|
The Case for
Barry Bonds |
There is a tendency, I think, for truly great players to be relatively unappreciated while they're active. I'm not talking about good players, or iconic players...I'm talking about players who are among the greatest ever to play the game. I think it's clear, for instance, that Ted Williams wasn't recognized for the true value of his talents--one of the two greatest hitters of all time--until long after he was retired.
To a certain degree, I suppose, this is inevitable. Some degree of perspective is typically required to truly appreciate a player's impact and it is true--it's difficult to appreciate what you've got until it's gone (when it becomes what you had). Even Babe Ruth, baseball's most legendary figure to this day, wasn't fully valued until after he'd called it quits.
All of that brings us to one Barry Bonds. Bonds, it is true, is widely seen as a great player. He's won six MVP Awards (no other player has won more than three). No one doubts that he's a certain first ballot Hall of Famer. And every once in awhile you'll even hear someone suggest that he might be one of the best ever.
What's interesting about all of this is that there would be any doubt at all that he's one of the "best ever." A strong argument can be made that Bonds is the best all-around position player in major league baseball history, so there's little doubt that he's "one of the best."
What has made Bonds so noteworthy has been his ability to not only maintain but actually increase his offensive value after reaching his late 30's. This is unprecedented in the history of pro ball; not that great players haven't had great seasons late in their career, because it's happened. But Bonds has consistently had great seasons after reaching age 35. I mean, there hasn't been a hiccup; there hasn't been even one example of a merely "good" season. We're talking one great year after another.
Following the 2001 season, I did some research and wrote an article called "The Age of Greatness", which appeared live on this Web site (with limited commercial interruption). Bonds turned 37 in July of 2001, and the piece took a look at all the players in modern (i.e. post-19th Century) major league history who had turned in the 25 best .700+ Offensive Winning Percentage/502+ Plate Appearance seasons at age 36 and/or 37 to see what might be expected of Bonds as he aged.
I encourage you to check out the full article if you haven't already done so because I think the information is fascinating. (No, I'm not patting myself on the back; the analysis, for which I'm responsible, is something that anyone could have done. The information itself, which is something that anyone could have uncovered, is the star of the show.) But for those of you not inclined to deal with the nitty gritty, the gist of the story is that only five players in big league history compiled seasons with at least a .700 OWP in at least 502 ABs after age 37. Two did it twice (Ted Williams and Willie Mays); three did it once (Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner and Edgar Martinez).
What has happened since then?
Bonds played 2002 technically at age 37 and 2003 at age 38, but was very close to the cut off date (about 3 1/2 weeks) that would have placed him at 38 and 39. In 2002, Bonds compiled a .942 OWP in 612 plate appearances. That's the highest OWP in a season of at least 502 plate appearances in big league history, regardless of age. The second highest mark is Bonds' .922 in 2001. In 2003, technically at age 38 (turning 39 on July 24, 2003) Bonds managed a mark of .897 in 550 plate appearances. It was the sixth highest OWP finish of all-time, and the highest ever for a player at age 38 or higher.
Here is a list of the top 10 OWP marks (min. 502 PAs) since 1900:
| Rank | Player | Season | OWP | PA | Age |
1 |
Barry Bonds |
2002 |
.942 |
612 |
37 |
2 |
Barry Bonds |
2001 |
.922 |
664 |
36 |
3 |
Mickey Mantle |
1957 |
.915 |
623 |
25 |
4 |
Babe Ruth |
1920 |
.913 |
616 |
25 |
5 |
Ted Williams |
1941 |
.908 |
604 |
22 |
6 |
Barry Bonds |
2003 |
.897 |
550 |
38 |
7 |
Babe Ruth |
1923 |
.896 |
699 |
28 |
8 |
Babe Ruth |
1921 |
.891 |
693 |
26 |
9 |
Ted Williams |
1957 |
.891 |
546 |
38 |
10 |
Babe Ruth |
1926 |
.883 |
652 |
31 |
Note the following:
1) Only four different names appear on the list
2) Bonds has the top two seasons on the list and three of the top six
3) All three of Bonds' table-inclusive seasons have come in the last three years
4) Bonds is the only player to produce a season worthy of making the top 10 since Mantle's 1957 Triple Crown year
5) The only player other than Bonds to have a season on this list above age 31 is Ted Williams (one year, 1957); Bonds has three such seasons on the list
What Barry Bonds has done in the past three years is unique in major league history.
