Kerry's CALCULUS

The Age of Greatness

Near the end of this year's regular season, I wrote an article that discussed the phenomenal year that Barry Bonds had put together in 2001.  It was arguably the greatest offensive season in major league history, as the article implies.  Bonds had this season in the final year of a multi-year contract and, upon completion, was met with...utter silence.  To the best of my knowledge, only one team--the San Francisco Giants--made Bonds any kind of an offer and ultimately the star left fielder accepted arbitration from the Giants.  Bonds has an arbitration hearing soon and, according to recent published reports, Bonds' agent Steve Boros and the club are close to a deal on a four-year contract.  Boros publicly mused about a five-year contract being a minimum requirement months ago, when it was unclear what the market would bear.

The free agent market was relatively flat this season, and given Bonds' age, many people felt that not offering him a multi-year deal--irrespective of what he'd done in 2001 and earlier, was a good move on the part of...well, on the part of every club in baseball.  Bonds, after all, turned 36 midway through the 2001 season and we all know that--generally speaking--players of that age are risky propositions and are in decline, performance-wise, anyway.

Generally speaking.

But we're not speaking generally, we're speaking of Barry Bonds.  We're speaking of a player who was--again, arguably--coming off the greatest offensive season ever.  Should we be speaking generally?

Note that we have a number of multiple entries:  Babe Ruth and Edgar Martinez.  So, 23 different players are on this list, including Bonds himself.  Note further that the list includes a ton of bonafide stars.  In fact, of those eligible, only Bob Johnson (a fine player from the 1930s and '40s known as "Indian" Bob Johnson), Norm Cash, Tommy Henrich and Jose Cruz aren't in the Hall of Fame.  Henrich arguably should be there (he was a better player than Enos Slaughter, who's in the Hall), but has probably been handicapped by playing parts of only 11 seasons (he lost three full years to WWII).  The others were all good players, but probably not HOF material.  Of those not yet eligible, only Andres Galarraga and Will Clark are unlikely to be chosen.  Well Edgar Martinez might not be a lock because he's spent most of his career as a DH, but since we're talking about one of baseball's greatest hitters, he really should be in the Hall (he has the 19th highest career OWP of all-time, for players with at least 5000 plate appearances--every player higher on the list is either in the Hall or ineligible because of date of retirement (Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire) or a commissioner's ruling (Shoeless Joe Jackson)...but I digress).  Gwynn and Molitor are locks.  So are Bonds and McGwire.

So this is the list of great players with whom to compare Bonds at this stage of his career.  How did these players perform after age 36-37?

(For a complete year-by-year display of these players from age 36 on, click here.  Be patient, it may take a little while for the page to load.)

There are several salient issues to consider: 

1) How long did these guys play, period?  Bonds turns 38 on July 24, 2002.  At the end of a four-year deal, he'd be 41.  At the end of the hypothetical five-year deal, he'd be 42.  How many of these guys even lasted that long?

2) Irrespective of how many seasons they played after age 36-37, how much did they play in those seasons?

3) And, of course, irrespective of how long and how much, how well, did they play after those seasons?

How Long Did They Play?

Of the 22 players that are a part of this study (Bonds is the 23rd, and he's the subject), two are still active.  Andres Galarraga will be 41 next season and Edgar Martinez will be 39.  Barring tragedy between now and opening day, both will play in 2002.  Whether they play beyond that remains to be seen, but based on recent performance, one would have to assume that they'll both play in 2003 as well, which would allow them to at least reach 42 and 40 respectively as active players.

Of the 20 retired players on this list, one retired after his age 36 season (Clark--who, incidentally, has to have one of the top OWP marks in a final season preceding a voluntary retirement in big league history).  Another (Henrich) retired after his age 37 year.  Two players (Johnson and Ott;) packed it in after age 38.  Wheat, Cash and Schmidt played at age 39 and then called it quits.  Ruth, Speaker, Cruz and Brett did the same after their age 40 seasons while Williams, Gwynn and Molitor made it to age 41.  Aaron, Musial and Mays got to 42 and Wagner, Winfield and Appling got to age 43.  That's the end of the line.

To summarize, 15 of the 22 (if you include Galarraga and Martinez) made it at least to age 40 as active players.  Ten of the 22 (if you include Galarraga) made it at least to age 41; six of the 22 (excluding Galarraga and Martinez) at least reached age 42.  If Galarraga and Martinez make it, obviously, eight of the 22 would get to 42.

How Much Did They Play?

Beginning with age 38, here's how the players on the above list broke down in terms of plate appearances:

The table shows that, first, the players averaged a total of about three seasons from age 38 on and, second, that roughly half of these seasons were as what amounts to full-time players.  Roughly 1/3 of the seasons showed less than 400 plate appearances.

The point is, counting on players 38-years-old and greater to play regularly is a very dicey proposition.  Less than half of the cumulative post-38-year-old seasons played by our sample resulted in at least 502 plate appearances and nearly 1/3 resulted in seasons of fewer than 400 plate appearances.  Fully 22% of the composite seasons resulted in seasons of less than 300 PAs.  It's also worth remembering that two members of the sample played zero seasons at age 38 or above and a third (Ott) appeared in a total of four games (four PAs) in his one season above age 37.

How Well Did They Play?

