SEASON SUMMARY

ERA can be a misleading statistic for a short reliever and in some respects that was the case for Willis Roberts throughout much of the 2002 season.  Following an appearance in a win over Detroit on August 17--his 55th appearance of the season--Roberts' ERA was 2.13, which is ostensibly excellent.  Over the next 11 appearances, Roberts' ERA jumped nearly a run and a quarter, demonstrating the volatility--and unreliability--of the statistic for a short reliever, even late in the season.

Over those final 11 games, Roberts posted the following stats:  11.2 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 13 ER, 7 BB, 9 SO, 10.03 ERA.

So, Roberts had a poor final 1/6 of the season.  He had a lot of company on this club.

But look past that for the moment.  Subtract those numbers from his totals and, for the first 55 games, you get:

63.1 IP, 60 H, 4 HR, 21 ER, 25 BB, 42 SO, 2.13 ERA.

Do those peripherals square with a 2.13 ERA?  Not to me.  Nearly a hit an inning; 3.55 BB/9IP; just under six strikeouts per nine innings; a home run ratio not much better than over the final 11 games.  You could add a run or run and a half to that ERA--make it 3.50 say--and I wouldn't blink.

The point is, Roberts wasn't as good as his ERA all year, until the end.  The one thing that Roberts unquestionably did well this past season was keep the ball in the ballpark.  He allowed only five home runs in 75 innings (0.6 HR/9IP), which in this day and age is excellent.  The rest of his peripheral stats were pretty unimpressive--more than a hit an inning, nearly four walks per nine innings, 6.1 SO/9IP (roughly the league average), nearly one wild pitch per nine innings.  The lack of home runs allowed, however, allowed him to make a silk purse out of sow's ear, to some extent.

Roberts appears to be hampered by the lack of an effective off-speed pitch.  He's got a couple of plus fastballs, and he's got a decent slider, but it's all hard.  His splitter is his off-speed pitch, but he throws that pretty hard too.  There's simply not enough disparity in pace between his fastball and his other pitches to affect a change of pace.

At this stage, Roberts is decent bulk right-handed relief.  He can be a useful member of an ensemble relief corps, but is unlikely to stand out from the pack without picking up his game a notch.

TO CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT YEAR, HE MUST:

1) cut down on the baserunners allowed

2) ratchet up the strikeouts; the league average is pretty low for a pitcher with hard stuff as good as that of Roberts

3) accomplish #1 and #2 by developing a true off-speed pitch.

NOTES

Pre-All-Star Game ERA was 1.99, but a look at his peripherals begs the question of how (43 H, 4 HR, 20 BB, 29 SO in 49.2 IP)...opponents hit .327 against him after the break, which does partially help explain the 6.04 ERA in the second half...in three games at Yankee Stadium managed to retire two batters and allow two home runs...after getting ahead 1-0 in the count, opposing batters reached base at a .423 clip (117 ABs)...held opposing batters without an extra base hit in two-out/runners in scoring position situations (50 ABs).

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