Can Defense Do the Job?
By Greg...August 9, 2007
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Can Defense Do the Job? By Greg...August 9, 2007 |
This season the Orioles are scoring fewer runs than the league average, but they're also allowing fewer runs than average. I wondered if that sort of defense-oriented team has much chance of winning, so I did a little research.
I took all the American League teams from the last 3 seasons and broke them into 4 groups: Group 1 (the elite) - above league-average runs scored and below league-average runs allowed; Group 2 (the sluggers) - above average runs and above average runs allowed; Group 3 (pitching & defense) - below average runs and below average runs allowed; and Group 4 (Hell) - below average runs and above average runs allowed.
Here's how the teams break down:
| Group | Teams | Avg Wins |
| Elite | 12 | 88.9 |
| Sluggers | 9 | 85.4 |
| Defense | 10 | 88.5 |
| Hell | 11 | 65.4 |
Surprised by the average wins? I am. Despite scoring fewer than the league average number of runs, the "pitching & defense" teams average the same number of wins as the "elite" teams. Teams that try to slug their way to a pennant don't fare as well, and teams that can't do anything are true disasters.
Here are the 10 teams from "pitching & defense" group -- the ones that are below league-average in runs scored and below league-average in runs allowed. Note: R = runs scored per game; RA = runs allowed per game; LgAvg = league average runs per game; R% and RA% are runs and runs allowed expressed as a percentage of the league average; DefEff = defensive efficiency. All stats are from Baseball-Reference.com.
| Team | Year | Wins | R | RA | LgAvg | R% | RA% | DefEff |
| White Sox | 2005 | 99 | 4.57 | 3.98 | 4.76 | 0.96 | 0.84 | .711 |
| Twins | 2006 | 96 | 4.94 | 4.22 | 4.97 | 0.99 | 0.85 | .685 |
| Angels | 2005 | 95 | 4.70 | 3.97 | 4.76 | 0.99 | 0.83 | .700 |
| As | 2006 | 93 | 4.76 | 4.49 | 4.97 | 0.96 | 0.90 | .688 |
| Twins | 2004 | 92 | 4.81 | 4.41 | 5.01 | 0.96 | 0.88 | .684 |
| As | 2004 | 91 | 4.90 | 4.58 | 5.01 | 0.98 | 0.91 | .698 |
| Angels | 2006 | 89 | 4.73 | 4.52 | 4.97 | 0.95 | 0.91 | .690 |
| Twins | 2005 | 83 | 4.25 | 4.09 | 4.76 | 0.89 | 0.86 | .702 |
| Mariners | 2006 | 78 | 4.67 | 4.89 | 4.97 | 0.94 | 0.98 | .690 |
| Mariners | 2005 | 69 | 4.31 | 4.64 | 4.76 | 0.91 | 0.97 | .701 |
As you can see, 6 of the 10 teams won more than 90 games. Impressive results for teams that don't score many runs. This is where the As, Twins and Angels hang out ... not bad company for any aspiring ballclub.
So a team that scores 5% fewer runs than the league average and allows 10% fewer runs than the league average can expect to win about 90 games. How close are the Orioles to this threshold of competitiveness for a "pitching & defense" team?
| Team | Year | Wins | R | RA | LgAvg | R% | RA% | DefEff |
| Orioles | 2007 | 4.54 | 4.44 | 4.88 | 0.93 | 0.91 | .705 | |
| Orioles | 2006 | 70 | 4.74 | 5.55 | 4.97 | 0.95 | 1.12 | .678 |
| Orioles | 2005 | 74 | 4.50 | 4.94 | 4.76 | 0.95 | 1.04 | .692 |
| Orioles | 2004 | 78 | 5.20 | 5.12 | 5.01 | 1.04 | 1.02 | .686 |
The 2007 Orioles are only 2 percentage points below the 95%-of-league-average threshold for runs scored. It really doesn't take much offense to meet that standard (the team met it in each of the last 3 seasons).
The 2007 Orioles are only 1 percentage point above the 90%-of-league-average threshold for runs allowed. One point.
What are the prospects for improvement in 2008? Quite good, actually.
With a good DH and some more punch off the bench, the 2008 Orioles might be able to move within 5% of the league average for runs scored. The 2007 DHs have been awful so improvement there is easy. I'd bring JR House up now and let him audition as DH for the next two months. If freed from the burden of catching, he might hit up a storm.
Notice that the 2007 Orioles' defensive efficiency has moved up into the range displayed by the best teams on the "pitching & defense" list. The team is going to have to be careful not to mess up the defense with any roster changes this off-season. The outfield is a likely problem spot. I'd rather see Cory Patterson and Jay Payton back than some ham-handed left-fielder and Payton in center. That would damage the defense at both positions. To push Payton and Patterson, the team would be smart to bring in a 4th outfielder who can hit and has a good glove.
The 2008 starting rotation looks like Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera and Olson. Without a doubt, that's a more talented group than the Os have started in many years. But the starting rotation has been surprisingly good this season, so big improvement won't be easy. Burres, Johnson, Liz and Penn are potentially useful fall-back options for 2008.
If the pitching is to make a large step forward, the bullpen must improve. It's been so bad that improvement is almost a given. I'll guess that the 2008 bullpen includes Ray, Hoey, Walker, Bradford, Baez and Burres. Add Jim Johnson as a second long-reliever and on paper at least the bullpen is promising. I think Ray and Hoey must pitch well if there's to be large improvement, and Trembley (or a new manager) will have to use the whole pen carefully. More depth in the form of Doyne-like minor league signings or waiver claims would be smart.
After looking at these records, I'm more encouraged about the future of the Orioles than I have been in ages. The team doesn't have to score runs like the Yankees to win 90+ games. The offense, as weak as it is, is almost good enough already. The talent on the pitching & defense side of the equation can lead the Orioles forward. The Os could compete in 2008.