The following table displays a range of season outcomes, using OWP as our offensive placeholder:

This is probably the grimmest assessment yet.  Only 25% of the seasons in our sample resulted in at least 502 plate appearances and an offensive winning percentage of at least .600.  In barely 10% of the total seasons was the OWP at least .700, coupled with at least 502 plate appearances.  Only two players on the list--Willie Mays and Ted Williams--managed the feat more than once.  No one has ever done it three times.  In fact, in the entire history of modern baseball, there have been only nine seasons of at least 502 plate appearances and an OWP of at least .700 by a player of at least 38 years of age.  Given the repeat appearances of Mays and Williams on this list, only seven different players have accomplished the feat since 1900.  Joe Morgan and Ty Cobb join Mays, Williams, Martinez, Ruth, and Wagner on this elite list.  Seven of those seasons are captured in the above table.  Only 38 times in modern major league history has a player compiled at least 502 plate appearances and managed an OWP of at least .600 in a single season.  Only 30 different players have accomplished the feat, 12 of whom are on the above list. 

It should be clear that expecting a player, 38 years of age or older, to be both productive and healthy is the biggest stretch of all.  And, of course, we're talking about great players here, not the average big league player.

The complete list of .600+ OWP/502+ PA seasons follows:

What the above table should indicate is that highly productive, complete seasons from players of 38 years of age or higher--even very good or great players--is a rare thing.  Very rare.  Think about all of the great players you know who aren't on this list.

Another thing that should be noted--as one might expect, the older the player, the lower the likelihood of making the list and, in any case, even if the list is made the OWP drops as age increases.  Of the 38 seasons reflected in the above table, 18 were accomplished by 38 year olds--five of these seasons were +.700 OWP or better.  10 of the seasons on the list were accomplished by 39-year-olds and just two reached .700 or better.  Seven 40-year-olds made the list, and just two of them (Willie Mays and Ty Cobb) cleared the .700 mark.  Two 41-year-olds are on the list and none reached .700.  And finally, only one player--Carlton Fisk--made the list as a 42-year-old and he didn't reach .700.  That's it.  No one above 42 years of age has ever turned in a season with at least 502 plate appearances and an offensive winning percentage of at least .700.

The only player to make the above list more than twice was Darrell Evans, who turned the trick (ages 38-40) but never had an OWP better than .681 during the stretch.

Conclusions

What does all of this tell us?  Well, with respect to Bonds and the Giants...and every other team in baseball...refusing to consider a five-year deal was clearly the right move.  If Barry Bonds managed to stay productive enough to reach .700/502 even three times at age 38 or above, he'd blaze a new trail.  As mentioned above, no one has ever done that, and only Ted Williams and Willie Mays have accomplished the feat twice.  Mays, of course, is Bonds' godfather and one of the game's greatest all-around players. 

Williams is arguably the best single player comparison for Bonds in baseball history--they play the same position, they have similar offensive numbers, particularly accounting for era (Williams' OWP through his age 37 season was .837; Bonds stands at .786); both were/are left-handed pull hitters with huge power who played their careers in generally lousy ballparks for their particular skills, both drew tons of walks; Williams was the better hitter for average; Bonds had a lot more speed and was a much better baserunner and a far better defensive outfielder.  They're not peas in a pod, but there are striking similarities between the two.

And here's the point:  Williams is unquestionably one of the greatest offensive players in big league history.  He stands second in career OWP (5000 PA minimum) only to Babe Ruth, and a bit of interpolating suggests that, had he not lost the better part of five seasons to war-time service, during the prime of his career, he might be ranked first.  (Bonds, BTW, currently ranks sixth on the all-time list, just .001 behind Rogers Hornsby.)

In any event, even if we use Williams himself as a direct comparison, rather than a broader array of players who have put together great seasons at late career ages, the evidence tells us that Bonds might have two very good or great, full seasons left and then, even if he's able to keep his production high, won't be able to play every day.  In other words, getting five more superstar years out of Bonds is almost unimaginable.  No one's ever done it.  In fact, no one's ever come close to doing it.  Even getting four more superstar years out of him--which is presumably what the Giants would be hoping if the rumors are correct, would be completely unprecedented.  Heck, three more superstar years is a push, though arguably worth the gamble, given that Bonds doesn't formally turn 38 until after the rather arbitrary cut off point for the year (i.e. for the purposes of this analysis, he's heading into his age 37 season, not age 38...and both Mays and Williams had three .700/502 seasons during the 37-39 age period.  It's probably not a huge stretch to believe that Bonds is capable of doing so; he's certainly proven himself to be in the Mays/Williams class thus far.

Four years, however, is really pushing it, and five borders on absurd.  The Giants' best move, perhaps, would be to offer Bonds a three-year deal with a healthy fourth-year club option with a lucrative buyout clause.

Beyond the Bonds situation specifically, however, we can draw some additional conclusions:  first, multi-year contracts to position players (this analysis hasn't looked at pitchers, so nothing meaningful can be said on that front) in their mid-30's or older, with very few exceptions, are very risky propositions.  Further, multi-year contracts given to players in their late 30's--even great players, players unquestionably bound for the Hall of Fame--are beyond risky.  With, again, very few exceptions, if a team is counting on a great player to put up plus-offensive production at that stage of his career, and commits to that player accordingly--both in terms of raw dollars and guaranteed years--it is likely to be sorely disappointed.

The following facts must be kept in mind:

In the modern history of major league baseball, a player has managed a +.600 OWP/+502 PA season 38 times at age 38 or above; the feat has been accomplished by only 30 different players.

In the modern history of major league baseball, a player has managed a +.700 OWP/+502 PA season nine times at age 38 or above; the feat has been accomplished by only seven different players.

No player has ever managed a +.700 OWP/+502 PA season more than twice from age 38 on and only two players have accomplished the feat twice.

No player has ever managed a +.600 OWP/+502 PA season more than three times from age 38 on and only one player has accomplished the feat three times.

One might want to cut some slack with the likes of Barry Bonds and Edgar Martinez, but generally speaking teams will stray from the caveats of locking up old players for big money and long years at their peril.

The Age of Greatness Player Tables page (may take awhile to load)

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