting to have to deal with an even more serious injury problem.  That, however, is exactly what they face as a result of Luis Matos breaking the ring finger on his right hand during an unsuccessful bunt attempt in Tuesday night's bitter loss to the Minnesota Twins.

Now, just 32 games into the 2005 season, 10 games over .500, the Orioles find themselves staring down a serious crucible:  what to do in light of the Matos injury?

Sosa may be the bigger name, but it's obvious that the Orioles don't regard the need to disable Sosa as a particularly serious problem.  When Sosa's DL assignment was announced the club also informed the media that Keith Reed would take Sosa's spot on the roster.  Yes, Keith Reed, the Orioles' #1 selection in the 1999 draft.  The same Keith Reed who, entering this season, had appeared in exactly 20 professional games above the AA level and was exposed to the Rule 5 draft prior to the 2004 season but went unclaimed.  The same Keith Reed who had a career minor league OPS of .732 in 682 games entering 2005 and who has managed a desultory .762 OPS (a .282 OBP--one walk) in 25 games at Ottawa thus far this season.  Yes, that Keith Reed.

And yet...it didn't seem to matter very much.  Sosa really hadn't been hitting a whole lot and his disabling was made retroactive to May 5.  Assuming he recovers in any kind of timely fashion, he'll be back on the field in another 10 or 12 days.  The Reed move was, essentially, a case of bringing up a player who could at least handle right field defensively (something Reed ought to be able to do).  In the meantime, the position would probably be manned by some combination of David Newhan, B.J. Surhoff and Jay Gibbons (even if the latter has looked completely lost in the outfield in very limited duty this season).  It's not an ideal arrangement, but it probably was an adequate stopgap, given the limited nature of the need.

The Matos situation...well, that's an entirely different kettle of fish.

While much was made by some of the supposedly "inadequate" starting rotation in the weeks and months leading up to the start of this season, a careful analysis of the Orioles would lead the heady observer to note that the biggest worry facing the club this spring was a palpable lack of depth at certain everyday positions.  

This is not an indictment of the Orioles bench.  This may not be the best bench in the history of the franchise but it's far from the worst.  The Orioles actually have some serviceable players on the team's limited (i.e. four-man) bench this season and every single member of that reserve unit has contributed in a meaningful way at one time or another this season.

But there are a number of players on the Orioles roster who are irreplaceable if lost for any period of time.  There's no one on the bench who can adequately replace any meaningful disability to any of these players and there isn't anyone in the Orioles farm system capable, quite frankly, of replacing anyone in the major league lineup for any length of time.  Losing Miguel Tejada would be a disaster.  Ditto Melvin Mora and Javy Lopez.  And, yes, ditto Luis Matos.

Why Matos?  Well, for one thing, while Matos hasn't been one of the big offensive guns on this club, he's been a decent minor cog in the wheel.  Matos has not been an automatic out this year; he'd posted a more than solid .377 OBP at the time of his injury.  While one would hope for a bit more in the power department, Matos had given the Orioles an adequate performance with the bat this year.  

More importantly, however, Matos is the only player on the roster who has proven his ability to play an adequate defensive center field.  

David Newhan has played the position on a spot basis this year, but had never appeared in a big league game in center field prior to 2005.  Are the Orioles really prepared to roll the dice on turning the position over to him for the next six weeks (and, really, will anyone be surprised if it takes Luis longer than six weeks before he's ready to play again)?

Larry Bigbie played center field some last year, but was unimpressive and spent virtually his entire minor league career in a corner outfield spot.  If the organization thought he was a legitimate center fielder, he presumably would have been starting there in the minor leagues on the way up, where prospects are typically given a chance to maximize their defensive value.  In addition to the obvious questions about Bigbie's ability to handle the position defensively, the left-handed swinger is off to a dreadful start with the bat this year, posting a sickly .593 OPS through Tuesday's game.  With an otherwise healthy club, Bigbie's spot in the starting lineup was dubious; now, with the injuries, he'll almost certainly be in left field for the foreseeable future, but this is hardly the time to move him to a position he's probably not capable of playing.

