Kerry's Calculus
Baseball's Amateur Draft: An
Historical Series
Part Four: The First Round, Team-By-Team
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Kerry's Calculus Baseball's Amateur Draft: An
Historical Series
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In part three of the amateur draft series, written during the Truman Administration, we took a look at the relative historical distribution of college and high school selections in the first round. Part two of the amateur draft series examined how first round draft picks have stacked up over the years. Part one of the series provided a quasi-demographic background glance at the first round.
Here, in part four, we'll see how each franchise has fared in drafting first rounders. How many meaningful players has each team snared? How many players have been washouts? How does each club's performance compare to the league average? We'll examine all of that and a bit more.
First Round Pick Summary
| Team | # Picks | HS | Coll. | Pitch | Pos. | HS P | Coll P | HS Pos | Coll Pos | Years | # 0 | # 1 | # 2 | # 3 | # 4 | % 0 | % 1 | % 2 | % 3 | % #4 | Useless | Useful |
| Anaheim |
37 |
17 | 20 | 15 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 6.4 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 24.3% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 32.4% | 8.1% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta | 36 | 31 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 4.1 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 41.7% | 16.7% | 19.4% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Baltimore | 37 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3.2 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 56.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 8.1% | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| Boston | 36 | 23 | 13 | 14 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 4.0 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 52.8% | 5.6% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Chicago (A) | 39 | 21 | 18 | 15 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 4.8 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 35.9% | 17.9% | 25.6% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| Chicago (N) | 41 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 3.5 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 39.0% | 26.8% | 19.5% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| Cincinnati | 35 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 3.4 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 51.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 20.0% | 5.7% | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| Cleveland | 37 | 24 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 4.8 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 45.9% | 8.1% | 18.9% | 24.3% | 2.7% | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Colorado | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 11.1% | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| Detroit | 37 | 24 | 13 | 16 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 3.6 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 45.9% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 5.4% | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| Florida | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2.6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 44.4% | 22.2% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Houston | 35 | 21 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 3.6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 40.0% | 22.9% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Kansas City | 35 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 4.9 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 34.3% | 14.3% | 34.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| Los Angeles | 34 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4.4 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 52.9% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| Milwaukee | 32 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5.9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 34.4% | 15.6% | 6.3% | 34.4% | 9.4% | 56.3% | 43.8% |
| Minnesota | 38 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 4.1 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 34.2% | 15.8% | 31.6% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 81.6% | 18.4% |
| Montreal | 34 | 23 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 4.5 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 50.0% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 32.4% | 0.0% | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| New York (A) | 28 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 4.4 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 39.3% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 17.9% | 7.1% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| New York (N) | 42 | 27 | 15 | 14 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 4.7 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 38.1% | 21.4% | 11.9% | 23.8% | 4.8% | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Oakland | 39 | 18 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 5.4 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 35.9% | 10.3% | 23.1% | 17.9% | 12.8% | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| Philadelphia | 35 | 24 | 11 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4.0 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 40.0% | 11.4% | 22.9% | 22.9% | 2.9% | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 37 | 29 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 3.5 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 56.8% | 5.4% | 18.9% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 81.1% | 18.9% |
| San Diego | 35 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 5.3 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 31.4% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 25.7% | 2.9% | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| San Francisco | 41 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4.4 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 34.1% | 26.8% | 22.0% | 12.2% | 4.9% | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| Seattle | 25 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6.3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 20.0% | 16.0% | 20.0% | 36.0% | 8.0% | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| St. Louis | 42 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 4.9 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 35.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 26.2% | 2.4% | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas | 34 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 5.5 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 29.4% | 20.6% | 29.4% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| Toronto | 27 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 3.1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 37.0% | 29.6% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 3.7% | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| TOTAL | 955 | 567 | 388 | 424 | 531 | 223 | 201 | 344 | 187 | 4.1 | 388 | 150 | 181 | 183 | 54 | 40.6% | 15.7% | 19.0% | 19.2% | 5.7% | 75.3% | 24.8% |
Legend: # Picks: Total number of first round picks in draft history; HS: Players drafted out of high school; Coll: Players drafted out of college; Pitch: Players drafted as pitchers; Pos.: Player drafted as position players; HSP: High school pitchers; Coll P: College Pitchers; HS Pos: High school position players; Coll Pos: College position players; Years: Average number of years (or partial years) in big leagues for first round picks; # 0: Number of players not reaching major leagues; #1: number of "cup of coffee" players; #2: number of journeyman players; #3: number of starting/contributing players; #4: number of star players; % 0: percentage first round picks not reaching majors; % 1: percentage "cup of coffee" first round picks; % 2: percentage journeyman first round picks; % 3: percentage starting/contributing first round picks; % 4: percentage star first round picks; Useless: percentage first round picks in categories 0-2; Useful: percentage first round picks in categories 3-4
Notes: All data and ratings set as of the beginning of the 2002 series; drafts included: 1965-2001; Washington Senators drafts included with Texas; Seattle Pilots draft included with Milwaukee
For more on ratings, see the Player Classification section in part two of the series.
That's a lot of data to take in. Let me hit some highlights, but essentially allow you to draw your own conclusions:
ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), only one team (Montreal) hasn't drafted a player classified as a star in the first round (average is slightly more than two per club)
Oakland has drafted more first round stars (5) than any other franchise; should one now consider Barry Zito and Mark Mulder stars (they didn't merit that rating yet, in my estimation, prior to this season), the A's would have almost twice as many first round stars as any other club)
the New York Yankees have had only 28 first round picks despite participating in 37 drafts; the Toronto Blue Jays, who have participated in 12 fewer drafts than the Yankees, have had 27 first round picks; the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals have secured 42 first round picks apiece
ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), at least half the first round picks of four clubs have failed to reach the big leagues: Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh (average: 40.1%)
ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), the following franchises have a "useless percentage" above 80: (starting with the worst) Chicago (N), Detroit, San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Pittsburgh (average: 75.0%)
ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), only three clubs have a "useful percentage" above 40: (starting with the best) Seattle, Milwaukee and Anaheim (average: 25.0%); not surprisingly, these three clubs have the highest "years" marks as well (average: 4.5 years)
ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), the following teams have the lowest "years" marks, all 3.5 or below: (starting with the worst) Toronto, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago (N), Pittsburgh
(not shown in the table above, but interesting nonetheless) ignoring the four franchises with participation in fewer than 10 drafts (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida and Colorado), the following teams haven't had at least one player in category 3 or 4 since 1994 (the last player meeting the criteria is listed in parentheses) -- Atlanta (Chipper Jones, 1990), San Francisco (Royce Clayton, 1988), Baltimore (Jay Powell, 1993), San Diego (Dustin Hermanson, 1994), Boston (Nomar Garciaparra, 1994), Cincinnati (Pokey Reese, 1991), Kansas City (Michael Tucker, 1992), Minnesota (Todd Walker, 1994), and Chicago (A) (Alex Fernandez, 1990).
So what does this tell us about the overall drafting prowess of baseball's clubs? Only a limited amount. There's more to the draft than the first round, of course, and many great players haven't been first round picks. (In fact, given the number of players not eligible for the draft, many great players haven't been drafted at all. And some fine ballplayers who were draft eligible were never drafted; the Pittsburgh Pirates, for instance, signed Bobby Bonilla to his first pro contract as an undrafted free agent.)
In an attempt to take a more complete look at the draft, next time we'll attempt a comprehensive look at each franchise's draft success (or lack thereof) from 1965-98. Unfortunately, the source to be used for this endeavor is sufficiently difficult to work with that it may be some time before I'm able to put all the data together.