Kerry's Calculus Baseball's Amateur Draft:  An Historical Series Part Two:  First Round Summary

I concluded part one--posted, I believe, during the Truman Administration--of this series with the following statement:  "In the next installment we'll take a closer look at the varying success of high schoolers and collegians--pitchers and position players--over the years."  And so we shall.  But first, some background on the first round of the draft and an overall assessment of those choices.  We'll get back to the high school/college comparison in the third installment of this series.  (To review the first part of the series, click here.)

For this analysis, we'll be focusing on the first round of the regular June draft each year since 1965.  As W.C. Madden, author of the indispensable Baseball's First-Year Player Draft writes, "The second draft came in January 1966 so that players who were drafted would only be committed to a team for a six-month period.  This maneuver by Major League Baseball was used to appease players and those opposed to the draft.  The draft was now split into two phases:  regular and secondary.  The regular phase was for high school graduates, junior college players and players who had reached their 21st birthday.  The secondary or special phase offered teams those players who had been previously selected in the draft, but still hadn't signed and were newly eligible."  This format continued through 1986, after which the January draft and secondary draft phases were abandoned, having become effectively superfluous over time.  

The data that follows is limited to the first round of the regular phase of the June draft, for a variety of reasons.  The most practical reason for this restriction is a lack of data.  I have complete draft information for the first round of the regular June draft.  I don't have anything resembling complete information for anything else.  Another reason for looking at the June draft is that the draft order is pre-determined (reverse order of record, alternating by league, from the previous season).  Additionally, the best, highest ceiling players, were all eligible initially in a June draft's regular phase.  Players chosen in either phase of the January draft or in the secondary phase of the June draft had all been eligible for selection in the regular June phase at some point and, in fact, most were initially chosen in such a draft.  Some didn't sign, but all were eligible to do so.  Finally, the June draft regular phase, with its many rounds and full scale eligibility, is the best indicator of teams' pre-draft assessment of talent.  The January drafts and the secondary phase of the June draft typically lasted only a few rounds.  A first round pick in one of these draft phases really isn't comparable to a first round pick in the June draft's regular phase.

Keep in mind that prior to the January round of the 1985 draft, only American players--U.S. residents from the 50 states and the District of Columbia--were subject to the draft.  In January of 1985, for the first time, foreigners playing amateur ball in the U.S. were also subject to the draft.  In 1989, players from U.S. possessions--Puerto Rico, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Island, American Somoa, etc.--were included in the draft.  Canadians were included in the draft shortly thereafter.

Additionally, the analysis that follows applies only to true first round picks.  Picks added to the end of the first round--so-called "sandwich picks," which are sometimes categorized as first round choices--are excluded.  The number of picks that are "true" first rounders is equivalent to the number of franchises drafting--20 from 1965-68, 24 from 1969-76, 26 from 1977-91, 28 from 1992-95 and 30 from 1996 through the 2001 draft.  The only exception to this rule is 1997 when the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays were granted the final two picks in the first round in the last draft before they began play the following season.  Because of a compensation agreement, the Orioles were granted two "true" first round picks that year (exercised in the form of Darnell McDonald and Jayson Werth), so there were actually 31 first round choices that year.

Player Classification

Those of you who read the series on the Orioles amateur draft history that I posted last year will recall a typology of players that I created in order to evaluate the club's draft  success over the years.  I've reprised that typology here, with one additional category.  Players are scored according to their major league performance in the following manner:

0 = Player never reached the major leagues

1 = Player had a "cup of coffee" in the majors

2 = Player was a major league "journeyman"

3 = Player was a starting position player or "contributing" pitcher at the major league level

4 =  Player was a "star" at the major league level

These categories are, admittedly, crude, with the exception of "0" which is cut and dried.  Arguably, 10 or 12 categories could have been used for greater evaluative granularity, but in an attempt to make this project something approaching manageable (there have been 955 players selected in the first round of the regular phase of the June draft since 1965), I limited it to the five categories above.  The classification was based on performance through the end of the 2001 season so, for example, players who debuted in 2002 would be in the "0" category.

0 - Player Never Reached the Major Leagues  Self-explanatory.  Players in this category were first round picks who never appeared in a big league game.