Of course, Bonds wasn't exactly chopped liver prior to the past three seasons. To date, Bonds has the longest string of .700+ OWP seasons (min. 400 PAs) in baseball history--14 (1990-2003), breaking Ty Cobb's run of 13 (1907-19).
At an age when virtually all players are seeing their non-counting career numbers (batting average, slugging percentage, OWP, etc.) decline, Bonds has actually seen his already stratospheric marks improve. For instance, through the 2000 season, Bonds has a career OWP mark of .763. At the time, that was good for 11th all-time (minimum 5000 PAs). In the last three seasons, played technically at ages 36-38, Bonds has put together a .923 OWP, and pushed his all-time OWP mark to .804, third all-time behind only Ruth (.852) and Williams (.832).
* * *
In early September of 2001, in my one and only trip to what was then known as Pacific Bell Park in San Francisco, I was fortunate enough to see Barry Bonds play and, true to form, homer. It was one of 73 home runs he hit that year, but it's the only time I've seen Bonds play a game in person and it may well be the only time it ever happens. I've remained quite conscious of that, because Bonds has surely been the greatest player of my lifetime and one of the three best ever. Sometimes it's worth noting without waiting for history's dust to accrue and legitimize the assessment. This, I submit, is one of those times.
ADDENDUM: Bonds at Pac Bell
One of the most noteworthy things about Bonds' achievements in recent years is that he's continued his assault on Hank Aaron's all-time big league home run record despite playing in one of the worst ballparks for left-handed home run hitters in major league history. Pacific Bell Park opened at the start of the 2000 season and has had a composite LH Home Run Index during that time of 66. That means that there have been only 2/3 as many home runs hit by lefty batters in Giants home games over the past four years as by lefty batters in Giants road games over the same period of time.
Despite that encumbrance, Bonds has remained a devastating home run threat. Consider the following table:
| Year | LH Pac Bell HR | Bonds Pac Bell HR | Other SF LH Pac Bell HR | Opp LH Pac Bell HR | Pac Bell LH HR Index |
| 2000 | 55 | 25 | 14 | 16 | 77 |
| 2001 | 60 | 37 | 11 | 12 | 57 |
| 2002 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 55 |
| 2003 | 42 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 75 |
| Total | 193 | 104 | 33 | 56 | 66 |
| % Tot. | 53.89% | 17.10% | 29.02% | ||
| % SF Tot. |
75.91% |
||||
The first column of the table is self-explanatory. The second displays the total number of HRs hit by left-handed batters at Pac Bell. The third column shows the number of home runs hit by Bonds at Pac Bell. The fourth column displays the number of home runs hit by Giants other than Bonds at Pac Bell. The fifth column shows the number of home runs hit by lefty swinging Giants opponents at Pac Bell. The sixth and final column displays the aforementioned LH HR Index for Pac Bell.
193 home runs have been hit by left-handed batters at Pac Bell since the park opened--an average of only 48-odd homers per season. Remember, this is the sum total of home runs hit by all left-handed batters, both Giants and their opponents. Bonds has hit 104 of those homers (an average of 26 per season), or just under 54% of the total.
Think about that for a moment--Bonds has hit more than half of all the home runs hit by lefty batters in the history of Pac Bell Park.
Other Giants lefty batters have hit a total of 33 home runs (17%) in the four-year period, and opponents' lefty swingers have hit 56 (29%).
Bonds has hit 76% of the home runs hit by left-handed Giants swingers since the park opened.