There are no serious options within the team's minor league organization to fill the role either.  Tim Raines, Jr. is hitting below .200 at Ottawa.  The Orioles could, presumably, dip down to Bowie and promote Eugene Kingsale who is hitting in the .260 range and has played some center field at the big league level, but I can't imagine anyone is salivating at the thought of Kingsale in a major league starting lineup for any period of time (with the very likely exception of prospective opposition pitchers).

And so Orioles' front office must, presumably, be mulling over the possibility of going outside the organization to fill this gap.  The two most obvious available candidates, both of them legitimate--if less than entirely ideal--major league center fielders are Mike Cameron, who's currently being showcased in right field by the New York Mets and Preston Wilson of the Colorado Rockies.  Both are making a lot of money.  Cameron has, in the last week since being activated from the disabled list, pretty clearly shown that he's got something left in the tank.  Wilson isn't doing much despite playing his home games in Coors Field, but he's hit before and one might be able to convince oneself that he might hit again if he leaves the nightmare that is currently the Rockies organization for a first place club.  I, personally, would much rather have Cameron (he's carrying a smaller contract, for one thing, and I simply believe he's the better player; I think he always has been).  The question is what it would take to get these guys.  As usual, there would be no desire to give up the farm, if you'll pardon the pun, for either of them, but these aren't ancient, last gasp players we're talking about; Cameron is 32 and Wilson turns 31 in July.  Again, I think that Wilson is overhyped and that Cameron is the better player, but given the size of the contracts these players are carrying, one would have to believe that it shouldn't take that much to pry one of them loose.  The Orioles aren't helped by the fact that they're obviously desperate, but they might be able to play these clubs off against one another and give up little or nothing of value simply for taking the contract (or a good chunk of it anyway) off the Mets' or Rockies' hands.  Colorado has to be desperate to unload Wilson, who's making better than $12 million (what on earth did he ever do to earn that contract?) for a team that appears destined to lose at least 100 games this year and is carrying other unmovable contracts.  The Mets are probably less likely to accept a one-way deal for Cameron (he's making a bit over $7 million this year), but have been trying to move him since shortly after inking Carlos Beltran this winter.

Beyond filling the immediate gaping hole created by Matos' injury, a player like Cameron or Wilson could be ultimately plugged into left field when Matos is ready to return if Bigbie never starts hitting.  The right acquisition now could serve the dual role of helping fill the gap in the short-term and actually make the team better over the rest of the season.

Regardless of the specifics of any negotiations, and keeping in mind that there are certainly other potential options available (I wonder if Randy Winn of Seattle might be a possibility), the issue of making a move is, to at least one extent, one of perceived credibility for the entire Orioles organization.  Part of that equation deals with on-field play.  Even with Tuesday's difficult loss, the team remains 10 games over .500.  The pitching--particularly that of young, home grown starters Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera--has been outstanding of late.  But pitching and defense go hand in hand and center field is a key defensive position.  It's hard to envision the Orioles maintaining top-of-the-division caliber play without a solid defensive major league center fielder over the next six weeks.

But there's more to this than play on the field.  There's a sense, at this moment, that all of Birdland is turning its collective gaze toward the Warehouse, wondering what the organization will do.  Interest in the Orioles, which has undeniably been slowly waning for years during the recent seven-season slide, is beginning to show signs of being rekindled based on the club's extended strong play in the early going this season.  The franchise spent next to nothing this off-season upgrading the team--a decision that seemed vindicated in the early going and still, to at least an extent, does.  Short of the Sosa move--which was done on the cheap--and comparatively below the radar moves to strengthen the bullpen, little was done.  Charges of self-proclaimed (but illegitimate) penury have been lobbed at the Orioles by some in the mainstream media and among some members of the fan base.  To do nothing other than to shuffle existing parts around in light of the Matos injury would be to confirm these charges for many, and a move really viewed as "giving up" will cement bad feelings on the part of the club's fan base if the team does begin to slide. 

The front office is going to have to be clever.  Fresh reminders of the Denny Bautista-Jason Grimsley deal linger every fifth day when Bautista takes the mound for the Royals.  Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan are not only going to have to be bold, they're going to have to be correct, in a classic, post hoc sort of way.  On the one hand, there's a clear "don't just stand there, do something" mentality afoot.  But it won't be enough just to do something; they must do the right thing.

It's decisions like this that make or break a front office.  These guys are going to earn their salaries, like it or not.

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