When he came off the DL, he was terrible for a month. But then, he posted four straight strong outings, allowing one run to the Yankees, one to the Blue Jays, two to the A's, and one to the Angels. Then the roof fell in again, with a bad outing against the Rangers, and a horrible one against the Blue Jays. But then, he was good again; two runs to the Red Sox, three to the Twins, three to Tampa, four to the Yankees, two to the Yankees; then he was bombed by Oakland, and then tossed seven shutout innings against Oakland. Then he was bombed by Boston, the Yankees, and the Blue Jays, before finishing with a 7.1 inning, 5 hit, 2 run outing against the Yankees.

It would be easy to dismiss Lopez as a fluke after looking at those horrible numbers across the board, especially with the knowledge that he's been getting rocked this winter, but let's take a look overall...he started 26 games. He pitched very well in 13 of those starts, and so-so in another 3 or 4. He had a bizarre season. He was either very very good, or he was horrid.

Lopez works with a thin margin. He doesn't have a plus fastball. He depends on deception to get by, mixing in his slider, in particular, to fool hitters, or at least keep them off balance. For some reason, he was obviously unable to produce desired results consistently. In 2002, it was thought that all the pitching in the Mexican League had drained him down the stretch in the AL, but that was not supposed to be the case this past year, though he still pitched an alarming amount in the off-season, including a tour of Japan right after the 2002 season.

This off-season, he has also pitched in Mexico, and the word coming back is that he's been getting rocked a lot. Can the Orioles and their fans expect anything from him in 2004? Considering the way the O's have pursued offense instead of pitching in the off-season, a return to his form of 2002, or even an approximation, would be a godsend.

But can it be hoped for, or is this a realm for only the most optimistic?

If one can put aside his off-season numbers, it can be argued that Lopez can still be a decent number three starter with some tweaking, and possibly a little luck. It may be no accident that a lot more pitchers for the Orioles struggled with Deivi Cruz, Brian Roberts, and Tony Batista around the infield than they had in 2002 with Jerry Hairston, Mike Bordick, and Batista. Lopez' strikeout and walk numbers were solid. His two issues were hits allowed, and home runs. An improved defense can greatly aid one of those numbers.

There were times this season that Lopez seemed so ineffective that I thought there was something wrong with his arm. But this seems to be an isolated memory when his entire season is reviewed, as there doesn't seen to be an ebb and flow to poor performances versus good ones that could lead one to that conclusion.

So what to expect in 2004?

A lot of fans have written him off already. Considering his lack of track record, and the fan's frustrations, this is certainly understandable. Nevertheless, if I had to make a declaration, I'd venture a guess to a return to respectability, except for the off-season problems we've heard about. I'm not really sure what to think Lopez might do this year. We can only hope that it will be something a lot closer to 2002, than 2003.

To Contribute Successfully to the Orioles next Season, He Must:

(1) stay Healthy.

(2) reduce his home runs allowed.

(3) find a way to put more balls in play where fielders can reach them.

(4) develop some consistency, and listen more to the management staff. There were times when it was said that R-Lo would not move away from a pitch that wasn't working.

NOTES: There was only 20 points difference between his night and day BAA this past season, another indicator that his slider wasn't working well enough to fool hitters...cleanup hitters hit .365 and slugged .683 off of him...in two starts at Yankee Stadium, held the Yankees to a .196 BAA and a 2.20 ERA.