JOHN STEPHENS
| G | GS | CG | GF | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | SH | SF | HB | TBB | SO | WP | BR/9 | W | L | PCT | ShO | SV-O | HLD | ERA |
| 12 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 65.0 | 281 | 68 | 44 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 56 | 2 | 12.88 | 2 | 5 | .286 | 0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6.09 |
SEASON SUMMARY
There's something truly enigmatic about John Stephens and assessing his chances of becoming a successful major league starting pitcher. Over the past couple of seasons he's essentially forced the Orioles to give him a shot by dominating the Eastern and International Leagues. He made his major league debut in late July, at the age of 22 and promptly got hammered.
In fact, it's fairly easy to look at Stephens' 2002 ERA--6.09 in 12 appearances, 11 starts--and conclude that the season was a disaster for him. Easy, but incomplete, and very possibly inaccurate. Move past the earned run average and focus on the peripherals and you'll see a more complete, and more complex, picture emerge.
Stephens allowed 12.88 baserunners per nine innings--almost exactly the league average. He fanned 7.75 men per nine innings, well above the league average. On the downside, he allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings, well above the league average and the source of almost all of his problems.
Stephens, as we all know, doesn't have a big league fastball. His fastball topped out last year at about 84 MPH, well below the consensus average big league fastball (high 80s). Stephens gets by with a series of off-speed pitches and impeccable control.
The debate has revolved around whether Stephens can consistently retire big league hitters without even an average major league fastball. That matter remains unresolved, but consider the following:
Four of Stephens' starts in 2002 were repeat engagements--facing teams for the second time. Overall, he was more effective the second time around. He certainly wasn't any less effective.
He was more successful as he went through teams' batting orders a second and third time than he was the first time through
He did strike out nearly eight batters per nine innings despite not having a pitch he could simply throw past hittters
He's now 23 years old
All of the above factors are inconsistent with someone getting results with mirrors. They all imply an ability of Stephens to pitch well enough to retire batters, even those familiar with him.
In the final analysis, it's unclear whether Stephens will be able to be a successful major league starter, but there's a significant amount of circumstantial evidence to imply that it's not a completely absurd notion. He certainly should have the opportunity to sink or swim based on his performance in 2003.
TO CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, HE MUST:
1) cut down on the home runs allowed; this was Stephens' Achilles Heel in 2002 and to be successful he needs to address this problem
2) cut down on the walks a bit; this wasn't a huge problem for him last year, but it would be a help if he could drop the BB/9IP rate down to something approaching two rather than three
3) do a better job coming out of the gate in each performance (see below)
4) continue to demonstrate that he can retire batters who are familiar with him
NOTES
Virtually no platoon effect at all (LH batters: .268/.328/.472; RH batters: .273/.333/.477)...allowed fewer hits than innings pitched (58 in 62 IP) after first start...much more effective with bases empty (.247/.317/.425) than men on (.305/.350/.543)...in first inning: .370/.415/.522 in 46 ABs; in innings 2-3: .318/.362/.557 in 88 ABs; in innings 4-6: .196/.287/.392 in 102 ABs.