1 - Player Had a Cup of Coffee in the Major Leagues  Players in this grouping made it to the bigs, but spent very little time there--typically less than the equivalent of a full season, though said player may have appeared in big league games over several years.  Of course, some players currently in this group will move up over time.  A few "familiar" examples over the years:  Drungo Hazewood, Dallas Williams, Larry Bigbie.

2 - Player Was a Major League Journeyman  Kind of an in-between category.  Players in this grouping had more than a cup of coffee but weren't starting position players or contributing players, at least not for more than a few years.  Most players in this category had a relatively brief major league career, but some played for a long time...just not in an every-day role.  Examples:  Mark Smith, Junior Kennedy, Mike Parrott.

3 - Player Was a Starting Position Player or Contributing Pitcher at the Major League Level  Fairly self-explanatory.  Most players in this grouping had careers that spanned at least ten seasons, though a few had shorter careers.  In all cases, however, players in this classification were starting position players, full-time starting pitchers or regularly called upon relief pitchers for the bulk of their big league career.  Most of these players were at least average performers at their positions, though a few were below average; the key to making this category is quantitative in nature rather than qualitative.  Most players with fairly lengthy careers as starting position players or contributing pitchers perform well enough to justify such a role, but some don't.  Some of these players had star-caliber seasons here and there, but weren't able to sustain a very high level of play for more than a small portion of their careers.  Examples:  Rich Dauer, Jeffrey Hammonds, Ben McDonald.

4 - Player Was a Star at the Major League Level  To make this category a player had to be better than average for the vast majority of his career, and the career had to be long enough to justify such a classification.  Exceptions were made for a number of relatively young ballplayers whose careers are currently exhibiting clear star quality but could get hurt or fall apart and ultimately slip back.  (For instance, I put Lance Berkman in this category.)  A Hall of Fame level of play isn't necessary, though it is sufficient, to make this category.  Examples:  Bobby Grich, Mike Mussina.

First Round Classification History

So, how do things stack up classification-wise over the years?  Glad you asked:

"Picks" refers to the number of first round choices in a given year.  

"Avg. Yrs." refers to the number of big league seasons (or parts of big league seasons, more accurately) that the average first round pick for a given year played.

The numerical columns refer to the number of first round picks for a given season who fell into each of the categories described above.

Note that the average first round pick to date has spent 4.5 years--or partial years--in the big leagues.  Also note that nearly 42% of first round picks from 1965-2001 had not spent a day in the bigs through the 2001 season.  16% had a cup of coffee, roughly 20% were journeymen, 20% starting/contributing players and just under 6% were classified as stars.

Now, some of those numbers are "red-shifted" (sorry for the astronomy reference) because of the inclusion of very recent drafts.  For instance, it's hardly surprising that no one drafted in 2001 has reached the major leagues to date.  In fact, it's not surprising that few players from the last several drafts have made it to the big leagues.  All of this is skewing the numbers somewhat, so let's toss out the last few drafts and focus on, say, the drafts from 1965-1994.  I suspect that a few ballplayers who were drafted eight years ago or more might change their categorical positions in time, but probably not very many, so I think the following table is reasonably demonstrative.

Note that the numbers have changed somewhat.  Still, more than 1/3 of the first round draft picks from 1965-94 never appeared in a big league game.  Another 15.5% have had no more than a cup of coffee.  22.5% are classified as journeyman; 22% are starters/contributing players and a bit less than 7% are stars.  And the average first round pick during this period played parts of 5.4 major league seasons.

Conclusions

The numbers above confirm the anecdotal evidence--drafting amateur players is a very dicey proposition.  Keep in mind that this is the first round we're talking about; these are the players most highly thought of by major league clubs.  Nevertheless, roughly half of these players have turned out to be completely inconsequential in terms of big league impact.  A third of the population never made the bigs at all, and another 16-odd percent made it only as a footnote.  Another 23-odd percent had a minimal impact.  So more than 70% of the population is ultimately entirely or virtually of little consequence to a major league team.  Just like the big leagues, if you're batting .300 in top prospect realization, you're doing pretty well.  Less than 30% of this group of 30 first round drafts has had a significant effect at the big league level, and this is the best of the bunch.  One can only guess at how much more heavily the numbers would pile up in the left-hand percentage columns with a complete analysis of later rounds of the draft.

Next:  The long-promised comparison of the quality of high school and college first round picks over the years.

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